These are some of the first I’ve seen today, but I’m certain they won’t be the last.
Kevin Goldstein and both Kiley and Frankie of Saber Scouting have the Cardinals down for LHP Christian Friedrich, which comes as no big surprise. Much to my chagrin, helium kid Brett Lawrie is starting to figure to be gone by the time 13 rolls around.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo keeps driving me up the wall with his Ryan Perry prediction, which apparently has some real legs. I thought Mayo could just be speculating, but according to Goldstein:
There is a rumor beginning to circulate that University of Arizona reliever Ryan Perry, who touched 100 mph on multiple occasions during last week’s regional play, has entered the picture and has a sizable group of supporters inside the organization.
I’d rather them just hope he falls to them in the sandwich round. I just don’t see how a college middle reliever is supposed to be more than a pro middle reliever, and we already have a truckload of relievers in the system. But there are some who are convinced he can start, here’s his video on YouTube, you can decide for yourself.
We’ll have updates here periodically through out the day, check back.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
That’s definitely tall-and-fall … jeebus. But still, to get 96 mph with what looks to be little use of his lower body means one hell of a quick arm. Don’t know what to make of that.
Digging the glasses…dig them a lot more in the sandwich round though…
I’ll puke tomorrow if this Perry kid is drafted #13 overall. The way things are shaping up, there promises to be a very good player available when the Cards make their first round selection. I find it hard to believe they’ll do something stupid.
Perry does not have an overly violent delivery so maybe he could transition to starting. If he could start his stuff would certainly be above average.
That being said, it sure seems like too much of a reach and projection for the 13th pick. I still think Friedrich will be the pick if he is available…but I don’t like it. Too limited in upside for that pick. The Cards have really developed some pitching depth in the minors and I think they should take someone with more upside like Melville, Odirizzi, Hicks, Lawrie, etc.
Here’s the link to my updated mock draft:
http://tailgatecrashers.insidepulse.com/2008/06/03/mlb-mock-draft-update/
I picked Friedrich for the Cardinals.
Ryan Perry is Kyle Farnsworth.
I will start following the World Series of Scrabble instead of the draft if the Cards pluck Perry in the 1st.
There are more important things then how hard you throw.
David Aardsma part 2.
I like his delivery. It is very simple and seems to be easy to repeat. If he has good velocity then maybe he is a sleeper.
Where was Pujols selected in the draft?
Plus as a reliever he most likely has low mileage on his arm.
I can dig it. The glasses are pretty neat as well.
I hate watching his lower body on this video–icky.
So here is a tounge-in-cheek question:
Does the site prefer a college reliver that may start–Ryan Perry or do you prefer a college starter that probably make it to the bigs as a reliever–lets say Shooter Hunt?
I agree with Nick. The Cards have developed some minor league depth, lets shoot for the moon on this one and go with the highest upside pick we can find. Odorizzi anyone?
If it’s upside they want, then either Casey Kelly or Aaron Hicks.
If the Cards pick doesnt come from this list..I will be shocked and likely very dissapointed
1. Brett Lawrie
2. Christian Friedrich
3. Brett Wallace
4. Tim Melville
5. Aaron Hicks
Now if by some miracle a guy like Crow or G.Beckham falls..then ya no brainer.
But those are 5 very good players..at least 1, probably 2 of them will be around when the Cards pick.
Luhnow personally went and saw Melville in his last start of the year….I dont think you send your #1 draft guy if he isnt in serious contention at #13.
But Friedrich likely makes the most sense in terms of value, need and ability to move quickly.
yeah, if you are looking for upside you go with hicks or zach collier. you don’t get much higher upside than those two.
i don’t have as much problem with perry as erik and pickle, but i do believe there will be better players on the board. if we were picking in the 20-30 range i would have no problem going with perry, but if they pass over guys like friedrich, wallace, hicks, and melville for him i won’t be too happy.
IF, big IF Perry is the pick, I will hold back the vomit and give Luhnow the benefit of the doubt. He deserves it by now. I still think there is no way they can pass on either Hicks, Kelly or Friedrich and take Perry. All of them would have to be off the board first.
Quick draft question…
What time does it start tomorrow?
1 CST
intertesting tidbit, the Cincy Enquirer states the Reds board is
1. Posey
2. Matusz
3. G Beck
4. Alonso.
I think it’s safe to say they could get at least 1 of their bottom two, so maybe Lawrie will be available, afterall.
Erik did you get a chance to hear the Jeff Luhnow interview from yesterday?
No, but do tell!
I will pass along the audio link.
Bernie was nice enough to ask him 3 of my questions and even know Luhnow was a bit vague with his answers..you can tell what his thought process is.
http://stlsportsinsider.com/cardinals/index.html
A recap and the actual audio
Thanks erik.
Also, i’d like to thank everyone for all the useful information regarding the draft and the minor league system as a whole.
