Tim Melville pitched in our town last night against a scrappy, senior-laden team with no hitting prospects above NAIA. His numbers wer not particularly impressive: 5 2/3 IP, 5H, 6BB, 1ER, don’t know how many Ks.

My son watched him pitch. Now, he is no scout, but he was a 1st team class 4 all-state pitcher and pitches D1 right now (at least when his elbow isn’t barking). He played summer ball with Max Scherzer and Nathan Culp and has competed against the likes of Kyle Drabek.

He said Melville is a “max effort” guy who couldn’t throw a fastball in the zone past a slightly better than average high school team, had a lazy curveball, and a mostly non-existent change.

Melville threw in the low-90s when he faced him during Melville’s freshman year and my son says he looked about the same yesterday. I have concerns about a kid who hasn’t picked up significant velocity from 15 to 18.

I hope the kid has a great career and all that, but I will be crushed if the Cardinals waste a 13th overall pick on him.

Erik, that comment was not directed at you or anyone else in particular. It is just a general feeling that you get from people who follow prospects. There’s always this distorted view about how great high school players are and that taking a college player is always being conservative. For me, I think the teams who ignore any of that stuff and focus on what the player actually is consistently do the best in their draft.

Generally, I would prefer the Cardinals take position players with their first rounder and then draft pitchers from there and find gems based on volume. Also, I don’t think teams should draft for need in MLB, but I’m honestly not crazy about another guy to be an outfielder unless they honestly see and believe that he can rake like Laporta. Optimally, middle infied prospects are the most valuable, but I really don’t think the Cardinals have a great shot at getting the premium guys at those position. All in all, I trust Lurnow. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt from me (at least for now) regardless of what direction they go.

Scheppers was my #1 guy I thought might be around at 13, and now he certainly will…not sure what to make of his injury, though.

My preference would be for a big time college hitter, perhaps because of the success we’ve seen with some of them like Matt LaPorta. Ultimately I think we end up with Friedrich, which would be fine with me.

Really? They have picked one HS player in the top 230 picks the past two drafts. A total of 18 picks. And yeah I cherry-picked 230 and left out 2005.

But I honestly don’t think Luhnow was giving anything away in this piece. There is no reason for him to hint to anyone other than people inside the FO who they might take. And damn you Scheppers for getting hurt.

Also, after reading the article, personally I believe it is being over-blown. The Cards may well go in that direction, but nothing Lurhnow said in that interview made me believe it is a forgone conclusion. Furthermore, since Lurhnow has taken over the Cards have actually been pretty balanced between high school and college players, at least with their very early picks. I think Jeff was doing his best to avoid giving anything away actually and wouldn’t have expected any different answer even if they hated all the college arms.

I don’t get the disdain for college arms either. I read Baseball America, etc. too and despite their tendency to favor high school players for upside — BA’s very own research indicates that you’re pretty much equally likely to get a good player either way you go. I’d love a toolsy high school kid, but would he be just the next Daryl Jones or the other end and be Colby Rasmus?

I try to judge players based on what I perceive them to be and not what age or school level they are at. Last year, I wanted the Cardinals to take Porcello. This year, I like Christian Friedrich.