5/6/08 Daily Farm Report
Jeff Luhnow was on Bernie Miklasz’s radio show, and highlights are posted here. A little sneak preview: Luhnow also was nice enough to agree to do some Q and A with me concerning some prospects and the upcoming draft, so be on the lookout for that later this week or so.
All sorts of draft stuff coming today: John Sickels ranks the top college hitters. Matt Blood of BA weighs Buster Posey against Gordon Beckham, two players Cardinal fans can forget about getting. Taj Adib, who blogs about the team that picks just before St. Louis, identifies several of the top players at each position, and he’s holding out hope for Kyle Skipworth or Tanner Scheppers. Brett Wallace is blogging about what it is like to be a draft prospect. And Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes that unlike last year when there was a clear cut no brainer at #1, that’s not the case this year. Some scouting directors are less then thrilled with this year’s crop and I have to say I’m feeling the same way. I just don’t see a monster prospect falling into the Cardinals lap, not at 13.
“You had Price No. 1 last year, you don’t have any of those this year,” one scouting director said. “That’s obviously the drop off. [The Draft class] is pretty good. it’s not phenomenal, but it’s pretty good. I think there’s some depth. I’m not googly-eyed over this Draft.”
Do you like good pitching? If the answer is yes, look away now. The farm was outscored 34-12 last night, thanks to some rather horrid pitching last night. Springfield made up for 7 of the 12 runs.
- Blake Hawksworth continues to royally smell. It took him 107 pitches to get through 4.2 innings. He allowed 3 runs, 2 earned on 8 hits and 3 walks, striking out 3.
- The normally dependable Mark Worrell allowed 5 runs (only 1 earned) on 4 hits and a walk, striking out 1.
- Jason Motte threw 2 scoreless innings, allowing a couple of hits and striking out 1.
- Nick Stavinoha is hitting .350. He hit 1 for 4 with a HR. Yes, power Nick. That’s what I want to see from you.
- Brian Barden doubled, tripled and had a throwing error.
- Cody Haerther went 2 for 4. He’s now hitting .322 in 59 at bats, but with few walks and no homers.
- Josh Phelps went 2 for 4.
- D’Angelo Jimenez had 2 errors.
- Shane Robinson went 3 for 4 with a triple, a steal and 3 runs scored.
- Jon Jay went 2 for 3 with a double and 3 RBI. He’s upped his line to .339/.398/.500.
- Allen Craig went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles. After a slow April in which he posted a .685 OPS, Craig has a 1.192 OPS so far in May.
- Jose Martinez doubled.
- Adam Daniels lasted 4.1 innings in his 3rd start since coming off the DL, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks, and a HBP. He struck out no one.
- Bob Zimmerman, Zach Zuercher, Marco Gonzalez and Luke Gregerson were all not scored upon. Gregerson struck out 1 in his perfect inning, picking up his 6th save.
- I’m not sure what is going on with my own personal cheeseball Kenny Maiques. In 2/3rds of an inning, Maiques was charged with 5 earned runs, hitting two batters, walking 2 batters and allowing a base clearing triple. In 12.1 innings this year, Maiques has walked 20, hit 6 batters, thrown 5 wild pitches and allowed 10 earned runs. He walked a little less then 10% of the batters he faced last season.
- Maiques wasn’t helped by Brandon Garner, who in his third of an inning allowed 2 of his inherited runners to cross. He was charged with 1 ER on 2 hits.
- Cult favorite David Kopp didn’t quite have his A game, but he wasn’t helped by his defense either. Over 3.2 innings, he allowed a couple of runs (1 earned) on 4 hits, 2 walks and had 3 K’s. He had a nifty groundout to flyout ratio of 7-1. He was betrayed by an error by Daniel Descalso and Jon Mikrut allowing one of his two inherited runners to score.
- Steve Hill was doing the catching, going 1 for 2 with 2 BB. He allowed a couple of steals, one against the swift and toolsy Drew Stubbs.
- Donovan Solano went 2 for 4 with an error.
- Thomas Pham went 2 for 3 and was picked off at 1st.
- Lone highlight: Luis De La Cruz goes yard on his 19th birthday.
- Domnit Bolivar and Matt Arburr both doubled.
- Pete Kozma had the day off.
- Blake King allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk over 4 innings, striking out 2. 4 XBH allowed.
- Charles Fick made his A ball debut. He allowed 3 runs (2 earned) over 3 innings, striking out 4.
- Cardoza Tucker allowed 4 runs in 2/3rds of an inning.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
kopp was also betrayed by mikrut who allowed the earned run to score after kopp had been pulled.
as for the draft, the cardinals have the bad luck of having the 13th pick in a 10 or 11 player draft. now maybe we will get lucky and one of those guys will fall b/c a team in the top 12 falls in love with someone that isn’t a concensus top player, but we won’t know that until draft day. i think right now the favorite for the 13th pick is zach putnam. he is a bit of a reach at that spot, but can you really complain? really, i can see any argument for about 15 guys being called the best player available at that spot. other guys to consider are christian friedrich and the two local kids jake odorizzi and tim melville.