I just started following this stuff recently and have found this site to be an invaluable source of info.
Great work guys.
Noone will ever make me understand why we would pick based on need and ability to move quickly. It’s lunacy.
1. We pick 13, that is the highest we have picked in 8 years.
2. The upper levels of our system finally have enough talent in them to supplement the big club.
3. Picking for need when most guys take 3-4 years to develop should speak for itself.
With all of those factors, why this team wouldn’t go with a high upside player, like Hicks of Lawrie is completely beyond me.
I hope that yonder alonso is available at 13. I doubt he will fall that far down, but there is always hope. I think he is going to be a very special player and would love to see him in a cardinals uniform.
bob, i guess you are talking about friedrich. i still don’t understand why he doesn’t have upside, but if you take a look at nearly everyone’s rankings he is rated ahead of both hicks and lawrie. that would mean he is most likely the best player on the board if we take him at 13, and that would mean they aren’t drafting for need.
The misinformation on Friedrich is just quite sad.
When did a 20 yr old LHP with a low 90’s fastball and what most consider the best curve in the draft…become low upside?
Need is never in play when you pick in the 1st round..but system depth and strength are.
This system is sorely lacking in LHP..if you have 2 or 3 players ranked the same…..you cant tell me that doesnt play into it.
My question is… what kind of money is it going to take to sign our first pick and is front office going to buck up this year for the right pick…
gobirds, slot is roughly $1.7 million for the 13th pick. as for your second question, who knows.
I’ve stated it multiple times, but I guess I’ll do it again. The reason Friedrich is rated higher than the players you mention is he is considered by many to be a “safe bet” to reach the major leagues. I don’t think you’ll find anyone that argues he has a higher upside than Hicks or Lawrie.
I’ve seen Friedrich pitch a couple of times and the velocity on his fastball is exgerrated. He didn’t touch 90 in either start. He couldn’t find the strike zone with his curveball, although it did have great movement. Also, I don’t think he fooled a right handed batter in either start. Now maybe I just caught him on some bad outings, and that is possible.
I just can’t justify picking a guy who profiles as a middle of the rotation starter with the 13th pick. It doesn’t add up. When you have depth at the upper levels of your system, you don’t need a fast riser. I’d be ok with Friedrich, if we weren’t passing up guys with “all-star” upside to pick him.
Also, one more thing will have to be explained to me. Why is there such an affinity for LHP. I know it exists throughout the baseball world, but I’ve yet to see examples of how being left handed makes your more apt to get hitters out.
If Friedrich was a righthander would we even be talking about him?
I have confidence in Lunhow, and if Friedrich is the pick then I will trust that they see him as more than I do. If they are picking him just because he should move quickly, and is a safe bet to be a decent starter then those are the wrong reasons imo.
I’d rather them swing and miss, then lay down a sac bunt. I just don’t think the words “safe” should accompany the 13th pick in the draft.
I’ll keep my opinion and defer to you guys though, you know more than I do.
You guys do a great job with all of the draft coverage. Kudos.
Oh and btw. ESPN’s new mock has us taking Shooter Hunt (with Friedrich off the board) for what it’s worth.
Hicks goes with the next pick, and Lawrie goes 22(doubt that)
I agree almost spot on with backwater-bob here. Friedrich is a nice pitcher but high-80s stuff and a curve are not that great in my eyes. LH pitchers do have an advantage in that their pitches move differently than RH pitchers but it’s not enough to put Friedrich over the top IMHO. With the depth the Cards have developed I would rather see them take someone with higher upside. I like Odirizzi, Melville, Hicks, and Lawrie.
if you check out his draft video he was sitting 91-92 and that was at the end of the summer and nearly 150 innings. if he is throwing that hard then, i think he can throw that hard in pro ball.
I guess the scouting video and all the scouting reports on Friedrich are wrong then.
B/c every report I have seen says he sits 88 to 92 and when did adding velocity and upside top for 20 year olds?
When did 88 to 92mph for a LH become a bad thing. Jeff Francis is lucky to touch 88mph, Barry Zito won 15 to 20 games a year never hitting 90mph.
A 90mph fastball from a LH starter is a plus pitch, especially when you have a plus curve and 2 other decent offerings.
When did drafting a guy who you expect to be a MLB pitcher become bad? When did thinking a guy can move quickly and be a solid MLB starting pitcher, become bad?
Aaron Hicks has 5 tools..but the last tool is the bat and all you have to do is listen to Callis and Manuel and they will tell you those guys RARELY ever hit.
So what good is upside when the odds on it are happening are real low?
Friedrich must have all these experts fooled, b/c there is a very, very good chance he isnt even available at #13.
