Comments on: Post draft Q and A with Keith Law http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:11:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: Steve Hancock http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19534 Steve Hancock Fri, 04 Jul 2008 20:56:01 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19534 Just wondering, if Jeff Luhnow were in charge of the Cardinals draft the year they drafted Albert Pujols, might they have drafted him in a higher round than the 13th based on his statistics at the junior college he attended? Did anyone consider him to have a low ceiling? Just wondering, if Jeff Luhnow were in charge of the Cardinals draft the year they drafted Albert Pujols, might they have drafted him in a higher round than the 13th based on his statistics at the junior college he attended? Did anyone consider him to have a low ceiling?

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19406 Beau Wed, 02 Jul 2008 02:37:33 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19406 Erik: I can understand you being grateful to Keith for being kindly responsive. Since he must cover 30 teams and the best known amateurs, Keith cannot consider draft strategies of individual teams at lower rounds. I supplemented his views with some positive ones about lower picks and concurred on Gorgen. Happy to decamp. Erik: I can understand you being grateful to Keith for being kindly responsive. Since he must cover 30 teams and the best known amateurs, Keith cannot consider draft strategies of individual teams at lower rounds. I supplemented his views with some positive ones about lower picks and concurred on Gorgen. Happy to decamp.

]]> By: erik http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19389 erik Tue, 01 Jul 2008 23:21:47 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19389 I've been away all day, just now catching this. Beau---I'd highly appreciate it if you showed more respect to our guest. Keith took the time and the effort away from his family and job to answer my questions, and you're just going on and on and on, being disagreeable for the sake of being disagreeable, at least that's the way it's coming across. Cool it, please or take your opinions elsewhere. I’ve been away all day, just now catching this.

Beau—I’d highly appreciate it if you showed more respect to our guest. Keith took the time and the effort away from his family and job to answer my questions, and you’re just going on and on and on, being disagreeable for the sake of being disagreeable, at least that’s the way it’s coming across. Cool it, please or take your opinions elsewhere.

