(No Three Up, Three Down today. I’m thinking it will work better as a bi-weekly series.)
Admittedly, I haven’t quite jumped on the whole Pitch F/X bandwagon quite yet. It does make for a more enjoyable experience when you’re stuck in one of the MLB.tv’s (EXTREMELY STUPID) blackout zones. I can listen to Shannon and Rooney and watch gameday, at least getting a decent idea of how different pitcher’s pitches move and track the game a little better. Anyway, while I was unable to see Mike Parisi make his big league debut last night, I was able to get a better idea of his droppish/droppifying (?) curveball last night, and learned that he has a little more giddy up in his fastball than was previously reported. Thanks to this handy-dandy little pitch F/X tool by Dan Brooks, we can look do a little bit of scouting on Parisi.
By the chart, he was throwing his fastball in the 92-94 MPH range, and he dialed it up to nearly 96. That’s faster then the reported 91-93 range we have heard Parisi normally throws, perhaps it was due to some extra adrenaline flowing in his MLB debut.
From these other graphs we see that big break on his curveball. Why he abandoned it in his 2nd inning, I have no idea. His command of his fastball was erratic at times, but he managed to leave the game unscathed.
While we’re looking at Parisi, I figure we may as well take a look at Kyle McClellan. Rather then posting the charts, you can view Kyle’s full player card here.
No question about it, McClellan has some big league stuff. 93 MPH fastball the he can dial up to 96, and a very nice curveball/slider combo. It is no wonder his # 1 similarity score is none other than teammate Adam Wainwright. We’ve long heard that McClellan has the stuff to start, but he also could have the stuff to close should Izzy’s hip get balky on us again. (Some fear it already is). Speaking of Baron von Isringhausen, he’s McClellan’s 3rd most similar player. I hope the Cardinals recognize McClellan’s abilities, and allow him to slide into the rotation for 2009 after a bullpen apprenticeship, a la Wainwright.
Filed under: Kyle McClellan, Mike Parisi
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That’d make a lot of homegrown SP talent next year.. and a very cheap rotation. Carpenter, Wainwright, McClellan, Garcia, Parisi/Boggs in 09?
I’m not convinced that either Parisi or Boggs is a major league starter. Maybe one of them could be a fifth starter, but that seems to kind of be their ceiling.
Plus, Piniero is under contract for 09, so we would have to figure something out to do with him. One of those guys could take over the long reliever/spot starter role if Piniero is back. Plus, the above rotation is two rookies, a first year starter, and a pitcher a year removed from TJ…I’m not sure the Cards would be comfortable with so many Qs, and Dave Duncan usually seems to like reclamation projects with track records a little better with brand new guys.
On another note - I really hope Anthony Reyes doesn’t become the next Dan Haren. If we do trade him, I wish him success but I will also be pissed at him. I feel like he’s gotten much more of an opportunity to try to stick than Haren did, though, so the situation is already very different in terms of how the team handled it. Evidently Duncan did not want to trade Haren, which might also be different.
Also, check out: http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/5/6/473212/monday-midnight-minors-mus
The A’s pick at 12 so the analysis is pretty applicable to us. Not a lot of new stuff there, but good stuff nonetheless. He notably leaves out Shooter Hunt out of the starters discussed. He also leaves out some of the relievers that get discussed as first rounders, but I doubt the A’s or Cards will be taking a reliever in the 1st round (I hope the Cards don’t).
Also posted there, check out:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=martin
Some just have pictures, but some have video. Ethan Martin has hit 96 on the gun as a HS. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cards look his way at 13. He’s got a big body and reportedly has three above average pitches that could all end up being plus (I guess the fastball already is).
I’ve read some places that Aaron Hicks has some of the best tools, but it’s been more projection than performance. It’s going to be really interesting. I wish we had more than one early pick.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought Jaime Garcia along in a bullpen role next year and groom him for a starters role in 2010. Although, they could bring Garcia up later this year for a bullpen role and then give him a starting job in 2009.
Either way, they’re going to have a lot of pitching options next year. With Worrell, Motte, and Perez all ready for spots and McClellan and Garcia ready for starting roles, they’ll have quite a bit of money freed up to spend on impact bats.
A rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, McClellan, Garcia, Pineiro/Free Agent Starter/Boggs, etc will look pretty nice going into 2009. I do think they need to acquire a #2/#3 starter just to be on the safe side for next year. Like I said, they’ll have quite a bit of money coming off of the books at the end of the year, so they’ll have plenty of options.
Dan Haren was predictably better than Reyes, based on better minor league numbers.
I don’t think so, Beau. In four minor league seasons:
Reyes, 23-10, 3.26 ERA, 9.72 k/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.05 Whip
vs.
Haren, 32-17, 3.15 ERA, 8.77 k/9, 1.63 BB/9, 1.13 Whip
Reyes has a better winning percentage, more k’s per nine innings, and a lower whip. Plus they are very close in the other categories. You may have been able to predict it, but not based on the numbers.
parisi was definitely jacked up last night as evidenced by his erratic command, especially of his fb. The curve did look good, though. I had fun tracking that break from the first base line.
You know, in my, (admittedly limited) experience with Parisi, I’ve kind of always thought he’d make a nice reliever. The couple extra ticks on his heater would put him pretty consistently in that 92-93 range, and the way he improvises and alters the break on his curveball, I think he could just overwhelm hitters with it.
He can throw several different versions of his curve, and he could just gear up and blow a fastball by hitters while they’re still trying to figure out just which slop they should be looking for.
McClellan, to me, looks like he could be a reliever or starter equally well. I think his repertoire would play just fine either way.