Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus chatted on Thursday and answered a question about the Cardinals organizational attitude towards pitcher health:
Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Two part question - #1 Is there an underlying reason for the Cardinals‘ seemingly high injury rate among picthers (Carpenter, Mulder, Isringhausen, Kinney, Brad Thompson, Tyler Johsnon all just this year)? #2 Is the club doing anything to try to address the problem on a more macro level?
Will Carroll: (Warwick Avenue by Duffy) I think 1 is best explained that three of those came into the organization as upside-based injury risks. If you bring in the type of guys they do, some are going to blow up. With Carpenter, there was quite the run there. On 2, yes, they’ve definitely been looking at it, overhauling their minor league pitching structure and doing some very forward thinking things. They have Sig Mejdal in the front office, remember. He’s in the top five of smart guys I’ve met in the game.
In other chatting news, Matt Blood at Baseball America answered questions about the draft. He answers a lot of questions about players that we have discussed for the Cardinals in the first round, but he only answered one Cardinal-specific question:
Q: Dannie Brasco from Athens, Ga asks:
I am a HUGE Cardinals fan, and I was wondering what the possibility that we could draft Melville and DeVall?A: Matt Blood: There is a good possibility of getting at least one of the two prep pitchers. Melville will most likely be available at pick 13 and should be in the Cardinals’ mix. The same is true for Devall at pick 39 when the Red Birds choose second.
The organization had a pretty good day, going 4-1 and more importantly, I was able to breathe a small sigh of relief when I saw Colby’s line in the box score. All the details are after the jump.
- Rasmus had a solid night, going 2-4 with a walk.
- Joe Mather continues to crush the ball. He only went 1-5, but hit his tenth homer of the season. Brian Barden also homered and walked in going 1-4.
- Nick Stavinoha went 3-5; D’Angelo Jimenez went 2-5.
- The boys did most of their damage against former friend Chris Narveson, who gave up seven runs (four earned). We also tagged Derrick Turnbow, who gave up three runs in two thirds of an inning (four walks!).
- On our side of the pitching ledger, Blake Hawksworth had a solid outing, lasting 6.1 innings and giving up two runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks. He also struck out four.
- Matthew Scherer pitched the final 2.2 innings, giving up only a walk and striking out a pair.
- They are apparently still easing Adam Ottavino back into starting, as he only went three innings and 59 pitches. It is a little curious that they allowed him to bat for himself after he finished the third inning. If they had expected to take him out, I would have thought they would have just pinch hit for him, but I guess they didn’t want to use a bench player so early in the game. Anyway, his results were better than the last time out, but that isn’t saying much. He gave up three runs, two were earned, on three hits and three walks. He also struck out two.
- Kyle Sadlowski and Marco Gonzalez each threw two scoreless innings, with Sadlowski walking three and Gonzales striking out four. Nick Webber also pitched a scoreless frame.
- Luke Gregerson got the save, but gave up a run on three hits in the ninth.
- Shane Robinson went 1-3 with two walks and a stolen base.
- Brandon Yarbrough went 3-4 with a pair of doubles and a walk.
- Andrew Brown was the hitting star of the night, going 3-4 with a double. He has been on a tear since getting called up from Quad Cities; Thursday’s game was the fourth consecutive game in which he has had multiple hits.
- James Rapoport went 2-4 with a stolen base.
- Daryl “Tools” Jones went 0-2 and was hit by a pitch twice. He also threw a runner out at the plate from leftfield.
- Elvis Hernandez got the start and gave up three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out five.
- Justin Fiske pitched two scoreless innings, striking out four and Francisco Samuel pitched 1.1 scoreless innings, striking out two.
- The team was held to four hits: two by Matthew Aburr, including a homer; and one each by Domnit Bolivar and D’Marcus Ingram.
- The pitching wasn’t much better. Thomas Eager gave up six runs on six hits and three walks over 3.1 innings and Cardoza Tucker gave up a run on two hits in 1.2 innings.
- The lone pitching bright spot was Eduardo Sanchez, who pitched the final four innings without giving up a run while striking out two.
VSL Cardinals 4, VSL Mariners 2
- There were no extra base hits by the Cardinals, so I’ll have to go with Anthony Fonseca for the hitter of the night. He went 2-3 with a walk. Gerardo Mannbel went 2-4 and also helped turn a pair of double plays.
- The pitching line of the night goes to Hector Corpas, who struck out three over 3.1 innings and only gave up one hit.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
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One other note, last I checked, De La Cruz threw out 3 of 4 basestealers last night. Sure needs to pick up the hitting though. Oh well, he’s still young.