I will not be unhappy if the Cards take Friedrich…but I won’t be super excited either. I think they will take him if he is available. He fits an organizational need and fits the profile of previously drafted players. Pitchers are notoriously difficult to evaluate so any pitcher picked in this spot is no more than a crapshoot to even make the majors.
Pickle, don’t get so bent out of shape buddy. I said I would defer. You know more about these guys than I do. Happy?
I mean do you think I’m lying. I’ve seen him twice in person and the velocity was not there. I won’t say it again, and quite frankly, I’m tired of defending myself. Do you need me to tell you that every scouting report has exagerrated velocity attached to them? Have you seen him pitch in person? I have. Did you sit behind multiple scouts on both occasions? I did.
I’m getting sick of defending, what in all honesty is just an opinion of one man. You think he’d be a good pick, I don’t. I’m not sure what the problem is in just leaving it at that.
Picking a guy who you expect to be a MLB pitcher isn’t bad, nor is picking a guy you think can move quickly. What is bad is passing on a guy with a high celing in favor of a guy with a high floor. Like I said, when you pick 13 (the highest you have in years) you go for the homerun. You don’t go with a “safe” pick.
What good is the safe bet, when the top of his projection is average or so?
As for not being available at 13, let’s hope you are right.
Lastly, still waiting on someone to show me some proof that shows being lefthanded makes you more apt to retire hitters. If you can’t show that, then are we even talking about Friedrich if he were righthanded.
I would be talking about any college pitcher who was 20 years old that had
12.5 K per 9 and a 4.5 H per 9
Any college pitcher that posted 52K’s in 37IP at the Cape.
But can anyone honestly say that being LH doesnt help?
Are we actually to belive that being LH doesnt help? Are all those splits of people who cant hit LHP all just a big mirage?
The fact the Cards struggle year in and year out vs LHP is just a conicidence?
Sorry Bob, but I have read so many reports that my head is going to explode and I have yet to hear any from an expert or scout that resembles what your saying.
Sorry…but I gotta go with the pro’s on this one.
Oh…and when did velocity become so important?
One last tidbit…last time the Cards picked 13th..they passed on the safer college pick and took the high upside HS guy.
That was Chase Utley and we got Shaun Boyd.
I am an upside guy, everyone knows that….so why do you think I want Friedrich?
B/c he has upside..upside he can attain….I dont think Hicks will ever hit enough to warrant his selection.
If his bat is a question vs HS players…its a question as pro.
Baseball America
solid-average 89-91 mph velocity throughout a game and can touch 94
MLB.com
velocity that ranges anywhere from 88 to 93 mph
Saber Scouting
fastball that hovers around 90
Brewerfan.net
his 88-92 fastball that has touched 94 in the past
PGcrosschecker
dominates with an 88 to 92mph fastball
All pretty consistent to me.
If his bat is a question then he can just use that plus plus hammer curve he has to go along with a fastball that can touch the mid 90’s.
The 12.5 K/9 and 4.5H per 9 is coming against some pretty weak competition. Now the Cape numbers are a different story to be sure, and he pitched very well there. No doubt.
Again, you’ve read the reports. I’ve seen him pitch in person, twice. Came away underwhelmed both times. Also, I’m not asking you to agree. Never did. I’m perfectly content with disagreeing. That’s what this is all about. If the players had a consensus rating, there would be no need to even hold a draft. The players could just be assigned.
Also, looking at draft history. The last two times they went college pitcher in the first round they ended up with Lambert and Ottavino. So that works both ways.
When it comes to upside. It’s just no contest, even if Hicks doesn’t hit ( lot of teams think he will obviously), put him on the mound and he has more potential than Friedrich. I haven’t seen one report that refers to him as a potential number 1, I have for Hicks.
And yes, I’ll believe that being left handed doesn’t give you an advantage until someone shows me it does.
Part of your rationale im picking Friedrich comes from the fact that he is safe, and he should move quickly. Neither of which should come into play imo.
Excellent point. Alright. You’ve done it. You’ve finally sold me. And, after seeing what he can do on the mound on a video, and see him swing the bat, I’m thoroughly sold. Hicks/Lawrie or bust.
If I am investing nearly 2M in a player…i would like to think he is going to be a MLB’er. So yes, safe does come into factor, if we were drafting based totally on skills and upside then we would be talking about Hewitt at #13.
Why arent we…b/c the closer you get to the top of the draft the more you look for sure fire MLB’ers and most consider Friedrich to be a MLB pitcher in short time.
To me its pretty simple…people keep calling Jaime Garcia a middle of the rotation #3 starter.
How many here would pass up on Jaime Garcia at #13 if he was on the board?
Get caught up on wanting players to be HOF’ers or All-Stars….there is nothing wrong with a #3 LH starter…what is the difference betwen a #3 and a #2?
0.50 ERA?
Again, do you need me to tell you that scouting reports ALWAYS exagerrate velocity.