Kozma wasn’t much of a 1b coach tonight. No shoulder rubs, didn’t pick up anybody’s shin guard and Chambers got picked off first. I’m not real happy about this.
King’s write-up in BA’s Prospect Handbook is 100% accurate. Maybe Goold should’ve added that King’s pretty stocky.
Crap. Descalso hurt Kopp? Well who do I scapegoat now? I need a player whom I didn’t pick to win any awards do the screwing up, not you, Daniel!
That line for Maiques this year is positively- dare I say it?- Ankielian. Wow.
Woo baby, those Quad Cities batting averages are alarming. Yikes.
Hawksworth has another ugly night tonight. Uh, move him to the bullpen? Please? Anyone in the Cardinals organization!? ANYTHING BUT STARTING!!
FGC, what is your take on Odorizzi? He’s from Highland, IL which is only 25 miles or so from me. Nice to see a southern IL kid get some draft buzz.
What’s up w/ Stavinoha? I don’t hear him mentioned much, but the stats looks promising. Any chance he can stick as a MLB 4th/5th OF?
Redbirdavenger says, “Woo baby, those Quad Cities batting averages are alarming. Yikes.” He’s spot on, which begs the question, Where are Jonathan Edwards and Travis Mitchell? Given the output - or lack thereof - we’ve seen from the QC outfielders, I’m surprised this pair hasn’t been tried.
Nobody has talked about this much, so I thought I would bring it up. I don’t comment a lot, but I read this site daily.
I watched the big club play last night, and I seem to be picking up on a theme. Our former Future Redbirds are doing great! I have gone back and looked at their stats through the organization and compared them to their ML stats, and they are alarmingly similar.
What is the explanation? Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker, and Barton are all hitting at or above their minor league levels. Does this mean that the expected drop-off from AAA to the majors really is a myth? Is it a mirage of small sample size misleading me?
I know Barton is the exception, coming from the Indians organization, but it seems to me that every hitter we promote from Memphis just continues to hit at that same level upon their promotion. J-Rod did it. Uncle Rico never got the AB’s to see if he could. Does this effect what we should project a Memphis player’s MLE to be? Has anyone else noticed this phenomenon?
It looks like time to cut bait on Hawksworth. What might have been …
As for Maiques, sudden loss of control is a red flag for arm trouble. He’s promising enough that spending some organization money to get him carefully diagnosed might not be a bad thing. If he’s developing a bad wing, deal with it now, not later.
CRAP! I just made the most insightful post in my illustrious career here at FR, and it’s not showing up!
grant, he’s really good, and he has likely established himself as a first round pick. i don’t know if he is worth the 13th overall pick, but if the cardinals want him they are probably going to have to take him there. he has a nice projectable frame, and he is already touching 95 and 96 with his fastball. he also has 2 breaking balls and a change which is pretty impressive for a high school pitcher. when you add all that with a pretty good delivery and solid command you have a very good prospect.
When does Sugar Shane get the call to Memphis? Remember when outfielders were a weak part in our system? Yeesh.
I heard Todd has been promoted to AA…anyone have any info on that?
Apparently Luhnow has said Rasmus isn’t getting any pitches to hit because everyone knows he’s a top prospect. So i guess that means he’s pressing and swinging at bad pitches. Anyone who has been to mroe than the one Memphis game i’ve been to concur with that report?
ok so i read stl sports insider before i clicked on the link at the top of this report…so i feel dumb now
so todd to AA? yay for that
I saw Odorizzi play the last time I ws home visiting my folks. I sat behind a couple scouts with guns and saw 92-94 quite a bit, I didn’t seea ton of movement on it though. He didn’t throw his change that much but it was early in high school season and frankly he didn’t need it. The scouts in question were thinking 3rd-4th round at the time, but his performance since has obviously impressed. I don’t know–I would have to see him a couple more times but I would say his ceiling is supplental 1st round. A very live arm with good arm action that would suggest to developing good secondary pitches. I think his fastball could be a little questionable right now but again it is not a stretch to see it develop into a major league quality.
My mom actually has him in class and really doubts that college is much of a worry, he is leaning towards Louisville though. That my mom has him in calss and says that college is not a worry bothers me, a lot of rejects in her classes. I want some smarts in a pitcher.
yeah, i wouldn’t take him before 39, but you never know.
what would everyone think of grabbing a polished college pitcher like christian friedrich at 13 and then going for the upside high schooler in odorizzi at 39?
burt,
A lot of people are starting to view Stavinoha as the next John Gall - although he may have even less power.