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19384 Beau Tue, 01 Jul 2008 21:47:37 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19384 To put some of the discussion in perspective. Mr. Law and Beau agree about various things. Keith likes Wallace, Lynn, and Vasquez, Ferrera, Kulik and Shepherd. No disagreement. Beau and Keith share surprise by round 4 selection of 5’10” RHP Gorgen. The guy was fantastic at U-Cal-Irvine, but picks like this perplex us. Beau might have instead chosen someone like 6’8” southpaw Duncan out of Georgia Tech, for a college hurler with physical scope for improvement. Yet given the progress of Skip Schumacker, Jess Todd, and Shane Robertson, Beau prefers to look the other way when the Cards select an athlete of modest size, since they take upside gambles at lower rounds. The Cards likely see Gorgen as a high floor guy, rather than high ceiling. Beau even shared Keith’s doubts last June about Kozma. Prep shortstops in the first round often do not reach the majors. Kozma does not have an edge from switch-hitting, super speed, or power. Nonetheless, Kozma seems to be holding his own in the Midwest League and the Cards have to be feeling good about their choice. Keith calls the draft choices conservative, with few having impact potential. Beau is a bit more optimistic and sees interesting potentials in Petersen, Curtis, Fornataro, Luna, Castellanos, Swinson, and Harris. (Luna may compare to Stavinoha and Steven Hill, effective right-swinging hitters out of Texas.) Additional draftees sort into: • Collegiates with strong stats (e.g., Bravo who went 21-1 at an NAIA school; Curt Smith). • Candidates for a rebound (e.g., Frevert) • Young guys who may take time to hone their skills (e.g., Swinson, Mateo, Bruening, Jimenez, Siegrist, and others from junior colleges and high schools) (in recent years, pitchers like Garceau, Jaime Garcia, and Additon have been found at low rounds). • Collegiates who will at least contribute to minor league teams. In 2002, the Cards found sinker-baller Brad Thompson at Round 16, so useful players can turn up beneath high rounds. A root question: do the Cards have a reasonable gameplan for selecting US amateurs??? In 2008, is it Wallace, Vasquez, Ferrara, and that’s it, finis? Are the rest of the choices devoid of hope of ML impact or contribution? In Beau’s opinion, the draft choices represent a combination of aims and ideas, with many reasonable choices. Admittedly, there seem no low round picks who will command a very high bonus, to the best of public knowledge. Fans enjoy high bonuses for low rounds, like $1.45M for Hawksworth, rd 28 in 2001. Big bonuses suggest big talent and nourish loyal fans with hope. Overall, however, there seem a fair share of athletes who could become ML candidates, some day hence. A Cards’ web site seems an apt place to supplement Keith’s comments with additional ones of a hopeful outlook. To put some of the discussion in perspective. Mr. Law and Beau agree about various things. Keith likes Wallace, Lynn, and Vasquez, Ferrera, Kulik and Shepherd. No disagreement.
Beau and Keith share surprise by round 4 selection of 5’10” RHP Gorgen. The guy was fantastic at U-Cal-Irvine, but picks like this perplex us. Beau might have instead chosen someone like 6’8” southpaw Duncan out of Georgia Tech, for a college hurler with physical scope for improvement. Yet given the progress of Skip Schumacker, Jess Todd, and Shane Robertson, Beau prefers to look the other way when the Cards select an athlete of modest size, since they take upside gambles at lower rounds. The Cards likely see Gorgen as a high floor guy, rather than high ceiling.
Beau even shared Keith’s doubts last June about Kozma. Prep shortstops in the first round often do not reach the majors. Kozma does not have an edge from switch-hitting, super speed, or power. Nonetheless, Kozma seems to be holding his own in the Midwest League and the Cards have to be feeling good about their choice.
Keith calls the draft choices conservative, with few having impact potential. Beau is a bit more optimistic and sees interesting potentials in Petersen, Curtis, Fornataro, Luna, Castellanos, Swinson, and Harris. (Luna may compare to Stavinoha and Steven Hill, effective right-swinging hitters out of Texas.) Additional draftees sort into:
• Collegiates with strong stats (e.g., Bravo who went 21-1 at an NAIA school; Curt Smith).
• Candidates for a rebound (e.g., Frevert)
• Young guys who may take time to hone their skills (e.g., Swinson, Mateo, Bruening, Jimenez, Siegrist, and others from junior colleges and high schools) (in recent years, pitchers like Garceau, Jaime Garcia, and Additon have been found at low rounds).
• Collegiates who will at least contribute to minor league teams. In 2002, the Cards found sinker-baller Brad Thompson at Round 16, so useful players can turn up beneath high rounds.
A root question: do the Cards have a reasonable gameplan for selecting US amateurs??? In 2008, is it Wallace, Vasquez, Ferrara, and that’s it, finis? Are the rest of the choices devoid of hope of ML impact or contribution?
In Beau’s opinion, the draft choices represent a combination of aims and ideas, with many reasonable choices. Admittedly, there seem no low round picks who will command a very high bonus, to the best of public knowledge. Fans enjoy high bonuses for low rounds, like $1.45M for Hawksworth, rd 28 in 2001. Big bonuses suggest big talent and nourish loyal fans with hope. Overall, however, there seem a fair share of athletes who could become ML candidates, some day hence.
A Cards’ web site seems an apt place to supplement Keith’s comments with additional ones of a hopeful outlook.

