A rare Saturday afternoon post.
At least one expert really likes the Cardinals draft-Keith Law.
St. Louis got several great value picks: Brett Wallace, who might be the best pure college bat in the draft; Lance Lynn, a solid mid-rotation guy who’s very aggressive with his fastball; and Niko Vasquez, who fell because of the silly notion that shortstops need to be average or better runners. It’s a high-probability draft, as Wallace, Lynn and Scott Gorgen are all extremely likely to be big leaguers; Vasquez has a very high chance of becoming an everyday big leaguer relative to most high school hitters. The Cardinals’ draft is missing just one thing: upside. They draft conservatively, and this group of players is no exception, although they could certainly address that issue on Day 2. Incidentally, I know the Cardinals are taking a lot of criticism for not drafting Melville, but as mentioned earlier, Melville had indicated to teams that he wanted top-15 pick money, making him unsignable and a potentially wasted pick had the Cardinals selected him in the compensation or second round, when there were talented signable players available such as Lynn and Vasquez.
Now if something can be worked out with the Navy and Mitch Harris, and they can sign Devin Shepherd, Xavier Scruggs and Anthony Ferrara and this draft looks pretty good, in my opinion. I do however agree in his assessment about upside, or the lack thereof. It was a conservative draft in a lot of ways.
For fun, here’s a team I drew up of the players selected. The All Draft Team, if you will-
C-Blake Murphy, Western Carolina. Excellent sleeper here. Highly regarded out of high school, insane college numbers, good arm behind the plate. How did he fall as far as he did?
1B-Xavier Scruggs, UNLV. Put up monster power numbers, albeit in a hitter’s division and in a hitter’s park. FWIW, Boyd’s Park Factor for Lupton Stadium is 121. Triple Crown winner of his conference. BA’s 197th draft prospect.
2B-Aaron Luna, Rice. Could be a tough sign as his power numbers were down this year from his previous two seasons. Hard-nosed player, like his former and hopefully future teammate Tyler Henley.
3B-Brett Wallace, Arizona St. Once signed, does he now become the best pure hitter in the system? Colby, when he’s on, is probably his equal in the hitting department, and he’s a premium defender at a premium position. But with Wallace we’re talking about a someone who is a relative safe bet to hit for average, 20-25 homers and post an OBP of .380-.400 per season. Albert is looking forward to the protection, I am sure. It’s fun to think of an Pujols-Wallace-Rasmus trio in the middle of the order, and that’s gonna happen in the near future if all goes to plan. :Giddy: Few believe he can stick at 3B, but some do. More importantly, Wallace does. Even if he’s a -10 at the position, having his bat in the lineup is worth it.
SS-Niko Vasquez, Durango HS, Las Vegas, NV. Potential 5-6 hitter in the middle infield. He may not have the range to stay at SS, but I’ll put him here for now. Far from a finished product, but he if he lives up what scouts think he is able to do, he should be a guy who hits .275 with 20-25 homers a year.
LF-Shane Peterson, Long Beach St. Earlier I sort of cracked on his power, or lack thereof, but he played in a very tough park (PF 78 according to Boyd’s) and still managed nearly a .200 isolated power. Yes, he is different. .506 OBPs are hard to overlook. He could be a “tweener”, or he could be just your non-typical good corner OF. When you get on base at that clip, you don’t have to have all the power in the world. A spot will be found for you in the lineup. I admit, I’m warming up to this pick.
CF-Charlie Swauger, The Citadel. I don’t know much about high schooler Michael Swinson, so I’ll go with numbers here. Swauger has them. 19% walk rate, 51/35 BB/K rate, .243 isolated power, all in a very tough park.