The guy can absolutely hit, but he’s never hit more than 15 HRs in a season, and he could be dominating AAA now because it’s his second season there.
People talk a lot about his age and say ‘he’s no longer a prospect,’ but he JUST turned 26, so that seems mildly ludicrous to me. Especially when we’re raving about Barton (26) and Ludwick (who’s just reaching his potential at 30).
Stavvy’s going to have a big year - I think we’ll see career highs in HRs and RBIs - so I hope the big club either trades him to make room for Jay or Robinson at Memphis, or finally gives him his shot in September. I think he’d be a very serviceable 4th/5th guy.
It was funny, I was literally talking with my mom last night about how he was doing. She was commenting that the scouts have definetly increased (30ish a game) and it had been hard to get seats in the stands. My dad had said that he was still hearing 3rd round for him at the games. I was there for the first couple games of Highland’s season and there was only three scouts (one with a Phillies hat), so the interest has defintely increases. That said there have been a couple pro-teams watching him for quite a while and it wouldn’t suprise me to see him go to one of the teams that have seen him more than the rest a round high.
I am not convinced that Odorizzi is good value at 39, but the idea of taking projectable upside high school pitchers in the second and third rounds has always appealed to me. I haven’t looked it up, but my instinct says that a lot of all-star pitchers came to the big leagues through that route. If Odorizzi is still available at our second round pick then I would consider him.
Like I have said though, Luhnow seems to have his shit together–I have faith in his decisions…
re: Stavinoha
There’s a few things working against him right now. 1) He’s probably behind Mather on the depth chart since he doesn’t offer as much power or any other significantly different skillset. 2) He’s repeating at Memphis as a 26 year old — there’s going to be a perceived judgement there regardless of true ability. 3) He hasn’t really changed his approach from last season to this one. A few less strikeouts, some more power but the results are worlds better than what we saw last season. He’s getting lucky in terms of production and no one should expect him to continue to hit .350.
I think his perfect world scenario is similar to Mather’s. A 4th outfielder with a little pop but limited defensively. Think .280/.320/.430 at Stavinoha’s peak. Not something to get terribly excited about and not someone demonstrably better than other corner outfield prospects in the system.
Mike -
Decided to examine HS pitchers taken in the second rd. the last few years (exempting ‘07; seems to soon to analyze):
2006:
Cory Rasmus (did not play ‘07 - surgery);
Steven Evarts (1.50 ERA, dominating in A ball so far this year);
Caleb Clay (2.14 in low A last season; missing ‘08?).
2005:
Chaz Roe (4.33, 170 IP in A last year);
Ryan Tucker (3.52, 140 IP for ‘07; 0.89 in 40 IP at AA for ‘0
Trevor Bell (4.14, 115 IP - A ball, ‘07; 4.66 in 29 IP, high-A ‘0
Beau Jones (still hasn’t moved past high-A - 5.30 in ‘0
Michael Bowden (30 IP, 3.26 in AA this year)
From 2000 to 2004, 9 of 27 made the majors, few solidly contributing:
2004 (1 of 4):
Yovani Gallardo (well, we all know)
2003 (1 of 3):
Jo-Jo Reyes (has dominated the minors; looks ready to legimitately contribute to the Braves)
2002 (2 of 6):
Micah Owings (solid contributor for D-Backs now)
Jon Lester (Red Sox for a couple years now)
2001 (3 of 11):
Brandon League (struggling for Blue Jays)
Matt Chico (made majors in ‘07; mediocre for Nats)
J.P. Howell (MLB in ‘05; finally contributing to Rays this year)
2000 (3 of 7)
Joel Hanrahan (MLB in ‘07; struggling for Nats)
J.D. Durbin (brief MLB appearances; struggling in minors)
Manny Delcarmen (strong bullpen arm for Red Sox in ‘07; having rough ‘08 so far)
Moral of the story seems to be that none of these guys look to be special, and few ascended quickly - most of their college counterparts have had much stronger success.
Interesting, nonetheless.
Er, misspoke there - Gallardo will be special, and maybe one of Reyes/Owings/Lester/Delcarmen.
Eckstreem, I enjoyed your post and have noticed the same thing myself — guys like Duncan and Ryan have done better in the bigs than their MiLB numbers would suggest.
I’d guess the biggest reason is park and league factors. A lot of the college guys we draft start off in the NY-Penn League, which is a hideous place to hit. The MWL seems to have evolved into more of a pitcher’s league the past several years, and the FSL has always been pitcher-friendly.
Our guys get to play in a good park and good league for hitting at AA, but then Memphis is another place where offensive numbers are depressed (even though the PCL is overall a good league for hitters).
Another possible explanation: A lot of these guys are being platooned and otherwise worked into the lineup when they have the greatest advantage. If you’re Chris Duncan and rarely hit against lefties in MLB, you’re probably going to have better overall numbers than you did when you had to face lefties in the minors.