Per Matthew Leach, the Cardinals are leaning towards drafting a college pitcher in the first round.
“It’s fairly thin once you get past the top two or three or four,” he said. “I think we’re OK where we sit. We’ve got a choice between four or five guys, and probably one of them will be there. Depending on how the board lines up, I think there’s a real possibility that we go college pitcher.”
It’s not hard to fill in the blanks; those four or five guys would be:
1. Brian Matusz
2. Aaron Crow
3. Shooter Hunt
4. Christian Friedrich
5. Tanner Scheppers
Matusz is a no go; he could be taken as high as 3rd or 4th overall. There’s been some chatter that Crow has slipped as of late. He was Superman for that 42 scoreless inning streak of his, now he’s just been merely mortal. Dr. Evil himself, Scott Boras, also allegedly advises him. The big thing to me is that the Cardinals are interested in drafting pitchers with “classic mechanics”, pitching mechanics that are conducive to long-term health of an arm. Crow and his big, ugly inverted W is the exact opposite of that. I admit I’ve begun to buy into Chris O’Leary’s theories, and if those theories prove out then I fear Crow could end up being another Mark Prior or Anthony Reyes. I also believe the Cards subscribe to similar ideas, and the recent picks of David Kopp and Clayton Mortensen bear that out. That’s three strikes against Crow. I know it would be cool to have the local product in the farm system to root for, but I don’t see that scenario happening even if he’s available.
Shooter Hunt is another high-octane arm who seems to have ironed out his control issues as the season has progressed. He’s been nigh unhittable but you wonder if those control issues will crop back up again. Scheppers has that shoulder issue, I’m not sure they want to gamble on that but it’s not inconceivable. Is it just a bone thing, or is their some structural damage to his shoulder muscles? How can they know that for sure?
I think when it all shakes out; they’ll end up with Friedrich. After watching all of these pitchers’ deliveries, he seems to have the least stressful outside of maybe Matusz. He also comes with polish, three pitches that grade as average or better, big K/9 #’s, and sterling summer league performance in the Cape. I’ve long thought it was destiny. But what if the Big 4 are gone by the time the 13 comes around? That’s not out of the question. Then what?
When the Cardinals haven’t gone the college pitcher route, they’ve gone the HS hitter route. Jim Callis predicted the Cardinals could take OF Zach Collier of Chino Hills, California. Collier is a well rounded player who looks like he could grow into some impressive power, but some feel he is more of a sandwich pick. Aaron Hicks is a high ceiling 5-tool prospect that scouts also like as a pitcher, he could intrigue the Cardinals, but he’s also pretty raw.
Outside of those two, if the scenario unfolds that the Cardinals don’t get a college arm, I think this could be the year they draft a big-time college bat. Yonder Alonso has caught and played left field besides playing first base at Miami. It would be hard to pass up on a bat like his, and I really love his batting eye. He’s walked 62 times in 51 games, a higher rate than anyone in the country, and his .816 slugging is 5th highest in the nation. There has also been talk that Brett Wallace has improved his defensive play at the hot corner, going from “butcher” to “myeh”. But of course there is nothing “myeh” about his bat, and he’s easily better than Craig or Freese and should be a relatively fast mover through the minors. It’s plausible to see Wallace taking over at 3B for Glaus in 2010. (And moving to LF in ’11…ahem!)
My final “if all else fails” scenario involves them taking Andrew Cashner of Texas Christian. The top closer in the draft that’s not far behind Josh Fields, Cashner makes sense IF they believe he could go back to starting and cut down the walks. Mechanically, he seems much more like their cup of tea…Chris, correct me if I’m wrong if you’re out there.
Update: Mayo has his latest mock, with Ryan Perry now going to the Cardinals. I have one thing to say: NOOOO!!!!! That is all.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
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Wallace is a real thick guy. Stumpy legs. I don’t see him in LF. He has a short stride - he’s not that slow as far as running the bases, but he’s not quick. Most scouting reports I have seen scream 1B.
There might not be a more overrated player in the entire draft or baseball as a whole then Ryan Perry
For all that stuff he gets smacked around like a soft tosser, he gives up hits and he doesnt strikeout people like his stuff suggests.
He is the worst possible thing you can take…a raw college RHP.
The last thing the Cards need is another RHP who profiles as a setup guy.
This system is LOADED with RH bullpen arms…that is not a good thing either.
B/c most of those RH bullpen arms are starters you drafted that couldnt cut it.
Dont continue to make the same mistakes.
That is a pretty darn good summary of where there Cardinals stand, I think. As stated, I like Friedrich. I’m more sold on Alonso than Wallace. The only scenario I think is unlikely is the Cardinals taking another college reliever in the first round. They caught me off guard with Kozma last year, so I do not discount the possibility of something totally out of the blue.
I’m hoping that Alonso is will be available at our pick, but I doubt it.
I’ve seen Perry pitch. No impressed. If the Birds take Perry it would be a huge mistake.
Interesting note: BA just released their top 100 with scouting reports today and I noticed that they say Alonso is limited to first base only. I wanted to cross-reference this, so I checked his page on minorleaguebaseball.com and the guy in the video says the same thing. If this is true, I would say that it eliminated any chance of the Cardinals grabbing him.
Friedrich would be a good choice. . .as would Shooter Hunt. I just don’t see them taking a polished college bat, because they NEVER go that route. In fact, the most recent high pick that fit that profile was Tyler Greene, and we all know how that worked out. Wallace’s bat/body screams “Lance Berkman” to me, and like Berkman I think he’ll be a combo 1B/OF. Don’t see him at 3B. He just doesn’t fit the Cards model, but then again neither did Daric Barton. I love Alonso, but I think he’ll go the way of LaPorta and get snatched up early by one of those teams who falls in love with his OBP. I think the only college bat that would tempt StL is if G. Beckham slid to us, but I don’t see that happening. Conor Gillaspie, perhaps?