RF-Devin Shepherd, RF, Col of Southern Nevada. Here’s hoping tools lead to game, and he overcomes the makeup questions. I don’t the Cardinals would have drafted him if they didn’t think he could. Matt Blood had this entry on Shepherd on draft day :
Shepherd has been up and down in scouts minds, ever since he came on the radar. He has the tools to play at the major league level but has just never been able to put it all together. Shepherd was introduced as a right fielder. He had big workouts in high school and got a reputation as a showcase performer and had excellent workouts this week for the Cardinals, hitting nine home runs with a wood bat according to one source.
SP-Lance Lynn, RHP, Ole Miss. I know some of you are less in love with this pick because of his perceived lack of upside. Maybe that’s fair, but I don’t think it ever hurts to have someone who can give you 200 innings of league average pitching or slightly above. If he could develop a third pitch, he could be a very solid #3, if not he’s a solid #4.
SP-Mitch Harris, RHP, Navy. Let’s keep our fingers crossed on this one. Perfect pitcher’s frame, throws in the low to mid nineties with a slider and a change, all that have the potential to be at least average. Struck out nearly 12/9 in his college career, BA rated him the 2nd best senior in the draft behind Josh Fields. Hopefully, some strings can be pulled.
SP-Scott Gorgen, RHP, UC-Irvine. I’ve heard conflicting reports on how good his stuff really is. I’ve heard his fastball is 89-92 with good sink from his draft report, and then BA says he sits more in the 86-88 range. One thing they all agree upon is his circle changeup is one of the better ones in the draft. Not a real high ceiling, maybe 4th starter or middle reliever according to some.
SP-Anthony Ferrara, LHP, Riverview HS, Odessa FL. There are some questions about his injury history with his shoulder and durability. He has a fastball in the 89-91 MPH range to go with a hard curve and a changeup, and plus command.
SP-Ryan Kulik, LHP, Rowan. Absolutely obliterated DIII competition. 144 K’s to 24 BB in 94 innings. 89-91 MPH fastball, throws 94 out of the bullpen.
CL-Miguel Flores, RHP, Cerritos JC. 92 MPH fastball, sharp slider, strike thrower.
SU-Brian Bruening, RHP, Grayson Co. JC. Throws up to 95, but pretty wild.
SU-Jason Buursma, RHP, Bucknell. How can you not root for a submariner?
I’m not sure at the moment anyone in this draft is going to be a true closer in a draft that was full of closers.
So there you have it. It may not be perfect, and obviously we’ll know more as these players hopefully all sign and begin to play.
I still have one question-Who in the world is Eric Fornataro?!?!?!?!
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft, Aaron Luna, Anthony Ferrara, Blake Murhpy, Brett Wallace, Charlie Swauger, Lance Lynn, Miguel Flores, Mitch Harris, Niko Vasquez, Ryan Kulik, Shane Peterson, Xavier Scruggs
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I know the pipeline of second basemen is thin — and the Cardinals really need someone better than Adam Kennedy right now — but I was surprised at the number of draftees that project better at second base.
Draft ‘em all and let God sort ‘em out, I guess.
I haven’t gone through the list to see if there are enough jobs but I agree that it’s brutal waiting to see what we’ve got. Can’t wait for all the second-half roster moves.
Thanks for all the coverage.
I’m still not sure I know who Eric Fornataro is, but check this link: http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/sports/baseball.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-06-07-0070.html
Interesting story, at the minimum. It sounds like he’s not a sure thing to sign, although he seems to be leaning toward doing so. From the description, he has enough of an arm to take a chance on, although he may still be an overdraft.
I wonder whether he and Kulik, among others, are products of that scheme the front office hatched to have fans do some scouting for them. That was one of the most interesting things I’ve seen in the Luhnzeliak administration so far — and that’s saying something.
At second glance, maybe there wasn’t so many second basemen afterall. I was mainly thinking of Vasquez and Curtis but one’s a high school player and one’s a college player. Nevermind.
Still anxious to see some numbers on these guys, though.
Curtis is a 2B
Luna profiles much better at 2B….as a LF he is a 5th OF’er type
Castellanos seems to be a 2B.
