Just in the name of fun, I thought I’d give you my “pick odds” for what the chances are I think the Cardinals will take a certain player. Now this is only IF the player is available. If they are off the board, well, that would certainly change things.
Christian Friedrich- 2-1
Aaron Hicks- 4-1
Casey Kelly- 5-1
Ryan Perry- 10-1
Zach Collier- 12-1
Brett Wallace- 15-1
Note: If any “fantasy world” players come available, IE Aaron Crow, Kyle Skipworth, etc., I would have to think those would be no brainers.
And here is my realistic “big board” of targets, as I see it. There are those who fit in certain categories. Dream scenario of course would take a pretty miraculous event to happen, but it’s not totally impossible. The “More realistic” category is players in the 2nd tier, talent wise in the draft that could be there at 13. Some of them could be gone, but not all of them. Lawrie is my preference to go on record, but I’d be fine with either of those. (Yes, I have done a bit of a 180 on Hicks, but my money is on the A’s to pick him up). In the unlikely case the board completely blows up, you then have the next tier of talent. I sprinkled in some wild cards, which mostly consists of the wild situation where the Cardinals take a HS pitcher or a college 1B.
Dream scenario:
Gordon Beckham
Kyle Skipworth
Aaron Crow (Albeit worrisome mechanics/ signability concern) And yes, it could happen that Crow falls to 13.
More realistic scenario, some could be gone but not all:
Christian Friedrich
Brett Lawrie
Aaron Hicks
Casey Kelly
All hell breaks loose scenario:
Zach Collier
Ryan Perry
Shooter Hunt
Andrew Cashner
Jemile Weeks
Conor Gillaspie
Wild cards:
Brett Wallace
Yonder Alonso
Tim Melville
Jake Odorizzi
A hero ain’t nothin’ but a sandwich (pick), IE-possible targets for the supplemental round, maybe even 2nd round:
RHP Tyson Ross, Cal.
RHP Lance Lynn, Ole Miss
SS Tyler Ladensdorf, SS, Howard CC
LHP Wade Miley, SE Louisiana
OF Destin Hood, St. Paul’s Episcopal HS, Mobile, AL
RHP Brad Holt, UNC Wilmington
LHP Tim Murphy, UCLA
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
i am also starting to come around a little on hicks. this is mostly from the reports of how many teams really like him right in our range. i always thought he was being overrated b/c of his speed, but maybe he will be able to hit.
i would still like to see what he could do on the mound though. his curveball is big time, and his fastball has some pop.
I’m just not a big fan of raw HS players that don’t at least have an average aproach already at #13.
Daryl Jones a couple years ago in the 3rd=Hoooray!!
But Hicks gives me that Shaun Boyd feeling……..
Lassie, I’m with you on the Shaun Boyd reference. And when I hear about college relievers being considered, I flash back to 1996 and the Cards taking Looper with the #3 pick.
I’m much more comfortable with raw, toolsy high schoolers after the 2nd round, and with college closers in the supplemental round or beyond.
But for the middle of the first round, I want a guy who projects as an above-average major-league player, preferably at a premium position or in the middle of the rotation.
And if he can’t play a premium position, I want someone who projects as a 3, 4 or 5 hitter.
yeah, say no to josh fields. give me a bat or a high school arm before they go with a college closer. we have plenty of relief prospects already, we don’t need one with the 13th pick.
I agree with Erik, pretty much no matter who Luhnow picks I will temper my feelings because he has in a very short time turned the system around. I really don’t care if it’s absolutely someone I’ve never heard of I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
That being said, it’s always nice to be able to have a good feeling about the players your team drafts on draft day because that’s about all you got for a while until you find out if the picks were legit.
If they were to take Hicks…my prefererence would be for him to start as a position player and see if the bat develops (maybe take a bullpen a couple times a week to keep his offspeed stuff sharp)
If he can’t stick in the field (I’m confident he will), then in a couple of years you still have a 20-21 year old with a mid 90’s fastball with very low mileage on his arm. Win, win imo.
I’ve been an avid Hicks supporter for some time, but Lawrie is really starting to grab my attention.
This might sound silly but I love that Hicks is a switch hitter. If Hicks turned out to be the toolsy outfielder that a lot of scouts think he could be he would be a great pick, no doubt.
i would not be happy with lance lynn in the supp or secind, i was nothing but disapointed in what i saw, a solid 91 mph fastball and some bad breaking balls
I wouldn’t be outraged in Lynn at 39. I think he has the stuff to be a back end of the rotation guy and when you have even an average pitcher in your rotation making the league minimum it makes for fantastic payroll flexibility.
Hicks a “great” pick? I don’t think a “great” pick is available in this draft. Consensus seems to be that there are a lot of useful guys, but nobody that’s got a Pujolsian future — not that that is realistic to expect of anyone, just saying that the future superstars aren’t there. Under those circumstances it is most important, IMO, to draft relatively conservatively and make sure we get someone who will at least be useful, because that’s all we can really ask for. Don’t screw up and things will turn out OK.
Pujols didn’t have a Pujolsian future either.
I think picking conservately, and trying to safely get a guy that can be “useful” when you are picking higher than you have in years is a disastrous strategy.
I agree with backwater-bob. I’d like to see a “high upside” pick at 13 and then go a little conservative at 39 as a hedge against the risk of the pick at 13. I’d really like the first round pick to be someone I can get excited about - guys that don’t get me excited: Weeks, Friedrich, Hunt, any relief pitcher.
a guy over at cards talk is saying the cardinals pretty much have a deal worked out with zach putnam to make him the 39th pick.
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