I call it dangerous because I’m sure I may end up looking back on these and think to myself “what was I smoking?”. I have a love-hate relationship with prospect rankings. It’s just that they can so debatable, which makes them fun and also makes them mind-numbing. And I think some sites out there just throw together rankings all too willy-nilly, because people like discussing lists and it’s a cheap way to get people to visit and talk about your site. I don’t want to do that. But I have been thinking about this for a while…there have been some players who have had some serious helium-Jess Todd and Daryl Jones for example-and other players have fallen out of the picture. And there also was a draft this past June, in case you haven’t heard. So therefore, I figure my personal rankings could use an update. I’m not going to go as far as 25 like I do in the winter; we’ll just go with 15 for right now w/mini-snippets on why they are there.
- Colby Rasmus-Prolonged early season slump or no slump, Colby’s status has not changed.
- Brett Wallace- Thinking about Rasmus, Wallace and Pujols in the same lineup in the near future is pretty exciting. If that doesn’t work out, maybe they can also flip him for a former Cy Young winner.
- Bryan Anderson-It’s a coin flip between Jaime Garcia and Anderson here for me, but I’ll give the slight edge to Anderson. He’s improved his defense and has not stopped hitting despite the challenges thrown at him. Will he still be around after the All Star break is the question.
- Jaime Garcia-After obliterating AA, he’s had his ups and downs in AAA but is still holding his own.
- Clayton Mortensen-His ERA is fine, but peripherals are actually pretty ugly in AAA, but he’s still getting a lot of groundballs and the Cardinals seem to have challenged him more than anyone in the system.
- Daryl Jones-Daryl fell from grace last year, missing BA’s Top 30 entirely. Since then, he became a baseball player. The gap between what he is now and what he will become (20/20 OF, good OBP, defense) is still high, but nowhere near as high as it was just a year ago.
- Jess Todd will destroy us all. What excites me more than anything about Todd is he’s been so adaptable. He quickly picked up the cutter and seems to be doing the same with a 2-seam fastball. His feel for pitching stands out more than his stuff.
- Pete Kozma-I’m nicer to Kozma than some of my compadres here at the blog. I think he should be at least an average MLB SS, but after a hot April he’s done nothing to impress me at all. Having seen him several times in person and on the local TV station here, I’ve come up with a conspiracy theory–He changed up his swing a little and become a little more of a power hitter out of spring training. Then, at the first sign of a slump he went back to what felt comfortable to him and has become nothing more than a singles hitter. It’s just a theory, and I’m not certain of the validity but the month-by-month numbers seem to bear it out. I think he’s also had a difficult time adjusting to pro ball out of high school, so when you take that into consideration he’s not been that bad.
- Lance Lynn-Here is my first little surprise, I guess Keith Law sold me on his potential to be a solid mid-rotation innings eater, and Chris O’Leary sold me on his durability, which I think is an underrated trait.
- Jon Jay-I think Jay has the potential to be Coco Crisp in his 2004-2005 Cleveland Indians heyday when he was batting near .300, slugging nearly .450 and hitting double digits in the steals column while playing a solid OF. The key word is potential, I’m not saying I’d stake the farm on it. His Peak Translation currently is .288/.355/.457.
- Mitchell Boggs-Three OKish starts, one great start and one horrific start doesn’t seem to justify sending him down. Yes, he wasn’t missing any bats, other than Royals bats but I think he is still potentialy a solid back-end starter and I’m ingtrigued at what he could possibly do in relief.
- Adam Ottavino-I am giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt. His last few stars he’s showing signs of improvement, especially in his last outing. Hopefully he’s finally coming around.
- Joe Mather-I can’t figure him out. He hits like he could be at least a solid average big league corner OF in double A last year and now in triple A. But my gut says he’s more of a platoon/4th OF guy.
- Tyler Herron-I really think it was a mistake pushing him up to AA so quickly. He’s been pretty bleh but he’s only 21 and still has three average pitches and good command, so here he is.