In the sandwich round, I’m willing to bet we’ll take another pitcher, but I would love to get a guy like James Darnell of South Carolina into the organization. Don’t know about his glove, however.
A poster over at Cardstalk is saying that Amaury Marti has been shipped back to Mexico and may have been released:
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=541323
Given that the AAA outfield is crowded with young prospects and Marti is over the hill, it make sense. But I was pulling for him just the same.
As I posted on CardsTalk…today was the first time I got to see D.J. Mitchell from Clemson pitch.
If he isnt a Cardinal pick at some point on drafty day….it will be completely blown away.
If the Cards think Wallace can play 3B or LF…he becomes a viable pick at #13.
I still think Friedrich if he is there at #13 is the best pick…the K per 9, the BAA, the hitch free delivery and the fact he is LH, only 20 and showed great success at the Cape..makes him an ideal pick.
This franchise needs an influx of LH starters who actually project as starters not LOOGY’s
Great discussion guys….this is def becoming the goto site for anything Cards related.
With Mozeliak now in that GM spot, I wonder if Luhnow will draft differently without Walt over his shoulder. (i.e. if he has a bit more freedom to truly take the best player he thinks is available). Case in point - if the Cards do opt for a college bat like Wallace, Alonso or Gillaspie, they will be breaking away from their traditional model of drafting. Anyway, I’ll just be curious to see how our draft shapes up.
I onestly hadn’t thougth of that Toddy, it makes sense although I think a lot of the high floor/low ceiling picks in recent years came from the systems overall lack of depth. I’m hoping now that there are a few more bullets in the gun Luhnow and Co will go for more high ceiling guys on Day 1, not just towards the end of the draft.
I really dont think the GM change will make much difference…from all acounts Jocketty didnt have much input.
The budget dictates what they take..b/c like most things in life you get what you pay for.
If you want the better talent you have to pay for…and that usually means going over slot to buy out college from the HS kids.
The Cards have righted the ship, they now have a margin for error they didnt have in past to take chances on players.
But it will come down to what Dewitt gives Luhnow…just like we used to talk about how Jocketty worked magic with a limited budget…same can be said for Luhnow.
Jocketty didnt play into why they passed on Porcello……the budget did.
I’d be very unhappy to see a reliever drafted in the first round. Pretty much by definition, they’re not high-leverage guys, and you really want the first-round choice to be a potential high-leverage player — even if there is some risk involved.
To me, ideal would be to see Hunt or Friedrich drop into the #13 slot because of some earlier team getting infatuated with someone and overdrafting. If they get one of those guys, then if Scheppers is still available the next time it’s their turn, take a flyer on him, weird shoulder injury or no weird shoulder injury; see previous comment about high leverage with risk.
toddy, tyler greene was anything but a polished college bat. he was a high risk college bat. the polished college bat that was available at that pick was travis buck.
as for what they would do if the top 4 pitchers are gone, i think alonso would also be gone. i think i would take brett wallace just b/c i have no doubt that he will mash his way to the big leagues. another possibility would be grabbing jake odorizzi, but i doubt they would.
i think in that scenario they take a guy like cashner and convert him to a starter or go way off the board and surprise everybody.
From Mayo’s chat today:
“brett0202: Jon, in your new mock Draft, you have both Perry & Cashner going before Fields. I thought Fields was regarded as the best of the 3 and is also a college senior (despite being a Boras guy). Is it that you think Perry & Cashner are viewed higher?
Mayo: Sorry that one got cut off a bit, but I don’t think the Boras thing factors into it now that Fields is a senior. The difference is that some teams think Perry and Cashner could be starters. With Fields, yes, you get a good short reliever who can move fast. Perry and Cashner have bigger arms than Fields and if you think they can start, they could have front of the rotation potential.”
So maybe he thinks the Cards may turn Perry into a starter, not sure. Also in that same Mayo chat:
“knuckler26: Who has the sickest stuff as a pitcher in the Draft?
Mayo: Just on pure stuff, it might have to be Perry. Guy can flat-out throw.”
Ok, so last thing I’ll take from Mayo’s chat because it might be somewhat Cardinal related:
“draysbay: Where about in the Draft do you see Zach Putnam getting taken, and will it be as a pitcher or hitter?
Mayo: Looks like most are looking at Putnam as a pitcher. I don’t think he makes it out of the first half of the second round and could even sneak into the back end of the first.”
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080521&content_id=2743374&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp
Also from Goldstein’s chat today (maybe Cardinal related):
“HeAdFiRsT (Michigan): Where do you see Zach Putnam as a RHP, is he worth a first round pick?
Kevin Goldstein: I’ve heard no first-round talk on Putnam — he’s more of a good-not-great kind of player who will likely go in the sandwich or second round.”
“Jim (Bay Area): I am heartbroken with the latest news on Scheppers. Is he still first round material? I’ve read that there may be more than we know as to the true extent and cause of the injury.
Kevin Goldstein: It’s really just awful news for him, and from what I can tell, there’s no way he’s going in the first round.”
“nb (Illinois): What’s your take on Odorizzi?
Kevin Goldstein: First-round arm. Size and stuff put him among the top high school pitchers around.”
http://baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=464
Hopefully thats not too much copying and pasting for you erik (it’s all free content, don’t worry).
I’ve officially jumped on the Ethan Martin bandwagon.