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19370 Beau Tue, 01 Jul 2008 19:16:37 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19370 Beau would forthrightly acknowledge he has NOT seen Bogany play (and not seen lots of other amateurs for that matter). Yet Jared got scholarships to two elite college baseball programs, Louisiana State and Arizona State, so he must have at some point have encouraged baseball coaches vastly more knowledgable than the lowly likes of Beau. In 2005, Bogany ranked in the Top 200 and Baseball America reported "in terms of pure tools, Bogany ranks just behind Jay Bruce and Jordan Danks. But he's more of a raw athlete than polished player, so he'll be somewhat of a project. He's a plus runner with a quick bat and lots of power potential. He has a long way to go to hit better pitching, however. He plays a fine center field and has average arm strength. One scout compares him to Torii Hunter, who had a similar profile coming out of an Arkansas high school and required six years in the minors before putting it all together." Bogany hit .300+ at LSU as a freshman. He did not do well at ASU as a sophmore; this is plausible, because its a deep team and if his game was rough, there would be someone to grab the playing time. He went to a Cards tryout camp and showed enough batting practice prowess to warrant an invite. On the other hand, 29 other teams could have drafted him. He's a low cost, long-shot project. But some have seen upside. Beau would forthrightly acknowledge he has NOT seen Bogany play (and not seen lots of other amateurs for that matter). Yet Jared got scholarships to two elite college baseball programs, Louisiana State and Arizona State, so he must have at some point have encouraged baseball coaches vastly more knowledgable than the lowly likes of Beau.

In 2005, Bogany ranked in the Top 200 and Baseball America reported “in terms of pure tools, Bogany ranks just behind Jay Bruce and Jordan Danks. But he’s more of a raw athlete than polished player, so he’ll be somewhat of a project. He’s a plus runner with a quick bat and lots of power potential. He has a long way to go to hit better pitching, however. He plays a fine center field and has average arm strength. One scout compares him to Torii Hunter, who had a similar profile coming out of an Arkansas high school and required six years in the minors before putting it all together.”

Bogany hit .300+ at LSU as a freshman. He did not do well at ASU as a sophmore; this is plausible, because its a deep team and if his game was rough, there would be someone to grab the playing time. He went to a Cards tryout camp and showed enough batting practice prowess to warrant an invite.

On the other hand, 29 other teams could have drafted him. He’s a low cost, long-shot project. But some have seen upside.

]]> By: Keith Law http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19367 Keith Law Tue, 01 Jul 2008 18:33:41 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19367 I've seen Bogany many times. He's not very good, and not anywhere near as toolsy as you imply above, Beau. I'm not saying they shouldn't have signed him, just that he's not really an upside play. I’ve seen Bogany many times. He’s not very good, and not anywhere near as toolsy as you imply above, Beau. I’m not saying they shouldn’t have signed him, just that he’s not really an upside play.

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19357 Beau Tue, 01 Jul 2008 17:14:21 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19357 Mr. Law seems to equate collegiate athletes at low rounds with low upside. If thought about as a generality, this view has some reasonable aspects to commend it. Teams can pick off stud athletes coming out of high school and junior colleges, reducing the talent pool coming out of 4 year colleges otherwise. Teams will also try to select the most promising collegiates high in the draft. Therefore, lower round collegiates are intrinsically going to be, you guessed it, talents apt for low rounds, a tautology. Yet, college juniors and seniors are also going to tend to be older and more ready for pro ball, and require fewer years for training. They will cost less in bonuses and in training costs. So it can make economic sense to select some as the Cards do. Josh Kinney is a recent year, rare example of a college senior from a small school who rose from undrafted free agent to successful ML reliever. Its probably best not to assume high school athletes are the good draft picks and collegians at lower rounds are innately bad picks, though many fans will do this. The reality is murkier. The Cards integrate their ranking of amateurs weighing multiple factors and probabilistic outcomes. With more money going into scouting and into bonuses, they have become more effective in their selections in recent years. Mr. Law seems to equate collegiate athletes at low rounds with low upside. If thought about as a generality, this view has some reasonable aspects to commend it. Teams can pick off stud athletes coming out of high school and junior colleges, reducing the talent pool coming out of 4 year colleges otherwise. Teams will also try to select the most promising collegiates high in the draft. Therefore, lower round collegiates are intrinsically going to be, you guessed it, talents apt for low rounds, a tautology.