- Nico Vasquez-Jason Motte really probably belongs here, I admit it. But as one of the charter members on the Nico bandwagon I’ll stick him here. Quick Kozma versus Nico Smackdown: Hitting for average: Given Nico’s K’s and Kozma’s contact rate, I’d say advantage Kozma. Hitting for power: Advantage Nico, by a mile. Plate discipline: Kozma. Speed: Kozma, easily. Range: Kozma, again, rather handily but Vasquez is no slouch despite his size. Throwing arm: Kozma, but a little closer. In a perfect world, Kozma will be playing along side Vasquez in the infield by 2011, with Kozma batting 2nd or 9th (assuming LaRussa doesn’t retire), and Vasquez batting 6th.
Update: Perez has been in the majors for over 40 games, so I didn’t include him on the list. If I were to include Perez, I would put him at #2, maybe even #3 after Wallace.
Filed under: Prospect rankings
erik
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roarke49
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Good list, erik.
Mine:
1. Colby
2. Chris Perez (I know he’s currently in the majors, but he’s still under the innings limit to be a prospect)
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Jess Todd
6. The Walrus
7. Clayton Mortensen
8. Mitchell Boggs
9. Pete Kozma
10. Jon Jay
11. Daryl Jones
12. Tyler Herron
13. Joe Mather
14. Fernando Salas
15. Lance Lynn
I agree that people are too hard on Kozma. He is almost two full years younger than Wallace. He has that extra time to develop more power. The most important thing at his position is that he continues to play above average defense. I love it when he hits, too, but I think he’s a solid prospect. It isn’t his fault the Cards took him instead of Porcello.
I definitely think he belongs in the top 10.
Looks pretty good to me. The top 15 are almost exactly my own (I’d replace Herron with David Freese, and see following about Perez) and the order is arbitrary to some extent. Todd, a comment on Koz and Walrus: Koz is NEVER going to have Walrus-like power, or even “major-league average” power in all likelihood. He just doesn’t have the body for it. But if he continues to play a solid shortstop and gets on base, he doesn’t need to.
My list:
1. Raz
2. Bryan Anderson
3. Chris Perez — agree with RB, if you consider Boggs still a prospect, Perez is one too
4. Jess Todd
5. Walrus
6. Jaime Garcia
7. Clayton Mortensen
8. Mitchell Boggs
9. Koz
10. Jon Jay
11. David Freese
12. Daryl Jones — too much can still go wrong here
13. Joe Mather
14. Lance Lynn
15. Nico Vasquez
I agree with Todd regarding Kozma. I think the authors of this site are exceptionally fair in general, but even some seem to highlight Kozma’s shortcomings much more often than his successes. That might just be my perception, of course.
I liked seeing Erik rate Kozma in the top ten, but I disagree that Kozma has done “nothing” to impress since April. He has maintained good defense at one of the most difficult positions on the field. His plate discipline has been fantastic since that early May slump. Those things should count for a lot.
The power is a question, of course, but I don’t know that we should really read much into that during a player’s first full season of pro ball anyway.
Here is my list I posted over at Cards Talk
1. Colby Rasmus- After shoving his way to the top 10 of nearly every prospect ranking with his 29 HR performance in the Texas League last year, Colby came into spring training with an outside shot of making the big club. He performed very well, but no other OFs struggled enough to open the door for him. He was sent to Memphis to start the season, where he struggled mightily. Lately though, Colby has been back to his old tricks posting a .976 OPS for the month of June. His tools grade out as above average to plus-plus across the board. He’s got the highest ceiling of any prospect in our system, and has the results to match those tools. Colby is still the top dog here, and is probably ready as soon as an everday gig opens up in St Louis.
2. Bryan Anderson- Bryan also raised his prospect status with a strong showing in the Texas League last year. He managed to hit very well, despite being one of the youngest players in the league. The two things that stopped him from being an elite prospect last year, defense and power, are still question marks this year. He worked with Matheny in the offseason and has improved his technique. He’s also been very hard to steal on this year, throwing out a great % of runners. As for the bat, he quickly proved that a repeat of the Texas League was too easy for him by posting a .937 OPS in 80 AB’s. He is still only 21, and hitting .330 at AAA with a .862 OPS. His futurre may be with another organization, but he’s a great prospect none the less.
