Future Redbirds

He caught my eye over a year ago when I stopped by the Quad Cities. Jones has often been noted as having the tools to be a tremendous player but the questions of whether it would ever turn into results. A year after being drafted, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the 5th best prospect in the Cardinals system saying:

The best athlete in the system and it’s not even close. More importantly Jones made incredible progress in translating his tools into skills in 2006, showing a much more mechanically sound swing that allowed him to make better contact and tap into his power potential. Plus-plus runner who should become a good center fielder and dangerous base stealer once he learns how to harness his speed.

Of course he followed it up with:

Jones remains remarkably raw in nearly every aspect of the game. Pitch recognition remains a big weakness and breaking balls still tie him up in knots. Has spent time in all three outfield positions because his defensive instincts are lagging.

Which pretty much jives with what I’ve seen of Jones and all the reports on him. Defensively, he has the speed and arm to be a tremendous centerfielder. Offensively, the strides he’s made this season (in a pitcher’s park nonetheless) dwarf anything he’s done previously with the bat. Did I mention he’s only 21? I’m not going to make this into a full fledged profile of Jones but let’s look at his stats this season.

In 278 PAs (at the end of June), Jones had a line of .322/.404/.477 but of course the question I’m going to ask is if it’s for real or if he’s just lucky. Before we address that though, he’s hitting in a park that suppresses power and he’s hitting awfully well. If nothing else, he deserves credit for doing something right — luck be damned. Has he made real changes to his game though?

He’s walking more, which you would hope is related to him getting better at pitch recognition. He’s crossed that magical 10% threshold that I like for batters so patience at the plate isn’t really a problem. The walk rate has gone up for two consecutive years (6.5 to 8.8 to 10.1) so it looks like the improvements he’s making are real and sustainable. He’s still striking out around 20% of the time but that bothers me less than it does others. When you are getting on base 40% of the time feel free to make your outs by standing on your head as far as I’m concerned.

He has a BABIP of .397 that speaks to a good helping of luck. A few qualifiers though. First, he’s hitting significantly more line drives this year — nearly double compared to last year. Combine that with more flyballs as well and he’s got more loft when he makes contact. With a 21% line drive rate, you could peg him for a BABIP around .320 if he was in the majors. Add in lesser defense at High-A and the fact that Jones is a fast runner and you could conceivable put his expected BABIP around .350. I’m playing loose and fast with the numbers but they’re close. Still we’re talking about 10-15 hits that should probably be outs based on the batted ball info. Think .280/.370/.450 for his line. (As a 20 year old at Palm Beach Rasmus hit .254/.345/.404 for whatever that’s worth.)

Jones isn’t as good as his rate line shows right now but he has the potential to put up those kinds of numbers and play some stellar defense. The organization seems to be taking it slow with him, which is the right move given the number of outfielders we have in the upper minors and Jones’ age. The long term outlook is still bright for Jones who has the athleticism to be an All Star outfielder. There’s still a significant gap between what he can be and what he is but he’s done a lot to bridge that in 2008. From an organizational standpoint, I’d be sorely tempted to label him the 3rd best position prospect behind Rasmus and Anderson. There are others who are closer (Jon Jay, Allen Craig) but no one represents the upside of Jones as a complete player both offensively, defensively and on the bases.