Yet, college juniors and seniors are also going to tend to be older and more ready for pro ball, and require fewer years for training. They will cost less in bonuses and in training costs. So it can make economic sense to select some as the Cards do.

Josh Kinney is a recent year, rare example of a college senior from a small school who rose from undrafted free agent to successful ML reliever.

Its probably best not to assume high school athletes are the good draft picks and collegians at lower rounds are innately bad picks, though many fans will do this. The reality is murkier. The Cards integrate their ranking of amateurs weighing multiple factors and probabilistic outcomes. With more money going into scouting and into bonuses, they have become more effective in their selections in recent years.

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19349 Beau Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:38:34 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19349 Another comment in relation to upside potential. The Cards signed toolsy OF Jared Bogany as an UDFA. In 2005, Bogany was ranked just behind Darryl Jones as a Texas amateur in BA, both athletic, but diamonds in the rough. Bogany went to LSU for a year, but the coach was fired, so he moved to Arizona State U, where they did not have time to invest in him as the Cards have done with Jones. Bogany landed at small Lubbock Christian U in 2008, and the Cards were able to sign him after the draft, no longer sought after by other teams. In 2005, Bogany excited scouts, 3 years later he is forgotten. In terms of physical potential, he should be about the same. If the Cards can give him enough at bats, maybe he could develop. So he's an upside play, even after 50 rounds. But he's not trendy and the Cards probably did not bonus him $4.25M like Oakland did with Inoa. Another comment in relation to upside potential. The Cards signed toolsy OF Jared Bogany as an UDFA. In 2005, Bogany was ranked just behind Darryl Jones as a Texas amateur in BA, both athletic, but diamonds in the rough. Bogany went to LSU for a year, but the coach was fired, so he moved to Arizona State U, where they did not have time to invest in him as the Cards have done with Jones. Bogany landed at small Lubbock Christian U in 2008, and the Cards were able to sign him after the draft, no longer sought after by other teams.

In 2005, Bogany excited scouts, 3 years later he is forgotten. In terms of physical potential, he should be about the same. If the Cards can give him enough at bats, maybe he could develop. So he’s an upside play, even after 50 rounds. But he’s not trendy and the Cards probably did not bonus him $4.25M like Oakland did with Inoa.

]]> By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19345 Beau Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:27:31 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19345 Another exception to Mr. Law's suggestion the Cards favor collegiates based on their statistics is a southpaw reliever, Freeman, drafted in the low 30s. At U Kansas, he had an ERA over 8 this spring. But Freeman has fine velocity and we will work with him to try to harness his potential. Rookie ML pitcher Mitch Boggs had a mediocre stats as a reliever when a junior at the Univ. of Georgia. But the Cards selected him in the 5th round in 2005 owing to arm strength and potential. Another exception to Mr. Law’s suggestion the Cards favor collegiates based on their statistics is a southpaw reliever, Freeman, drafted in the low 30s. At U Kansas, he had an ERA over 8 this spring. But Freeman has fine velocity and we will work with him to try to harness his potential.

Rookie ML pitcher Mitch Boggs had a mediocre stats as a reliever when a junior at the Univ. of Georgia. But the Cards selected him in the 5th round in 2005 owing to arm strength and potential.

]]> By: Bird Land » Blog Archive » First Pick Coming, Other Picks Already Going http://futureredbirds.com/2008/06/30/post-draft-q-and-a-with-keith-law/#comment-19340 Bird Land » Blog Archive » First Pick Coming, Other Picks Already Going Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:16:26 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1469#comment-19340 [...] Keith Law offers answers to Future Redbirds questions over at the most comprehensive Cards minor-league blog going. Among his assertions is this: Wallace [...] [...] Keith Law offers answers to Future Redbirds questions over at the most comprehensive Cards minor-league blog going. Among his assertions is this: Wallace [...]

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