Gerardo Mannbel is my new prospect mancrush.
I was listening to the Springfield game, and the PBP announcer kept mentioning the defensive shortcomings of Mark Shorey. Apparently this was the second time in a week that he has gone back for a ball and had a ball hit him square in the glove and had it bounce out. They gave the batter a double instead of an error, but the batter later scored on a throwing error by Shorey from short rightfield. They had mentioned that Shorey’s throw ended up 20-30 feet up the third base line. That is some brutal accuracy for a throw from a shallow rightfielder to home plate.
And of course all of this took place while Ottavino was pitching. Once again his defense helps him out. Ottavino was battling all night and got out of some tough jams unscathed until Shorey’s throwing error allowed two runs to score.
Rasmus 2-4 with an RBI and a walk…that makes my heart flutter….now let’s put up that kind of line for the rest of the month colby!
Baby Step return to respectability, Colby.
I thought I heard where Colby smoked a ball just fall in the AB where he popped out to Branyon. I could be wrong as I had the game on in the background but I thought it was him batting.
If nothing else, Colby has hit some sharp balls the last couple weeks.
You gotta wonder when Mather’s time will come. All he does is hit. I would take him over 2 of our current ML OFs right now.
Thomas Eager is starting to become a bad word around here.
Its like saying, man I cant believe he Eager’d that ball or man cheating on his GF was a real Eager thing to do.
Whomever the scout that said to Luhnow that Gary Daley and Thomas Eager were worthy of top 5 round draft picks, shouldnt have his job.
Mean I know…but man what a waste.
This Andrew Brown has some pop and can walk a bit. Might have something there.
Colby’s first hit was a bunt Chris Narveson thew away, and his 2nd was a sharp liner into center the CF let go under his glove and roll to the wall allowing Freese and Colby come all the way around to score.
After his last multi hit game he went 0-for-22 until last night 2 hits to start the game, then finished hitless 0-for-2 with a walk, Including a POP to 3rd in the 9th against Nashville’s 3rd baseman who came into pitch.
It would be nice for him to find at hit tonight, and try to string a little hit streak together, take it one strep at a time get back over .200 then go from there.
I was at mccormicks first game with springfield and pop did the same thing letting him bat and tan taking him out.
A starting outfield of Schumaker, Ankiel and Mather sounds pretty good to me right now. I don’t have much hope for Duncan, regardless of what the stats may say. And though I have hope for Barton, it’s not as much as many do, because he still needs to put some polish on his game.
Schumaker, on the other hand, has been greatly under-appreciated this year and I suspect (I hope) he will continue in the leadoff spot. Duncan, however, should never bat any higher then sixth, imo.
Luhnow himself observed Daley throw. Daley has Scott Boras as his agent. Boras is selective about representing amateurs. Scott’s scouts flagged Daley as a ML arm, not just the Cards.
Daley pitched well in the NYPa League and he began the 2007 season ok at Palm Beach, before falling apart. The problem seems to be that Daley has lost control and confidence. I am ok with drafting Daley on grounds of arm strength and with the hope he could learn to pitch.
Degerman and Eager show the danger of Moneyball (factoring college stats over tools).
Eager is a factor of Moneyball? Really? You think so? He struckout 7.07 per 9 while his team as a whole struckout 7.26 per 9. Thats not Moneyball to me. He also didn’t have the greatest control, but at least he was better than his team average there. He also had more airouts than groundouts and he was the only Cardinal pitcher drafted in first day last season that had a GO/AO lower than 2. And in 2006 he showed absolutely nothing walking more guys than he struckout. Me thinks Mr. Eager got a scout to fall in love with him.
Curious why you think he is a factor of Moneyball.
Eager is moneyball, because he racked up fine stats at Cal Poly, but he’s not very good from a tools viewpoint. He has a high effort delivery and was said to resemble Rob Dibble, without a plus fastball. Given his amateur background, Eager should do well at Quad Cities. The reason he is not doing well: he does not have quality pitches. At least Maiques and Daley have strong arms, even if there control has deserted them.
“he racked up fine stats at Cal Poly”
Um, when?
Eager had 10 wins, two shy of the Cal Poly record. His velocity was 90-91, and he has a hard slider. A violent delivery and does not change speeds much. Comes after hitters.
The year before, the Cards had selected Daley from the same school. Daley throws harder, but had less success at Cal Poly. Of the two men, Daley is the toolsier, while Eager was more successful in college, with lesser pitches. Daley was one of the more highly anticipated collegians going into his junior season, coming off a good showing in the Alaska summer league. Boras chose to rep Daley and Boras is very selective, wanting potential bonus babies. Boras would NEVER rep a boring guy like Eager.
