Comments on: Scouting the Memphis Redbirds 5/4 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:20:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: Observations from Des Moines - 5/30/08 « Future Redbirds http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-18524 Observations from Des Moines - 5/30/08 « Future Redbirds Mon, 09 Jun 2008 17:30:51 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-18524 [...] on May 30th in Des Moines. I have not gone through and applied scounting grades like Az did for the 5/4/08 game, but I was able to make some useful observations. I also took a lot of pictures (I was a guest at [...] [...] on May 30th in Des Moines. I have not gone through and applied scounting grades like Az did for the 5/4/08 game, but I was able to make some useful observations. I also took a lot of pictures (I was a guest at [...]

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By: Beau http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17494 Beau Fri, 30 May 2008 22:16:09 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17494 PJ threw about 150 innings each season during 3 at S. Alabama U. His durability should be good. The mainstay of the Cardinals rotation about 1990-93 was Tewksbury. He was a 6'4" RHP who relied on movement and changing speeds. Tewksbury was quite successful in the majors. PJ threw about 150 innings each season during 3 at S. Alabama U. His durability should be good.

The mainstay of the Cardinals rotation about 1990-93 was Tewksbury. He was a 6′4″ RHP who relied on movement and changing speeds. Tewksbury was quite successful in the majors.

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By: 3up3down25 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17491 3up3down25 Fri, 30 May 2008 21:43:56 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17491 ok, my bad , i wouldnt know.. ok, my bad , i wouldnt know..

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By: nomar34 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17469 nomar34 Fri, 30 May 2008 14:35:46 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17469 3up, Walters threw his slider twice to Nix to lead off the game but didnt throw it again until the 3rd. Some more 80's: Aaron Miles' grit David Eckstein's scrappyness Derek Jeter's captain-ing Ryan Theriot's gamer-ness 3up, Walters threw his slider twice to Nix to lead off the game but didnt throw it again until the 3rd.

Some more 80’s:

Aaron Miles’ grit
David Eckstein’s scrappyness
Derek Jeter’s captain-ing
Ryan Theriot’s gamer-ness

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By: Swirls_AEPi http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17466 Swirls_AEPi Fri, 30 May 2008 13:35:48 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17466 Some examples of 80's... Johan Santana's changeup Joel Zumaya's fastball Mariano Rivera's cutter Rick Ankiel's curveball? Ryan Howard's power Michael Bourn's speed Rick Ankiel's throwing arm Some examples of 80’s…

Johan Santana’s changeup
Joel Zumaya’s fastball
Mariano Rivera’s cutter
Rick Ankiel’s curveball?
Ryan Howard’s power
Michael Bourn’s speed
Rick Ankiel’s throwing arm

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By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17456 azruavatar Fri, 30 May 2008 03:21:50 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17456 cdb -- I'm guessing here but Zumaya's fastball, Carlos Gomez's speed and Ichiro's hitting for average could all be 80s on the scouting scale. That would be a great question for the guys at saberscouting though seeing as how they're actual scouts and all. :o) I'd label Wainwright's curve a 60-65 although I'm not sure what it would take to get an 80 for a curveball. cdb — I’m guessing here but Zumaya’s fastball, Carlos Gomez’s speed and Ichiro’s hitting for average could all be 80s on the scouting scale. That would be a great question for the guys at saberscouting though seeing as how they’re actual scouts and all. :o )

I’d label Wainwright’s curve a 60-65 although I’m not sure what it would take to get an 80 for a curveball.

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By: Merry Crasmus http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17454 Merry Crasmus Thu, 29 May 2008 23:01:12 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17454 Walters is one guy I've somehow adopted a greater than normal interest in. I would say his early returns in Memphis are somewhat mixed. I hope he has a strong finish because he's the profile that will get held back as soon as there is a reason to. The question will always be whether his stuff will play as he moves up. I kinda think it will hold up fine, if he can locate. If he does make it, I think he'd be a great fit in a rotation. I have a pet theory (with nothing quantifiable to support it) that you gain a slight edge by bringing different looks in the rotation one day to the next. One thing PJ would be is unique. Batters won't have a lot of comps as far as starters working with the same velocities. And I'm not sure there are many comps for the changeup either. I think throwing someone like Garcia, following him up with Walters, and then following him up with Wainwright could have a type of symbiotic effect. Again, just my intuitive beliefs...nothing of substance to support it. On a side note, I suspect a stronger correlation in the bullpen. Another benefit to be gained by throwing different looks at hitters from the pen. For this reason, among others, I am pretty cheesed off that Worrell didn't get the call. Walters is one guy I’ve somehow adopted a greater than normal interest in.

I would say his early returns in Memphis are somewhat mixed. I hope he has a strong finish because he’s the profile that will get held back as soon as there is a reason to. The question will always be whether his stuff will play as he moves up.

I kinda think it will hold up fine, if he can locate. If he does make it, I think he’d be a great fit in a rotation. I have a pet theory (with nothing quantifiable to support it) that you gain a slight edge by bringing different looks in the rotation one day to the next. One thing PJ would be is unique. Batters won’t have a lot of comps as far as starters working with the same velocities. And I’m not sure there are many comps for the changeup either. I think throwing someone like Garcia, following him up with Walters, and then following him up with Wainwright could have a type of symbiotic effect. Again, just my intuitive beliefs…nothing of substance to support it.

On a side note, I suspect a stronger correlation in the bullpen. Another benefit to be gained by throwing different looks at hitters from the pen. For this reason, among others, I am pretty cheesed off that Worrell didn’t get the call.

