Future Redbirds

I complained about the Kozma-at-18 pick the other night in a DFR, but Pete has been so good thus far this season that he deserves a look. (As an aside, I’m sure once this year’s draft comes, I’ll stop complaining about Kozma-at-18 since I’ll have other fodder.) I haven’t opened up his numbers yet because I wanted to be able to write this intro to advise you that I’m going into this unbiased. I have no idea if the peripherals will support his tremendous batting line or not, but I’m not on a witch hunt.

(Azru opens numbers in firstinning.com)

Hmmm, something of a mixed bag. Let’s start with the bad and end on a positive note.

That dreaded BABIP is showing that Kozma has been quite lucky to date. He has a .377 BABIP while hitting 46% groundballs and 17% linedrives. That’s a lot of luck. Given those numbers, some rough math would put his expected BABIP closer to .300 or perhaps a little higher since he’s in low-A (worse defenders). The good news is that he’s elevating the ball more this season than last. In 2006, we were seeing about half his contact as groundballs and 15% as linedrives, so there’s progress being made. If we take away 5 singles (to correct for the lucky BABIP) his average falls from .328 to .283, which is still very respectable.

One interesting, and largely meaningless stat given the sample size, is his home-road split. At John O’Donnell Stadium, Kozma hits .294/.359/.412, which isn’t surprising as that stadium is a pitchers park. On the road he hits like a man possessed for .364/.475/.606. Again, don’t read too much into this yet but it’s something to keep an eye on.

The good news is that Kozma is showing good power for a SS. With an ISO of .179, that’s more than enough to keep hitters honest. He’s an average or better runner so he’s going to leg out some doubles with the gap-power. I still don’t think we’ll ever see more than a handful of HRs a year but he can still succeed without hitting for power as a SS (although not as a 3B, so I hope they stop playing him there). Especially if he keeps walking at a 12-13% clip.

I’ve noted before that Jarrett Hoffpauir’s main skillset (and the one that likely makes him a better hitter than Aaron Miles or Adam Kennedy) is his plate discipline which is routinely in the 11-13% range. Hoffpauir is makes a little more contact than Kozma who strikes out in over 10% of his appearances but he’s by no means struggling in that area. The point is that the plate discipline skillset can help to offset the lack of raw power. Having a good batting eye and a plan at the plate helps prevent players from becoming hacktastic, which is important when you don’t hit the ball out of the park often. Power hitters have the high strikeout luxury that other players simply can’t afford to enjoy. Without seeing Kozma firsthand, I don’t really know what his approach at the plate is, but it’s something I’ll be looking for when I visit the QC for some games.

When it’s all said and done, even with a little luck, Kozma is more than holding his own this year and he’s showing some significant and important improvements. He’s a year older than most HS draftees having turned 20 on April 11th, but he’s showing some advanced hitting skills to go along with (reports) of very good defensive instincts and great baseball character. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Palm Beach later this year.

(All numbers from First Inning include games through April 23rd.)