The Cards drafted Eager for a reason. It was not that he had good stuff and impressed a scout. It was because he threw some innings and won some games. That is what Moneyball is, favoring results that seem to exceed tools. Daley was the opposite; strong arm strength, poorer results. The Cards must have gambled that wood bat baseball would help a hardthrower like Daley.
You have yet to show that Eager put up good stats. And let me assure you the “moneyball” philosophy does not include wins as a stat that matters and doesn’t adhere to “he threw some innings and won some games” so he must be good. The Cardinals front office is one of the most sabermetric friendly ones in the all of the MLB and you better believe they do not use wins as stat to evaluate a pitcher.
The Cards did draft Eager for a reason and all evidence points to a scout falling in love with him, for whatever reason. There is no evidence at all that he anything close to a “moneyball” pitcher because he did NOT rack up fine stats at Cal Poly.
One difference in our opinions hinges on what constitutes fine collegiate stats. Eager was drafted down in the 5th round. (With a large compensatory round added in, this is akin to the 6th round.) In general, teams are not going to find a college player with a big tool chest at this point in the draft.
Degerman had a great final season at Rice. Despite an ugly delivery, the Cards popped him at the end of the 4th round and signed him for $100K. Kyle Russell hit 28 homers or so, has an ugly swing, the Cards took him in the middle of the 4th, adjusting too for his bonus expectations. Shane Robinson hit for a fine average, but is of modest size, so we went for him at the end of the 5th. These guys are like Eager: good college stats, but with some questions, explaining why they were not drafted higher.
In comparsion to Eager, Daley had lousy stats at Cal Poly, falling from about 25th among college players going into his junior season to outside the Top 100. Mitch Boggs had an era of about 5 or 6 in the Georgia bullpen. Both had good arms. Daley has struggled, Boggs has realized his potential, go figure. People are different and hard to predict.
Eager lacks the upside of Daley or Boggs. But then PJ Walters has below average arm strength, yet PJ has been excellent as pro, unlike the heralded Degerman. The Cards were probably hoping Eager could be more like PJ and pitch better than his arm strength. However, in the early returns in the Midwest League, Eager has not been good.
Yeah the Cards consider college stats. Ollie Marmol led Division 1 NCAA in runs scored per game (though at high scoring Univ. of Charleston). He would be a moneyball pick, like Eager. Though scouts did not like Marmol’s stick, he can run and field, so the Cards hoped he can improve the hitting. If Marmol had looked good with the bat, he might have gone in rd 2 or 3.
Ok, so you still have not mentioned any stats in any posts you have made about Eager, other than saying he had fine stats. Which is completely untrue. And you continue to call him a moneyball pick, which is also completely untrue. Kid couldn’t even get a 2/1 K/BB ratio and barely had a 7 K/9. For him to be a moneyball pick and be picked in the 5th round he would have to had outstanding stats, you know like Josh Dew who was drafted in the 14th round. The Cardinals would not draft a guy based purely on stats in the first 5 rounds anyways, they have a good mix of both scouting and stats. Not that this is case with Eager anyways, because he didn’t put up good stats.
Your comparison to Walters is also way off, Walters did have good stats.
Oh here is the thread with Shhh. You seem to focus on one metric, Ks, to the exclusion of anything else.
Eager threw 111 innings, 16 starts, almost 7 IP per game average. Eager was a starter, in contrast to JD Dew. He had an ERA of about 3.25. These are ok stats and helps explain whe MLB scouting combine ranked him 133 in the nation. He outpitched the harder throwing Daley of 2006 and Norris (drafted by the Astros in 06).
In the draft, Eager fell past where he should have been drafted by a couple of rounds, showing that 29 teams had downgraded him. The Cards were probably hoping to find an undervalued talent, in draft terms.
Degerman, Stavinoha, Shane Robinson, PJ Walters, Kyle Russell, Steven Hill, JD Dew, and Eager are Moneyball picks, because they played well in college, yet also had some drawbacks in the eyes of scouts. Degerman an ugly delivery, Russell an ugly swing, PJ below average fast ball velocity, Hill too small for 1B, Robinson a little rascal, Dew a reliever, Eager a high effort delivery and not enough variation in speed.
For contrast, Mark Michael, Gary Daley Jr, and Boggs did not obtain good statistics in college, so were chosen because of arm strength. They were tools picks. Boggs has been great, Daley began ok, but came apart last season.
So too Degerman, Russell, and Eager have disappointed, while Dew, Hill, Stavinoha, and Robinson have done well in the minors. The results of both stats picks and tools picks have been mixed.