Taking a look at PJ Walters first start at AAA. Also some notes on Motte, Mather and Anderson.
Random Notes:
- Bryan Anderson has great lateral movement behind the plate. I’m not really sure how he allows as many passed balls as he does because he’ll block some crazy pitches and then let a relatively mundane pitch go by. There’s no reason he can’t become an average defender behind the plate though.
- I think the Memphis announcers have a script for Jason Motte. When I was watching the 5/18 game, they talked about how he occasionally mixes in a slider. In the 5/4 game, they same the exact same thing almost verbatim and then Motte proceeds to throw 16 fastballs. The more I see Motte, the more I think he really needs to develop some kind of secondary pitch. His fastball doesn’t feature a lot of movement although he can locate it relatively well. He’s a one trick pony right now and I’m not sure that trick is going to keep him around as more than just a middle reliever. I could easily see him becoming the next Kyle Farnsworth.
- Joe Mather’s triple in the first was literally 2 feet short of being a HR. It bounced off of the top of the wall in left center.
PJ Walters
Notation: FB-fastball, SL-slider, CH-changeup, CB-curveball, CS-called strike, SS-swinging strike, B-ball, F-foulball
1st Inning:
- Nix: 1-FB(CS) 2-SL(B) 3-SL(groundout)
- Sullivan: 1-CH(B) 2-FB(CS) 3-FB(reaches on fielding error)
- Smith: 1-FB(groundout)
- Notes: the error that Sullivan reached on was an easy play that D’Angelo Jimenez botched.
2nd inning:
- Koshansky: 1-FB(B) 2-CH(SS) 3-FB(F) 4-CH(B) 5-CH(B) 6-FB(line out)
- Bellorin: 1-FB(CS) 2-FB(single)
- Stewart: 1-CH(CS) 2-FB(F) 3-CH(F) 4-CH(F) 5-FB(F) 6-CH(F) 7-FB(B) 8-FB(flyout)
- Frey: 1-FB(single)
- Bernier: 1-FB(groundout)
- Notes: the Stewart at bat was impressive but Walters kept throwing stuff around the strikezone until he got him to hit a lazy flyball.
3rd Inning:
- De Los Santos: 1-CH(CS) 2-CH(CS) 3-FB(B) 4-FB(B) 5-CH(CS) strikeout
- Nix: 1-FB(F) 2-FB(F) 3-FB(SS) strikeout
- Sullivan: 1-FB(single)
- Smith: 1-CH(B) 2-FB(CS) 3-FB(pop-up)
4th Inning:
- Koshansky: 1-FB(B) 2-FB(double)
- Bellorin: 1-SL(B) 2-FB(pop-up)
- Stewart: 1-FB(groundout)
- Frey: 1-CH(B) 2-CH(B) 3-FB(B) 4-FB(fly out)
5th inning:
- Bernier: 1-FB(home run)
- Nazario: 1-FB(CS) 2-SL(B) 3-CB(SS) 4-CB(SS) strikeout
- Nix: 1-SL(home run)
- Sullivan: 1-CH(B) 2-FB(single)
- Smith: 1-CH(B) 2-CH(B) 3-CH(B) 4-CH(B)
- Koshansky: 1-FB(B) 2-CH(fly out)
- Bellorin: 1-FB(B) 2-SL(SS) 3-SL(SS) 4-SL(SS) strikeout
- Notes: the Bernier home run just eeked over the right field wall. pitching coach Blake Ilsley comes out after the Sullivan at bat to calm down an anxious Walters. it was walters first AAA start so that’s to be expected. he had a composed demeanor on the mound for the most part.
Scouting Report
Fastball: 48/48
Slider: 50/50
Changeup: 55/55
Curveball: 45/45
Command: 50/53
AOFP: 52, Group C– 5th starter type, doesn’t fit typical bullpen model
ETA: 2009
PJ Walters is, for all intensive purposes, a finished product. He mixes his pitches well. He has an advanced offspeed pitch and good-not-great breaking stuff. He has a little bit of deception in his delivery hiding the ball before coming in with a somewhat odd arm angle. He’s rather lanky in appearance (think Wainwright but shorter) making me wonder how he’d hold up under 180-200 innings.
The reports on Walters, up to now, were always that he had a good array of pitches with good command. That’s wasn’t an accurate summary of what he was throwing on May 4th. His command was average but not good as he struggled to get his changeup over the plate and his fastball was left up on occasion. Walters main asset is that every pitch he throws moves. His pitches moved so much that I was often watching them 3-4 times trying to figure out if it was a slider or a fastball. A curveball or a changeup. He didn’t throw a single pitch that was straight. It would have been considerably easier if they posted velocity readings on the braodcast but they don’t. There were few times when the announcers would call a pitch his offspeed pitch when I was sure it was a fastball or a fastball I was sure was a slider. So there’s a grain of salt to be taken with the pitch-by-pitch above.
I watched the video and charted all the pitches before taking a few days to consider what I’d seen. This wasn’t as clear cut in grading as it was for Boggs. There are certainly pitchers that survive on movement with less than stellar velocity (Mark Buerhle comes to mind immediately). That said, I still have concerns about Walters’ fastball. When it was up in the zone, hitters seemed to square up on it pretty easily. The changeup was a pretty wicked pitch with late break away from left-handers. The slider was deceptive in that it looked like the fastball (the slider was coming in around 80mph — there’s a radar gun on the outfield wall that you see when Jayson Nix homers). The curveball was a decent pitch but didn’t have tremendous break.
I’m still left with the feeling that Walters upside is a #5 starter in the back of a rotation. I’m perhaps a little more confident saying that he has the stuff to reach that in the majors and have a successful career doing so but I just don’t see a lot of upside.
