I’d guess the biggest reason is park and league factors. A lot of the college guys we draft start off in the NY-Penn League, which is a hideous place to hit. The MWL seems to have evolved into more of a pitcher’s league the past several years, and the FSL has always been pitcher-friendly.

Our guys get to play in a good park and good league for hitting at AA, but then Memphis is another place where offensive numbers are depressed (even though the PCL is overall a good league for hitters).

Another possible explanation: A lot of these guys are being platooned and otherwise worked into the lineup when they have the greatest advantage. If you’re Chris Duncan and rarely hit against lefties in MLB, you’re probably going to have better overall numbers than you did when you had to face lefties in the minors.

Decided to examine HS pitchers taken in the second rd. the last few years (exempting ‘07; seems to soon to analyze):

2006:
Cory Rasmus (did not play ‘07 - surgery);
Steven Evarts (1.50 ERA, dominating in A ball so far this year);
Caleb Clay (2.14 in low A last season; missing ‘08?).

2005:
Chaz Roe (4.33, 170 IP in A last year);
Ryan Tucker (3.52, 140 IP for ‘07; 0.89 in 40 IP at AA for ‘08)
Trevor Bell (4.14, 115 IP - A ball, ‘07; 4.66 in 29 IP, high-A ‘08)
Beau Jones (still hasn’t moved past high-A - 5.30 in ‘08)
Michael Bowden (30 IP, 3.26 in AA this year)

From 2000 to 2004, 9 of 27 made the majors, few solidly contributing:

2004 (1 of 4):
Yovani Gallardo (well, we all know)

2003 (1 of 3):
Jo-Jo Reyes (has dominated the minors; looks ready to legimitately contribute to the Braves)

2002 (2 of 6):
Micah Owings (solid contributor for D-Backs now)
Jon Lester (Red Sox for a couple years now)

2001 (3 of 11):
Brandon League (struggling for Blue Jays)
Matt Chico (made majors in ‘07; mediocre for Nats)
J.P. Howell (MLB in ‘05; finally contributing to Rays this year)

2000 (3 of 7)
Joel Hanrahan (MLB in ‘07; struggling for Nats)
J.D. Durbin (brief MLB appearances; struggling in minors)
Manny Delcarmen (strong bullpen arm for Red Sox in ‘07; having rough ‘08 so far)

Moral of the story seems to be that none of these guys look to be special, and few ascended quickly - most of their college counterparts have had much stronger success.

Interesting, nonetheless.

There’s a few things working against him right now. 1) He’s probably behind Mather on the depth chart since he doesn’t offer as much power or any other significantly different skillset. 2) He’s repeating at Memphis as a 26 year old — there’s going to be a perceived judgement there regardless of true ability. 3) He hasn’t really changed his approach from last season to this one. A few less strikeouts, some more power but the results are worlds better than what we saw last season. He’s getting lucky in terms of production and no one should expect him to continue to hit .350.

I think his perfect world scenario is similar to Mather’s. A 4th outfielder with a little pop but limited defensively. Think .280/.320/.430 at Stavinoha’s peak. Not something to get terribly excited about and not someone demonstrably better than other corner outfield prospects in the system.

I am not convinced that Odorizzi is good value at 39, but the idea of taking projectable upside high school pitchers in the second and third rounds has always appealed to me. I haven’t looked it up, but my instinct says that a lot of all-star pitchers came to the big leagues through that route. If Odorizzi is still available at our second round pick then I would consider him.

Like I have said though, Luhnow seems to have his shit together–I have faith in his decisions…

A lot of people are starting to view Stavinoha as the next John Gall - although he may have even less power.

The guy can absolutely hit, but he’s never hit more than 15 HRs in a season, and he could be dominating AAA now because it’s his second season there.

People talk a lot about his age and say ‘he’s no longer a prospect,’ but he JUST turned 26, so that seems mildly ludicrous to me. Especially when we’re raving about Barton (26) and Ludwick (who’s just reaching his potential at 30).

Stavvy’s going to have a big year - I think we’ll see career highs in HRs and RBIs - so I hope the big club either trades him to make room for Jay or Robinson at Memphis, or finally gives him his shot in September. I think he’d be a very serviceable 4th/5th guy.

what would everyone think of grabbing a polished college pitcher like christian friedrich at 13 and then going for the upside high schooler in odorizzi at 39?

My mom actually has him in class and really doubts that college is much of a worry, he is leaning towards Louisville though. That my mom has him in calss and says that college is not a worry bothers me, a lot of rejects in her classes. I want some smarts in a pitcher.

so todd to AA? yay for that

Apparently Luhnow has said Rasmus isn’t getting any pitches to hit because everyone knows he’s a top prospect. So i guess that means he’s pressing and swinging at bad pitches. Anyone who has been to mroe than the one Memphis game i’ve been to concur with that report?