Lilley is all but limited to 2B
Sizemore and Boras are both 2B..but unlikely signs
I am not sure about the future of the SS taken out of P.R…I would like to learn more about him..so had nice arm action and swing in his video.
The navy, unlike the other academies does not allow you to play until AFTER you put your time in and I heard they are pretty strict about it.
Did they know that?
i think they did…its one of those things where they still wanted to take the chance…apparently he is a real nice pitcher….i think he has to serve 2 years…i could be wrong
5 years, he signed up for it.
wow…five sucks…that means he couldnt start pro ball till he was 27…hope they change their stance
The Navy won’t allow the alternate service time (which is what the Army is allowing two football players just drafted to use) in times of “war”. This year we have an election, the “war” declaration could easily change with either candidate and this restriction was put in place by the Sec. Navy who is a presidential appointee thus he will change too. I think the Cards are counting on the policy changing in the next couple of years.
BTW how often does a player make the Majors the year after he was drafted? Mortenson is very close to doing just that. I doubt they will start his clock that fast but man he has shot up the system.
What branch of service was that football player who recently got drafted? Didn’t something work out there?
You know, I’m almost a lttle leery of bringing this up for fear of opening the politcal door, but our owner just happens to be a pretty close ally and a personal friend of our current president. He’s hosted fundraisers and various things. Bush called DeWitt personally about an hour after the Cards won the Series to congratulate him. And not in a photo op sort of way; on DeWitt’s cell phone from what I understand.
If there’s any organisation that could manage to get the kid into pro ball, it’s probably the one in which the owner just happens to be a close, personal friend of the head of the military.
Just a thought.
Hill was with the army. They allowed him to hunt people down in parking lots and annoy people on the phones. They allowed him to be a recruiter for his term which is 2 years. I believe that to be fact. I could be a bit wrong but that is basically it.
The Navy seems to be a little hard nosed about it but it seems like Harris really wants to play and serve this country in another way or later in his life. It was pointed out that , and im gonna spell this wrong, Abamondi is a former navy guy. Served nine years if i remember right. It will be cool if he can help negotiate something with the Navy.
The abamondi link might be a little bit more helpful i think RB. But if Bush were to make a request i doubt anyone would go against him.
PCG-
Entirely possible. Either way, this org seems to be better positioned than most to pull whatever strings that may be pullable. Let’s hope so, anyway. The kid’s a real find.
I’m completely with Law here, at least as far as the first day’s picks went. I see 4 players that are very likely to contribute in some capacity at the big league level. That keeps the pipeline going.
The upside’s in the second day and just skimming, I see a lot more than he does and most of you seem to. Especially if we sign a lot of ‘em.
And as for the political connections… I’d imagine that Abbamondi is the most important one involved. He’s a war hero after all.
Thanks to Bill for the Fortunato link. Think he may have (understandably) misread the article, though.
So clumsily written that it’s hard to tell whether the comment at the end of the article is from Fortunato, Bowman, or Barham.
From the story, it sounds like he’d be wise to sign… And buddy up with another pitcher who’s got a solid pitching routine.
Did anyone else watch Gorgen pitch tonight? His changeup is absolutely filthy. I already forgot what team he was facing, but he made several hitters look ridiculous. I look forward to seeing him in the organization.
6th round money is pretty good for the pool boy…he better get in, while the getting is good.
Someone give him Kyle Russell’s # so they can talk about leverage!
Elite athletes are kind of a special case at the service academies; they get many privileges that others do not, special tutoring, less hazing, etc. As far as the draft goes, I’m not sure about the Navy, but I went to the Air Force Academy (bryce fisher was in my squadron my jr/sr year, what a slacker [j/k, maybe,
]) and the rule was that if you paid the government back for your education, they would let you out. I graduated in ‘98 and at the time it was approx $250k.