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By: cdb http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17453 cdb Thu, 29 May 2008 22:47:47 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17453 thanks for the explanation. I think what confused me was that I was assuming league average meant league average for starters - when in fact it means league average for all pitchcers - including the mop-up guys sitting in the bullpen waiting for the next 8 run lead or deficit. So a league averaeg pitcher can sit at the end of the rotation. Comprendo... Azru, that SaberScouting site you link to says that very few tools are ever graded at an 80. Are you (or any other readers) aware of anyone currently playing that is graded at an 80 for any particular tool? Just curious as to how dominant that would be. Also, for reference, what would Wainwright's curve be graded at? thanks for the explanation. I think what confused me was that I was assuming league average meant league average for starters - when in fact it means league average for all pitchcers - including the mop-up guys sitting in the bullpen waiting for the next 8 run lead or deficit. So a league averaeg pitcher can sit at the end of the rotation. Comprendo…

Azru, that SaberScouting site you link to says that very few tools are ever graded at an 80. Are you (or any other readers) aware of anyone currently playing that is graded at an 80 for any particular tool? Just curious as to how dominant that would be. Also, for reference, what would Wainwright’s curve be graded at?

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By: 3up3down25 http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17451 3up3down25 Thu, 29 May 2008 22:01:13 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17451 very nice report, on the pitches. pj never threw his slider until the 3rd pitch to nix in the 3rd inning. his command is kinda hard to judge because he will have games where he will walk more because he will never give in to a hitter, he would walk a run in before he gives in. for instance against nashville a week ago he never threw a slider , had only 2 ks but a week later against the same team,he used his slider all day for 9ks.the thing he told me the other day was he is making a couple of mistakes every game & they arent really squaring them up but getting just enough to hit it out of the yard. while i do agree he is pretty much a finished product he is still making adjustments & trying all kinds of things in his bullpens , dont be surprised to see him come up with a new pitch , he is always trying different stuff. but i strongly disagree about him holding up 180-200 innings. he would just be getting going . thanks for the coverage of all the minors , you guys do a great job.. very nice report, on the pitches. pj never threw his slider until the 3rd pitch to nix in the 3rd inning. his command is kinda hard to judge because he will have games where he will walk more because he will never give in to a hitter, he would walk a run in before he gives in. for instance against nashville a week ago he never threw a slider , had only 2 ks but a week later against the same team,he used his slider all day for 9ks.the thing he told me the other day was he is making a couple of mistakes every game & they arent really squaring them up but getting just enough to hit it out of the yard. while i do agree he is pretty much a finished product he is still making adjustments & trying all kinds of things in his bullpens , dont be surprised to see him come up with a new pitch , he is always trying different stuff. but i strongly disagree about him holding up 180-200 innings. he would just be getting going . thanks for the coverage of all the minors , you guys do a great job..

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By: azruavatar http://futureredbirds.com/2008/05/29/scouting-the-memphis-redbirds-54/#comment-17449 azruavatar Thu, 29 May 2008 21:43:59 +0000 http://futureredbirds.wordpress.com/?p=1223#comment-17449 cdb -- that's a good question. The short answer is that I'm borrowing SaberScouting's adjusted overall future potential (AOFP) which is what the acronym is linked to in the post. The longer version is this: The grades for each individual pitch (and command) are based on the non-linear 20-80 scale described in the Prospect Primer. I say non linear because an 80 isn't twice as good as a 40 -- it's significantly better in a fashion that isn't represented strictly by the arbitrary number assigned to it. When you are looking at a single pitch -- say the fastball -- there are a lot of pitchers with a 55 fastball. There's a lot of pitchers with a 55 slider. There's a lot of pitchers with 55 command. There <b>are not</b> a lot of pitchers that combine all three. We know that pitchers need a certain repertoire to succeed as a major league starter. Evaluating each pitch in isolation is important but then evaluating the combined result of each individual part of the skill set and judging the effectiveness of that combined skillset is just as critical. A pitcher with a 50 fastball may only rate a 45 in their AOFP because they have no breaking pitch or offspeed pitch. Thus a score of 50 in AOFP is harder to acheive than in any single area. The scale shifts a bit, if you will, making a slightly different spread for AOFP than for any individual skillset. I hope that clears things up -- I'd suggest checking out <a href="http://www.saberscouting.com/scoutingtutorial/" rel="nofollow">SaberScouting's Scouting Tutorial</a> since that may make more sense than my own explanation. Hope that helps -- and if you have any other questions about the eval, don't feel bad about asking them. The info's only useful if our readers understand it. cdb — that’s a good question. The short answer is that I’m borrowing SaberScouting’s adjusted overall future potential (AOFP) which is what the acronym is linked to in the post.

The longer version is this: The grades for each individual pitch (and command) are based on the non-linear 20-80 scale described in the Prospect Primer. I say non linear because an 80 isn’t twice as good as a 40 — it’s significantly better in a fashion that isn’t represented strictly by the arbitrary number assigned to it. When you are looking at a single pitch — say the fastball — there are a lot of pitchers with a 55 fastball. There’s a lot of pitchers with a 55 slider. There’s a lot of pitchers with 55 command. There are not a lot of pitchers that combine all three.

We know that pitchers need a certain repertoire to succeed as a major league starter. Evaluating each pitch in isolation is important but then evaluating the combined result of each individual part of the skill set and judging the effectiveness of that combined skillset is just as critical. A pitcher with a 50 fastball may only rate a 45 in their AOFP because they have no breaking pitch or offspeed pitch. Thus a score of 50 in AOFP is harder to acheive than in any single area. The scale shifts a bit, if you will, making a slightly different spread for AOFP than for any individual skillset.

I hope that clears things up — I’d suggest checking out SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial since that may make more sense than my own explanation. Hope that helps — and if you have any other questions about the eval, don’t feel bad about asking them. The info’s only useful if our readers understand it.

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