Filed under: P.J. Walters, Scouting Reports
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
simple question - the prospect primer says that a 50 is considered league average. You scored Walters with an AOFP score of 52. That would suggest a league average-ish pitcher. You then say that he projects to be a number 5 starter? Shouldn’t a league average pitcher be a middle of the rotation guy??? Particularly since he is league average with 4 pitches? Not arguing the results or conclusions, just trying to understand the logic….
I think you should maintain the “watch” in good times and bad. I mean, if our Number 1 fails miserably in rookie ball, that’s an important event that deserves prominent coverage. It is depressing, but still…
cdb — that’s a good question. The short answer is that I’m borrowing SaberScouting’s adjusted overall future potential (AOFP) which is what the acronym is linked to in the post.
The longer version is this: The grades for each individual pitch (and command) are based on the non-linear 20-80 scale described in the Prospect Primer. I say non linear because an 80 isn’t twice as good as a 40 — it’s significantly better in a fashion that isn’t represented strictly by the arbitrary number assigned to it. When you are looking at a single pitch — say the fastball — there are a lot of pitchers with a 55 fastball. There’s a lot of pitchers with a 55 slider. There’s a lot of pitchers with 55 command. There are not a lot of pitchers that combine all three.
We know that pitchers need a certain repertoire to succeed as a major league starter. Evaluating each pitch in isolation is important but then evaluating the combined result of each individual part of the skill set and judging the effectiveness of that combined skillset is just as critical. A pitcher with a 50 fastball may only rate a 45 in their AOFP because they have no breaking pitch or offspeed pitch. Thus a score of 50 in AOFP is harder to acheive than in any single area. The scale shifts a bit, if you will, making a slightly different spread for AOFP than for any individual skillset.
I hope that clears things up — I’d suggest checking out SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial since that may make more sense than my own explanation. Hope that helps — and if you have any other questions about the eval, don’t feel bad about asking them. The info’s only useful if our readers understand it.
very nice report, on the pitches. pj never threw his slider until the 3rd pitch to nix in the 3rd inning. his command is kinda hard to judge because he will have games where he will walk more because he will never give in to a hitter, he would walk a run in before he gives in. for instance against nashville a week ago he never threw a slider , had only 2 ks but a week later against the same team,he used his slider all day for 9ks.the thing he told me the other day was he is making a couple of mistakes every game & they arent really squaring them up but getting just enough to hit it out of the yard. while i do agree he is pretty much a finished product he is still making adjustments & trying all kinds of things in his bullpens , dont be surprised to see him come up with a new pitch , he is always trying different stuff. but i strongly disagree about him holding up 180-200 innings. he would just be getting going . thanks for the coverage of all the minors , you guys do a great job..
thanks for the explanation. I think what confused me was that I was assuming league average meant league average for starters - when in fact it means league average for all pitchcers - including the mop-up guys sitting in the bullpen waiting for the next 8 run lead or deficit. So a league averaeg pitcher can sit at the end of the rotation. Comprendo…
Azru, that SaberScouting site you link to says that very few tools are ever graded at an 80. Are you (or any other readers) aware of anyone currently playing that is graded at an 80 for any particular tool? Just curious as to how dominant that would be. Also, for reference, what would Wainwright’s curve be graded at?
Walters is one guy I’ve somehow adopted a greater than normal interest in.
I would say his early returns in Memphis are somewhat mixed. I hope he has a strong finish because he’s the profile that will get held back as soon as there is a reason to. The question will always be whether his stuff will play as he moves up.
I kinda think it will hold up fine, if he can locate. If he does make it, I think he’d be a great fit in a rotation. I have a pet theory (with nothing quantifiable to support it) that you gain a slight edge by bringing different looks in the rotation one day to the next. One thing PJ would be is unique. Batters won’t have a lot of comps as far as starters working with the same velocities. And I’m not sure there are many comps for the changeup either. I think throwing someone like Garcia, following him up with Walters, and then following him up with Wainwright could have a type of symbiotic effect. Again, just my intuitive beliefs…nothing of substance to support it.
On a side note, I suspect a stronger correlation in the bullpen. Another benefit to be gained by throwing different looks at hitters from the pen. For this reason, among others, I am pretty cheesed off that Worrell didn’t get the call.
cdb — I’m guessing here but Zumaya’s fastball, Carlos Gomez’s speed and Ichiro’s hitting for average could all be 80s on the scouting scale. That would be a great question for the guys at saberscouting though seeing as how they’re actual scouts and all.
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I’d label Wainwright’s curve a 60-65 although I’m not sure what it would take to get an 80 for a curveball.
Some examples of 80’s…
Johan Santana’s changeup
Joel Zumaya’s fastball
Mariano Rivera’s cutter
Rick Ankiel’s curveball?
Ryan Howard’s power
Michael Bourn’s speed
Rick Ankiel’s throwing arm
3up, Walters threw his slider twice to Nix to lead off the game but didnt throw it again until the 3rd.
Some more 80’s:
Aaron Miles’ grit
David Eckstein’s scrappyness
Derek Jeter’s captain-ing
Ryan Theriot’s gamer-ness
ok, my bad , i wouldnt know..
PJ threw about 150 innings each season during 3 at S. Alabama U. His durability should be good.
The mainstay of the Cardinals rotation about 1990-93 was Tewksbury. He was a 6′4″ RHP who relied on movement and changing speeds. Tewksbury was quite successful in the majors.
[...] on May 30th in Des Moines. I have not gone through and applied scounting grades like Az did for the 5/4/08 game, but I was able to make some useful observations. I also took a lot of pictures (I was a guest at [...]