3. Jaime Garcia- Like the previous two, Garcia was also dominate in the Texas League last year at a young age. He too found a repeat of that league too easy (posting a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings while striking out 41). He earned a promotion to Memphis where he pitched very well, he’s hit a bit of a rough patch in the past month or so. Still though, this is a 22 year old lefthander that has been dominant at times in AAA and at the very least hasn’t looked overmatched at any time. He’s not quite ready, but he’s pretty close and has the best ceiling of any pitching prospect in our system. Lefties with the ability to get Ks and GBs by the truckload don’t grow on trees.
4. Chris Perez- Another prospect who dominated the Texas League last year, Perez earned a late season promotion to Memphis where he struggled with his control. Dominant at Memphis to begin the year (22K in 17IP with 9BB), Perez earned a promotion to the big club. The control issue has once again come up, and that may be what keeps him from being a dominant closer. That being said, he is striking out more than 1 man per inning pitched, and has been absolutely dominant in a few appearances. Featuring two plus pitches, he should be a stable of the backend of our bullpen for the next few years.
5. Jess Todd- Talk about a riser. After a strong debut at low A Batavia last year, Todd started this year at high A Palm Beach which quickly proved to be little challenge for the right hander. In 27 IP, he struck out 35, walked only 7, and gave up only 5 ER. That was good enough to earn him a promotion to AA where the beat went on. His Ks are down a bit there, but he still isn’t walking anyone or giving up any runs. Only 13 of both in nearly 70 IP. He’s been named to the Futures Game, Texas League All Star Team, and Team USA. He was also mentioned by Mozeliak as a guy they were keeping an eye on for call up to the big club. Not bad for a guy who was drafted just last year, and pegged by many as a future middle reliever.
6. Daryl Jones- Daryl nearly fell off the prospect map altogether with non productive injury plagued years in recent past. He’s back in a big way. The lefthanded OF, pegged as the best athlete in the system by BA, has finally turned those tools into results. He’s still only 21, and is tearing it up at Palm Beach. He’s got a slash line of .320/.399/.463. He’s doing all of this in one of the more extreme pitcher’s parks in all of the minor leagues as well. He also has 16 SB in 19 tries. There have been Carl Crawford comparisons in the past. Looks like he is putting it together now, and should be in line for a promotion to Springfield before the end of this year.
7. Brett Wallace- Not much to go on as far as results go for the ‘08 first round pick. For what it’s worth, he is hitting .235/.382/.471 so far at Quad Cities. He’s supposedly played well at 3B, and the Cardinals would love if he could stick there although that remains up in the air. Brett’s calling card is his bat. He won the Pac 10 triple crown in back to back seasons, and was a star on the wood bat circuit. His bat should keep him from being in the minors too long, and if he can’t stick at 3B he will become excellent trade bait in the mold of Matt LaPorta.
8. John Jay- Jay burst onto the scene hitting .342 for Quad Cities after being drafted out of Miami. That performance prompted some scouts to peg him as a guy that might win a batting title some day. They like his swing that much. He fell off the radar a bit last year, as he battled injuries and didn’t hit too much although he did earn a promotion to Springfield mid season. This year, however, he’s gained back his prospect status and then some. Not only has he continued to hit for a high average, he’s also displayed more power than ever before (11HR, 28XBH) and played very good CF defense. He may be another guy primed for a trade, as he has Rasmus in front of him and Jones behind him, but he has really upped his value with his performance this year.
9. Clay Mortensen- Clay started the season at AA this year, after really impressing in Spring Training. Duncan really liked the lanky righthander’s sinker, calling it one of the best he’s seen. The results haven’t been as good as last year, where he was able to rack up both Ks and GBs by the truckload, but he did earn a promotion to AAA where he has held his own. Fairly impressive, for a guy who was drafted just last year. He’s been walking far too many batters, which has been a problem for him in the past. He has been able to pitch out of alot of jams, and has posted a 2.70 ERA in 37 AAA innings.
10. Pete Kozma- Pete makes the end of my list in part because he was a first round pick, but mostly because I trust Lunhow. Didn’t do too much to impress last year after being drafted. He did start off very well this year, but he’s cooled off and the power he displayed has all but vanished. Still though, he’s 19. He’s going to take quite awhile to develop. The tools and baseball savvy, that made him a first round pick didn’t go away. He still projects to be an above average defender at the most important position on the field, and an above average hitter for that position. I was tempted to put Nico Vasquez here, but the lack of track record and where Kozma was drafted was the trump card.
