The next edition of “Three up, three down” should be up tomorrow. I’ve been a little busy lately so I haven’t really had time to put together any midday post ideas. So when in doubt, why not do a prospect ranking? The lazy bloggers’ way out! Don’t get me wrong, I’ve taken some time and really thought this through. When doing my rankings, I put my amateur GM hat on and just rank them in the order I’d want them in a trade. We’re about 40 games in; there’s been some moving and shaking. I don’t want to too heavily weigh early returns, but some prospects have gone splat (Maiques), while some are moving quickly through the system, which has to be taken into account. So for what it’s worth, here ya go:
1. Colby Rasmus-As terrible as Colby has been so far, it’s not like his tools have just evaporated. He’s still far and away the best prospect in the system; just needs more time to adjust than we hoped. I’d like to stop seeing him whiff 2 or 3 times a game as he has done lately.
2. Chris Perez-A few more blown saves by Izzy, or the closer committee, or whoever, and he will be the closer. (I would hope.)
3. Bryan Anderson-Hot April led to a promotion to AAA and he’s yet to show signs of slowing. Improved defense.
4. Jaime Garcia-Like Anderson, hot first month led to AAA call up, showing himself to be a K machine.
5. Pete Kozma-1st rounder doing more than just holding his own in first shot at the A level, his coaches have noted that he’s become a clubhouse leader.
6. Brian Barton-Still considering him a prospect until he hits the magic number of AB’s, which may be a while at the current rate. But when he’s playing, he’s playing well.
7. Clayton Mortensen-Has had his ups and downs in AA, which is to be expected.
8. Kyle McClellan-Rocketing up the board here. Impressed in big league camp, now a very nice set up reliever who could see some saves opportunities. Also, has opportunity to make it as a starter in 2009.
9. Adam Ottavino-Struggles due shoulder problem has been the story of his early season.
10. Tyler Herron-Herron won’t even walk his dog. Herron walks nothing and no man. Aggressively promoted to AA after nice April. I’m noticing a recurring theme.
11. Jon Jay-Finally healthy, swinging a hot stick in AA.
12. Mitch Boggs-What I said about Mortensen applies to Boggs. Ups and downs in trip-A to be expected.
13. Jose Martinez-Yet to really catch fire.
14. Joe Mather-Hitting very well in AAA, will need someone to get injured or seriously slump to make it to majors before September.
15. Jess Todd-Now in AA after hot April. Strong K/BB ratio 4:1.
16. David Kopp-Ground ball machine performing reasonably well at advanced A level. Call him up to AA lately. Let’s stick with protocol, people!
17. P.J. Walters-I’m a little worried about the HR/9 rates, but it’s nice to see him in AAA already. I know some of you are going to protest him being down here at #17.
18. Jason Motte-Flamethrower looks to be ready for show now, secondary offerings, schmecondary offerings.
19. Allen Craig-Coming alive after a rough April.
20. Jarrett Hoffpauir-He’s still getting on base, but not as often as before, and showing little to no power.
21. Mark Worrell-Makes more sense at the MLB level than Parisi, not much left to prove in minors,
22. Steve Hill-At first whiff of full season, according to Luhnow Hill has “mastered a ball”. Homered in 1st game in AA.
23. David Freese-The return for the charred remains of Jim Edmonds is hitting OK for making the jump from A to AAA.
24. Daryl Jones-You could think he’s finally starting to live up to his tools if you look just at his “slash” stats. Big underlying concern about his 30 K%.
25. Mike Parisi-At long last, 2004 draft’s 1st MLB player. Seems to have decent stuff, but fringy command.
I plan to have my next ranking post draft. Debate away.
Filed under: Prospect rankings, Top 25
erik
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What about some of the other outfielders? Stavinoha and Robinson both come to mind because they’re having excellent starts so far this season.
I guess it speaks to the depth of our organization when someone like Stavinoha would have been a top 5 or 10 prospect in 2004 or 2005, and he doesn’t even make the cut for the top 25 now.
