Future Redbirds

I sat down to take a look at a couple of Motte’s outings. I’ve probably watched Motte throw about 10 innings on video so far this year so I’m pretty familiar with him. I charted the pitches from 6/8 & 6/10 to see whether he’s made any adjustments over the course of the season. The 6/8 outing was excellent where Motte strikes out 4 hitters allowing just a double to JR Towles. The 6/10 game left a little more to be desired. I’ll talk about that more at the end but let’s get the pitch sequence and notes out of the way.

Notation: FB - fastball, SL - slider, F - foul, B - ball, CS - called strike, SS - swinging strike, ##s indicate mph

6/8/08 -
7th Inning:

• Saccomanno: 1-FB(F) 93, 2-FB(SS) 95, 3-FB(SS) strikeout
• Notes: Motte replaced Jaime Garcia with 2 outs in the 7th. The announcers repeatedly mentioned that the MEM gun was 2-3mph slow. I’m writing what was on the gun so mentally add to that number throughout this entire post.

8th Inning:

• Sadler: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(B), 3-FB(B) 97, 4-FB(F), 5-FB(SS) 97 strikeout
• Gorneault: 1-SL(CS), 2-SL(CS), 3-FB(SS) strikeout
• Towles: 1-FB(CS) 98, 1-SL(double)
• Ramirez: 1-FB(CS), 2-SL(B), 3-FB(SS), 4-FB(F), 5-FB(F), 6-FB(SS) strikeout
• Notes: The ump gave Motte about 3 inches on both sides of the plate, which helped tremendously. Towles was fooled on the slider and was ahead of the pitch just barely keeping it in the third baseline. Yes the slider does exist, more on that later.

6/10/08 -
8th Inning:

• Blanco: 1-FB(single)
• Patterson: 1-FB(B), 2-FB(single)
• Pie: 1-FB(F), 2-FB(bunt)
• Murton: 1-FB(B), 2-SL(CS) 82, 3-video cuts out (strike), 4-FB(B), 5-FB(B), 6-FB(F), 7-FB(SS) 96 strikeout
• Micah Hoffpauir: 1-FB(SS), 2-FB(B), 3-FB(F), 4-FB(B), 5-SL(F), 6-FB(SS) strikeout
• Kroeger: 1-FB(B), 2-SL(SS), 3-FB(B) 97, 4-FB(F), 5-FB(B) 6-FB(F) 94, 7-FB(F), 8-SL(B) 76 walk
• McGehee: 1-SL(flyout)
• Notes: The single by patterson was a good pitch — middle of the shins inside the plate — that was golfed for a hit. The Pie bunt was bungled by C Mark Johnson. The second pitch to Murton was originally called a fastball by the announcers until they saw the gun. How they thought it was a fastball is beyond me — I picked up slider from the moment it left his hand. The 2nd pitch to Hoffpauir was a wild pitch that tailed back in on the left hander. Johnson couldn’t handle the pitch but it wasn’t particuarly wild per se. The flyout to CF looks easy by Rasmus who gets a great first step and just glides under the ball effortlessly.

Scouting Report

Fastball - 70/70

Slider - 40/45

Command - 45/50

AOFP: 58

ETA: mid-2009

Motte’s fastball is blazing fast but relatively straight. When he locates it down in the zone, it’s a plus-plus pitch. He has enough pure velocity to blow it by most minor leaguers but that will be harder to do at the next level. When he does miss it’s typically shoulder high and gets fouled out of play. He may have left 2-3 of the 30 above fastballs over the plate. There’s not really any growth in the fastball itself unless he suddenly develops movement on the pitch, which is the only thing holding it back from being an 80.

The slider isn’t a myth but it is very much a work in progress. My biggest complaint is that it doesn’t break away from right-handers enough. It’s got some decent vertical movement (which almost made me think it was a curve the first time I saw it) but the lateral break leaves a lot to be desired. I’d almost question if he’s even putting the right/enough torque on the ball when it leaves his hand. The other problem is that it’s pretty easy to recognize when he’s throwing the slider. The arm action slows a little and the arm slot just isn’t quite the same.

The command issues extend to both pitches. He needs to locate his fastball down in the zone more often. He likes to move up around the shoulders to eyes and get batters to swing under it but I don’t think that’s going to be an effective strategy against major leaguers who would probably lay off the pitch. It’s not that he’s leaving too many over the fat part of the plate, it’s that he’s not throwing enough in the bottom half of the strike zone to get selective hitters out. The slider needs considerable work. He can’t command it yet and it was far more prone to turning into a meatball pitch.

I’ve gone both extremes on Motte — liking him considerably and being very disappointed with what I’ve seen. I’m somewhere in the middle now. I have his AOFP at 58 mainly because he’s so new to pitching. If he improves his slider more than I expect or finds some movement on his fastball, he’ll become a closer caliber reliever. Currently he’s a fringe setup man (AOFP 52) despite the awesome velocity. Hitters who come in and swing early in the count are likely to be successful as he tries to pump fastballs down the plate. The comparison player that keeps coming to mind (although I’m not sure I like it) is Kyle Farnsworth who also featured a great fastball and not a whole lot else. They’re similar in terms of stuff but not necessarily demeanor or build. Motte has some serious potential still but I’d expect him to settle in as a middle reliever mid next year and a good setup man by mid-2010.