I know it never works out this way but the Cards could have an all Farm System lineup playing in the majors in 2011 or 2012
1. Colby Rasmus CF
2. Peter Kozma SS
3. Albert Pujols 1B
4. Rick Ankiel RF
5. Brett Wallace 3B
6. Jon Jay/Daryl Jones LF
7. Yadier Molina C
8. Pitcher
9. Nico Vasquez 2B
This doesn’t even include our utility man Joe Mather. I know this lineup could be constructed a lot differently but this was the best Lefty/Righty balance that I could find.
Yeah, I counted Perez as having been in the majors for over 40 days, otherwise I would’ve had him #2 or #3.
I would have:
flipped Garcia and Anderson,
moved Mortensen behind Todd
dropped Lynn for now
dropped Herron for now
add de la Cruz somewhere around 11 (based on Luhnow’s comments, and his signing bonus)
Put Salas at 15.
Other than the de la Cruz omission, I’m basically nit-picking though.
Great list, Erik.
I know it’s hard to rank the new kids, but how is Wallace 2nd and Vazquez 15th? Those two need to be closer together one way or the other.
This Chris has
1. Rasmus
2. Garcia - LHPs are more valuable than hitting catchers
3. Anderson
4. Brett Wallace. I totally expect him to be the number 1 or 2 prospect to start next year. He will be an all star.
5. Mortenson
6. Todd
7. Kozma- good defensive 300 avg slap hitting ss have value, the Dodgers were thinking about trading Kemp for Jack Wilson.
8. Jay - I like the Crisp comp.
9. Lynn - this guy is a lock to have a Suppan type career.
10. Ottavino - if you told me once he was drafted that he would be at AA this year and do okay (being nice) I would have probably been happy.
11. Boggs - I agree that he should be a serviceable 4 or 5, but could be a great long relief/spot starter guy. Basicall what LaRussa wishes Brad Thompson was.
12. Mather- Duncan of last year and Mather would be the perfect LF combo.
13. SHOCK ALERT….Tyler Henley - I started making the comparison once he was drafted out of the great school of Rice, he is the next Lenny Dykstra. I’ll keep repeating it…the guy is an absolute joy to watch.
14. Jones- I ranked Henley above Jones simply because I like Henley more. Jones to me still could bust. I have serious doubts that he will ever be able to handle AAA pitching. We’ll see. If he kills AA then I’ll shoot him up.
15. NICO. I’m going to throw out a comparison here, see if you guys agree. I picture him as a 2B in the Mark Ellis mold. Anyone..Anyone…Anyone…
16. Craig
17. Herron
18. Motte
19. Salas
20. Freese
21. Sugar Shane
22. de la Cruz
23. Catillo
24. Worrell
25. Latin Guys
Here is my top-10 with explanation/descriptions for the top five.
1.OF Colby Rasmus – Coming into the season, expectations were sky high as many thought he would win a starting job out of ST. Turns out that none of the current major league outfielders had a bad spring and Colby was sent packing to Memphis. After a prolonged slump, Colby got out of it and started hitting like the top-10 prospect experts were labeling him as. He may not hit like Colby, but he’ll be a Carlos Beltran-like player.
MLB Comparison: Carlos Beltran / OF / New York Mets
2.C Bryan Anderson – Despite being one of the youngest players in each league he has played, he has consistently hit. Add onto that his improving defense as well as the fact he hits left handed and it really is no surprise he is this high on my list. If he keeps hitting and plays solid defense, the Cards will be in quite a quandary with what do with Anderson or Yadier Molina
MLB Comparison: Lefty, Poor Man’s Joe Mauer / C / Minnesota Twins
3.LHP Jaime Garcia – After coming out of nowhere as a 22nd round draft pick, Jaime returned well from injury and played well. While he still needs some more work, playing in the big leagues next year isn’t out of the question. LHP are extremely valueable and having one that can be a future 2/3 in your rotation is a great asset and can be a great trade bait.