But that is only if you graduated; if you were drafted before you reported for your junior year, you didn’t owe anything. Once you started your junior year, you owed 2 years as an enlisted airman if you weren’t commissioned for any reason, unless you took a dishonorable or medical discharge. Unfortunately, Mitch will have graduated by now, but 250K isn’t that big of a deal to overcome (for an MLB team) and a lot of the time if you sign up for the reserves or national guard they will waive that. Right now the military is cutting down on officers, in some cases offering bonuses to get out of the military (google “force shaping”, ugh) so there is a very good chance so Mitch could get out.
One other thing to note- after he graduates, he will have 60 days of leave saved up. That will take him though the end of this minor league season, so if he wants to sign up immediately and use that leave to play for quad cities or whoever for the remainder of this season, there is no reason he can’t do it. It’ll just require a signature from either his USNA squadron commander or his gaining commander, generally an O-4 or O-5 type (mine was actually an O-3 due to pin on O-4 soon), saying it is OK to pursue alternate source of income in the interim.
This is one of those things that I have never heard of being turned down, so it should be trivial unless he has really really bad luck and gets assigned to a location with a jackass commander who wants to make a point (at the cost of unit morale).
John sickels drafted blake murphy in his shadow draft and had this to say
“Blake Murphy, C, Western Carolina University: 42nd round to the Cardinals in real life. Put up strong numbers in college, with power and speed, but scouts doubt he’ll hit with wood. Another guy to fill a roster.”
The standard commitment when graduating from one of the service academies is 5 years.
I can’t remember which branch this applies to, but when drafted by a sports team, one (or more) of the branches will allow the draftee to spend 2 years on active duty followed by some time (3 years? 5 years?) in the Reserves.
Here is a scouting report on Fornataro from PG Crosschecker. I didn’t see this posted anywhere, so here it is:
Fornataro barely registered among area scouts a year ago at Pensacola (Fla.) JC, where he went 1-2, 5.89 in just 18 innings of work. But he became one of the hottest junior college arms in the country this spring after his transfer to Miami-Dade. Though he suffered his team’s only loss as Miami-Dade raced out to a 25-1 record, Fornataro clearly was the pitcher scouts targeted on a deep and talented staff and he continued to move up draft boards through the spring. He was 7-2, 2.87 with 26 walks and 77 strikeouts in 78 innings as Miami-Dade, the second-ranked team in Florida, entered state tournament play. Fornataro has smooth mechanics with a clean arm action and throws everything with ease. His stuff includes a heavy fastball in the 90-93 mph range, touching 94, along with a solid changeup and a developing slider. He maintains his arm speed well and gets good deception on his changeup, which has late, tumbling action. Though he is around the plate with all his pitches, he lacks consistent command of his slider. He also has a tendency of pitching backwards, leading with his changeup in fastball counts.
hopefully he is the next mark diapoules.
YW, Liam, and no, I didn’t misread the article. The way he was hedging there sounded to me like he was probably going to go for the bucks. My understanding is that he has indeed signed.
The more I look at this draft, the better I like it. Great blend of low-risk guys and high-risk, very-high-upside guys. If even a small fraction of the latter work out, this could be a whomping good farm system for the next few years. Long live Luhzeliak!
i wish there was a video on fornataro
I sent him some questions for a little Q and A (Fornataro) so hopefully he gets them back to me soon
[...] find much out much about him through the usual googling at first, other than his numbers. Recently, one of you were able to find Fornataro’s scouting report at PGCrosschecker– Fornataro barely registered among area scouts a year ago at Pensacola (Fla.) JC, where he [...]
By the way, it is not Charlie Swauger it is Chris Swauger
Xavier Scruggs was my best friend in elementary school and middle school. We used to tear up the basketball rec leagues together (People used to call us Stockton and Malone
). He is an amazing guy who is really determined when it comes to everything. The guy is extremely humble and has his head in the right place. There is no doubt in my mind that Xavier will be successful in the bigs.