Future Redbirds

A trio of Springfield hitters headline this week’s edition of 3 Up, 3 Down:

THREE UP

Shane Robinson: When the Cardinals made Shane Robinson their 5th round pick of the 2006 draft, it was based chiefly on performance. Robinson had a lifetime .357 batting average at Florida State, including a sophomore year in which he hit .427/.532/.605 with 49 steals. With that, he earned “Collegiate Baseball’s National Player of the Year” award. The diminutive Robinson is not a tools-laden prospect. He’s much more of an Eckstein-like player whose smarts and hustle allow his tools to play up a notch or three. It’s taken him a while to adjust to pro-ball, and he spent much of the 2007 season on the DL with a broken foot. His overall minor league line going into the season was an unimpressive .268/.335/.338. He hit well in winter ball in Nicaragua this winter, and made the Springfield team as their 4th OF. Right now “Sugar Shane” has hit into some playing time, putting up an astonishing .423/.463/.606 line in 71 at bats. His .466 BABIP is impossibly unsustainable, but he’s lacing liners all over the place, at a rate of 28% of his BIP. Living on contact, he doesn’t walk often, but he doesn’t strike out often, either. Cardinal fans love their scrappers, and Robinson fits that mold to a tee. Players of his ilk aren’t generally my cup of tea, but if he keeps hitting, it’s easy to envision him as the team’s 4th or 5th OF, and a favorite among the Busch III faithful.

Bryan Anderson: Another Springfielder on fire is Anderson. [update 12:47 PM, 4/29: Anderson appears to have been promoted to AAA. He is on the official Memphis Redbirds website's roster. 3:20 PM Confirmed by K Booher.] In his last 45 at bats he’s hit .422 with 6 extra base hits and 10 RBI. He already has 2 HR this season; he hit 3 in all of 2006. Like his teammate Robinson, he’s hitting line drives at an alarming rate-24%. What may be most encouraging is he’s allowed just 2 passed balls in 16 games; at that rate he’ll allow 12 for the season. That would be an improvement from 15 last year and 17 the previous season before that. Maybe I’m trying to see more good then what is actually there, but I’m thinking the Matheny factor is kicking in.  After allowing a lot of steals last season, Anderson is getting a lot of runners attempting to pick his pockets.  But this time, they’re finding it’s not worth it.  On 34 tries, 14 have been caught (41% CS), up from 28% last season. Multifaceted improvement. I like it!

Jon Jay: Heeeee’s baaaack! After hitting .342 in his debut at the QC, Jay never was able to get anything going due to dealing with injury issues galore last season. But now, after a sluggish start, Jay’s hitting .326/.394/.517. He’s come on very strong lately, going 18-for-41 with 4 walks and has 5 extra base hits in his last 10 games. His eye has been good, with 9 walks to 10 K’s, and he’s showing more power then he has before. There’s some Hammons magic at work, with an ISO of .257 at home/.155 away. While with Anderson and Robinson you can point to some luckiness due to their inflated BABIPs, Jay’s is .303. Jay doesn’t have to have a lot of luck to get on a hot streak, he’s just a good hitter when healthy.

THREE DOWN

Blake Hawksworth’s prospect expiration date is nearing. Once the top prospect in the system, he battled back from labrum surgery to post a respectable 2006 season, one that put him back on the prospect map. His 2007 campaign in AAA wasn’t great, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt by figuring fatigue, bad luck, and a bad defense all had a part to play. Now repeating AAA at age 25, he’s missing more bats then he has in a long, long while, fanning 25 in 24 innings. On the others side of the coin, he’s also been awfully hittable, allowing 30–10 of which came in his last big stinker of a game. It was one really, really bad day out that’s marred what may be a decent line, and so I’m not ready to give up on the Hawk yet. I’m encouraged by the strikeouts, but wary of the 9 doubles and 4 HR he’s permitted.

Brad Furnish: On the surface, Brad’s 3.43 ERA looks pretty decent, but I’m not really impressed by the lack of swings-and-misses thus far. His K/PA % is just 14.9%, and he’s allowed 3 HR in 6 games in a highly homer suppressive park. He’s benefited by a .245 BABIP and a strand rate of 80%, so his 5.05 fielding independent ERA tells the real story. He’s coming off some issues with his elbow, so it could be just a matter of getting it together.

Tony Cruz: The JUCO product burst upon the scene last season, receiving three promotions in just a short time. Anyone that moves so quickly up the ladder bears watching, as the organization must’ve be seeing something worthwhile. Now splitting time between catching and playing 3B, “don’t call me Arnoldi” Cruz has struggled at the plate at Palm Beach, hitting just .237/.282/.340 in 97 at bats. I thought that catching would only increase his value, but the learning of a new position could be a proving as a distraction to Cruz. I’m still all for the experiment, so here’s hoping he gets comfortable soon.

Getting a mention as another “not hot”: Allen Craig, with just a .135 ISO so far. I thought Hammons would turn him into a beast. He’s on the verge of being one of the three down next time, and probably should have been. His 4-for-4 game with a double and a HR saved him, for now.