MLB Comparison:
4.3B Brett Wallace – At this point, his ranking is all there because of his projection. The difference between him and Darryl Jones is the higher chance that Brett will reach his potential. Brett can be a consistent 30 HR, 100 RBI in the big leagues while playing solid defense.
MLB Comparison: Miguel Cabrera / 3B / Detroit Tigers
5.RHP Jess Todd – So far so good for Jess, but when he gets the promotion to AAA, you’d have to wonder how he’ll fare. He’s done well so far, almost a little to well and you have to begin to wonder if he is overachieving and may want to consider trading him while his value is high. You also don’t want to sell like him the Cards did with Dan Haren.
MLB Comparison: Jeff Suppan / RHP / Milwaukee Brewers
6.OF Daryl Jones
7.RHP Clayton Mortenson
8.SS Pete Kozma
9.OF Jon Jay
10.RHP Lance Lynn
Here’s my list of prospects I will be watching for the future, not necessarily the best right now, but I think they have that potential:
1. Colby
2. Brett Wallace
3. Bryan Anderson
4. Garcia
5. Perez
6. Jesse Todd
7. Roberto Pina
8. Daryl Jones
9. Steve Hill
10. Clayton Mortenson
11. Nico Vazquez
12. Santo Franco
13. Jon Edwards
14. Lance Lynn
15. Jon Jay
16. Castillo
17. Fernando Salas
18. Pete Kozma
19. Tyler Henley
20. Allen Craig
21. David Freese
22. Shane Robinson
23. Jason Motte
24. Tyler Herron
25. Mitch Boggs
26. Mark Worrell
27. Adam Ottavino
28. Mannbel
29. Joe Mather
30. Nick Stavinoha
My attempt at a list:
1 Ramsus
2 Anderson
3 Garcia
4 Todd
5 Mortensen
6 Jones
7 Castillo
8 Jay
9 Kozma
10 Mather
I did not add the FY guys on purpose.
Not trying to be a bummer,
But with the deals Milwaukee and now Chicago pulled off, how many of these guys are going to be dealt in the next two months?
I, for one, am extremely excited about the possibility that Wainer and Carp coming back COULD mean that MO doesn’t feel he needs to play ‘top this’ and go after Bedard, etc…
I honestly can’t see Garcia or Rasmus being traded unless Mozelaik gets blown away by an offer. Bryan Anderson is a canidate to be traded because Yadier Molina is blocking him. Wallace can’t get traded for a year. Kozma can’t be traded until about the 15th, day after he was signed. Draftees who are signed have a one year probation period, where they can’t be traded. I don’t expect any deals to go down unless the Cards decide to gell in sell mode.
One thing that this exercise shows us is that there are a lot of potentially useful guys in the system — enough that Mo really could trade several of ‘em without leaving the system terminally thin. Exercise for the reader: with the lists set up this way, who’s the most plausible trade bait? That is, who’s the player highest on these lists (and therefore most likely to reel in some value in a trade) that you’d be willing to deal? Let’s see if Mo sees things the same way we do.
I want to be clear that I was never suggesting that Kozma would have power equal to Wallace. My comment was simply that they are playing at the same level, and Kozma has more time to get to the big leagues (develop).
Power is usually the last thing to develop. If Kozma can hit double digit HRs at 19, in pro ball, with woodbats, and can stick at SS, he’s on the right track. That’s my point.
If you are trying to project power, I look at extra base hits. If they’re consistently hitting 2B and 3B at a young age, they’re more likely to hit for power as they fill out.
As for trade value, Anderson has a quite a bit of trade value as he hits well left-handed and plays solid defense. Pete Kozma could get us a Kalil Greene like player, but not a difference maker. SS’s are at a premium and getting rid of him might not be in our best interest. Jon Jay is nothing more than a 4th outfielder, so shopping him around seems like a good idea, but probably nothing great. Jess Todd is an intriguing player, because I am really wondering whether or not he is overachieving. His value right now is incredibly high and it might not ever be higher.
I think our best trade bait at this point would be Anderson and Todd. I love Todd, but I’m concerned with his elbow throwing that many sliders as a starter.