Nice list, Erik. I actually made my own prospect list over the past few days, and ours are very similar. I’ve got Martinez and Ottavino lower than you, as I am not impressed with their seasons so far. I’ve got Mather up around 8 and I’ve got Todd cracking my top 10. In my opinion, you left out one big omission: Luke Gregerson. He has been absolutely unhittable for 2 straight years now, and has one of the nastiest sliders around.
I’ve been extremely bored and even looked at the Cubs’ prospects a little while yesterday. Wow, I can’t believe how little they have in their system… If BA has the Cubs ranked anywhere near the top 20 after this year, I am calling out Jim Callis on his Chicago hometown bias.
Rookie status isn´t just AB´s and innings pitched, it also goes away at 45 days (non September) service time which I believe was yesterday. (maybe earlier if they started service time the day the Japan series opened)
Mortenson and (even much more so) Ottavino haven´t earned their ranking.
Gregerson is the big ommission. He´s putting up numbers at AA that Perez, Motte, and Worrell only dreamed of. He should replace Ottavino.
I´d have Robinson and Stavinoha on their too towards the end. Replacing Fresse and probably Parisi.
Keep in mind I’m not just judging performance, because performance, especially this early, can be really fluky and some can be playing above their heads or below what their tools suggest. Mortensen is going to need to time to adjust, he’s just one year removed from college. I didn’t expect him to dominate AA. Ottavino gets a little bit of a pass, he’s lost a tick or 3 on his fastball due to some shoulder issues.
For me, there is not much to like about Robinson or Stavinoha (who is 26 and repeating a level, 2 big strikes) Robinson’s future is probably that of a 4th or 5th OF due to him not being the toolsiest. If he can hit well above .300 with some steals then I would think about putting him in there. And about Luke Gregerson-he was my #26. Tyler Henley was a close call as well.
i still think garcia is #2. i’ll take a possible number 2 starter over a control challenged closer.
I’m with FGC, Garcia was my #2 at the end of last season and still is.
I’m happy that our 1-4 prospects should see the majors in 1-2 years.
I love the way that they are being very aggressive in their promotions. They are really challenging these guys and for the most part its working out for the best however i think there is a pitcher or two who isn’t ready for their level quite yet.
I completely agree with Jeff’s statement. It’s great to see, its been a while.
So, Tatis (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=123107) is in the minors, but he is tied for 3rd in MiLB with 11 HRs.
Holyyyyy crap, I’m ready for the draft, mainly so I can debate the merits of our draftees and where they fit into lists like this.
My best guess for who we take at #13 is someone currently ranked in the 30-40 range.
Actually, I think Mortensen and Garcia are too low. Anderson is a decent hitter, but to this point has displayed limited power and below average catch and throw skills. Garcia likely has the highest ceiling of any Cardinals starting pitcher and Mortensen (while might be struggling at AA) is my bet to actually be the best end product (pitching wise) in the system. Sure, he’s going to struggle at Springfield, but AA is a big and quick jump for a kid just drafted last year — even if he was a college senior.
I’d certainly take Barton off this list; he’s a major leaguer, and cannot be anything but a major leaguer for St. Louis. However, he is a useful calibration point. Being #6 on this says that numbers 1-5 have the potential to be valuable contributors indeed. I’d move Henley or Gregerson into the spot he vacates.
A few other observations: I’d move Garcia up on this (possibly all the way to #1, Raz or no Raz), and probably also Craig and Hill, who could be really good if he can hold a non-corner position, or at least combine some catching with one a la E. Marrero, etc. Ottavino (until he consistently throws strikes) and Martinez move down.
Forgot to add: The improvement in this list compared to past ones is AMAZING.
A Former Memphis Redbird who had a pretty decent year with the bat last year, Edgar Gonzalez, is getting a chance in the big leagues.
He is starting tonight against the cubbies on the opposite side of the field as his brother Adrian for the padres.
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