Take the couple mph off of all of those reports, and what do you have?
Multiple scouting reports of Wainwright sitting at 92-93 and touching 95. According to pitch f/x he is averaging just over 90.
You’ve read the reports, I’ve seen him pitch.
Anyway, I’m done. You just want to argue, and I don’t have time for that.
We’ll find out tomorrow.
I would take Hicks at #13 as a pitcher….but he doesnt want to be a pitcher.
Now if he said yes to being a pitcher I take him….but that doesnt seem likely.
I just dont get why people are so much more excited about the what if, then the probably so.
Hicks might be great, he might also never make it out of AA.
I guess the scouting video of him throwing in the low 90’s is part of the exaggeration conspiracy too?
I guess all the scouts and 3rd party draft pubs that have him ranked in the top 15 overall players in the entire draft are also influenced by the exaggeration conspiracy.
Oh well…I can understand making your point for a guy…but when everything you says flys right in the face or legit reports…I gotta wonder if you know what your talking about to begin with or if its just some displaced anger or something that I dont understand.
i agree with pickle. if i am drafting hicks at 13 it is as a pitcher. there are just too many questions about his bats to take him that early as a position player. kevin goldstein said today that if hicks didn’t pitch he would be nothing more than a back of the first round pick, and i think that is true.
“I would take Hicks at #13 as a pitcher….but he doesnt want to be a pitcher.”
Where did you see this? I’m pretty sure he’ll do whatever that will make him successful. He does it in HS for free, and he won’t do it if someone paid him millions of dollars. Just doesn’t seem right. Although I’ve heard others say they won’t sign for that same reason, really it’s just stupid on the players part.
I have seen that everywhere actually.
I have yet to find anywhere that says Hicks will sign if drafted as a pitcher.
If that was known..then ya I would welcome his selection at #13…in fact if you look at his scouting video he is w/o a doubt one of the best, if not best, HS arms in this draft.
When local scouts give you a Doc Gooden comp…your doing something.
Any chance you have a link so I don’t have to take the time to look.
Hicks said this
“I’m pitching for my team, but I feel my future is as an outfielder because I have tools others don’t have,” he said”
This was said today.
“Aaron Hicks, who has first-round talent as both a center fielder and as a pitcher. Teams prefer him on the mound, and of late he’s seemingly softened on his stance that he’d like to begin his career as an everyday player”
What is known for sure he is prefers to be an OF’er…now will he hold out for more and end up going to USC if someone wants him as a pitcher only?
Here’s a question. Let’s say the Cards gamble on Hicks (just an example) as a pitcher. He stone walls them and basically refuses to sign. Given that this is a somewhat weak draft, that would leave us with at least 2 first round picks in 2009.
I have no idea what the 2009 draft looks like but if the Cardinals gambled in a situation like that and lost, I think there’s a defensible argument that they could come out ahead in that scenario.
So he prefers to play CF, but is very open to pitching. Doesn’t seem that hard to convince him his future would be best on the mound.
AZ, only problem there is a lot of people don’t have the patience for that. I personally don’t mind it, but people want a player now.
“but is very open to pitching”
I have never read that or heard that implied…..I am about drafted’d out and have read so many articles that I might go blind soon.
But I have gathered from all the reports that he is holding pretty strong that he wants to be an OF’er and has softened his stance a bit.
What does that mean? Does it now mean he has to be bought out of college now?
I dont know…but its a quite a leap to suggest he is open to pitching.
I implied that from the quote you provided that said, “and of late he’s seemingly softened on his stance that he’d like to begin his career as an everyday player.” Seems he’s open to the idea of it. If someone puts almost 2M in front of your face it’s also very hard to say no, I’ll see where my life takes me in 3 years.
This is all assuming the Cardinal scouts don’t think he can hit, and he very well could, who knows.
Here you go Pickle
“As Frankie says, Minnesota leans to the high school/tools end of the spectrum, frequently goes off-the-board, and usually does well in the draft. Brett Lawrie is definitely in play here, and I would think is the pick if he’s available. In my scenario he isn’t, and Collier is a distinct possibility, but may be too raw at the plate for Minnesota’s liking. Casey Kelly fits great here if the Twins would go over slot, but that’s unlikely. I wouldn’t be suprised if Brett Wallace, Tim Melville, Aaron Hicks, or Ethan Martin were the pick, either. I’ll go with Aaron Hicks here, and say the Twins chase the upside, and believe they’ve got a faster version of Torii Hunter with an 80 arm that could play on the mound. They may even draft him as a pitcher rather than a center fielder, as Hicks reportedly is more open to signing as a pitcher”
That’s from sabr scouting. I haven’t read many concerns about Hicks not signing.
He’s got better upside as a hitter (obviously), and a pitcher. I’d draft him as a hitter, but even if they don’t think he can hit he is STILL the better pick.