This really isn’t all that easy and I could see the draft going in so many different directions. I tried to factor a few things here, notably Scott Boras and what teams are willing to spend. I also tried to look at team’s particular drafting patterns, whether they like HS players or college players, hitters or pitchers in the first round. In Pittsburgh’s case, I looked at Cleveland’s habits to get an idea of what Neal Huntington might do. In the end I could be way off base here, but in the name of fun, here goes nothing—
1. TB - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin (GA) HS- A high school SS with 5 tools at a scarce position. Sign the Rays up.
2. PIT - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia- Boras plays a factor here, so rather then Alvarez the Buccos settle for (arguably) the 2nd best college hitter in the draft. (Admittedly, I could be way off here.)
3. KC - Buster Posey, C, Florida State- It’s easy to see the Royals go for the local product Aaron Crow here, but I think the Royals would prefer to have someone who can help their lineup in the next couple of years.
4. BAL- Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt- Baltimore has shown a willingness to deal with Boras last year when they signed Weiters. The Pedro stops here.
5. SF - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego- San Fran looks to possess a monopoly of terrific young arms.
6. FLA - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina- The Fish will like this slugging switch-hitter to help drive home Hanley for years to come.
7. CIN - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri- Picture, if you will, a rotation of Harang, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Crow. That is scary. Downright scary.
8. CWS- Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State- The ChiSox do love college pitchers-Lance Broadway, Kyle McCulloch, Aaron Poreda. Scheppers will be the best of the bunch.
9. WAS - Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, (CA) - Best high school player remaining on the board not named Eric Hosmer. Club seems to be already committed to Chris Marrero at 1B.
10. HOU - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane- A pitcher named Shooter- in Minute Maid - who gets a lot of strikeouts. Queue the annoying sound effects!
11. TEX - Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, (FLA)- The Boras slide stops in Texas, I suppose.
12. OAK- Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)- Oakland goes back to OBP in the 1st round.
13. St. Louis Cardinals- DOOR # 1: Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS, (MO)- After missing out on Phil Hughes in 2004, they take Phil Hughes-lite in 2008. After a rough start, reportedly his stuff has returned. Drafting Melville would come as a bit of a surprise, considering the Cardinals haven’t taken a HS pitcher in the first round since Brian Barber went 22nd overall in 1991, but I could see it happening.
DOOR # 2: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky. If they stick with the long-standing tradition of a drafting college pitchers, then Colonel Big Hook is their man.
DOOR # 3: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL). Jemile may not have the overall talent his brother has, but he should be less tantalizing, and could bring the Cards some much needed consistency at the keystone.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
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I can definitly see the aaron crow pick by the reds now that jocketty has taken over the gm post.
that is definitely out of the box at the top, but i can see all of those picks happening. i actually like the posey to the royals pick. i hadn’t thought of it before, but that could make a lot of sense. i have those exact same picks at 9-12.
jawac, why do you definitely see the crow pick now that jocketty is the gm? crow is a great talent, but he is also a boras client and jocketty didn’t do so great with high bonus demands last year.
Crow is a Boras client? I may need to revise that list. OTOH, Cincy did spend quite a bit on their most recent international signing (i forget his name, but he’s supposed to have 80 power potential or something outrageous like that) Maybe it’s a signal that Cincy is finally committed to winning.
And Jocketty isn’t the GM. Puppet master, maybe, if you like conspiracies and whatnot.
No, Jocketty is the GM as of today. Krivsky is out.
i don’t know if he is for sure, but there have been rumors. i have heard he is with the hendricks brothers, but i have also heard he is with boras. i don’t know what the truth is right now. either way you are looking at a hefty bonus. even if he isn’t with boras, the hendricks brothers were kyle russell’s reps last year and jocketty didn’t exactly have a good time with them. they were also pete kozma’s reps and he held out quite a long time for a guy that signed for slot.
Wow! That was fast. I’m not sure I like the ethical situation behind all that, coming in under the guise of a “special adviser”, waiting in the weeds until Krivsky is fired. I thought he said he didn’t want to be the GM? Jocketty seems even more cut throat to me now then before.
well erik, i liked the change up, but it sounds like that might not be the case this year
emppi (Ankeny IA): What teams will cling to the “slotting system” and what clubs will change direction to go over-slot besides the Mets? Will Detroit have anyone tasty drop to them again this year even close to Porcello or has that door closed on them at #21? Thank you.
Kevin Goldstein: Right now, things are lining up for fewer teams to play by the rules, which means fewer players dropping. I think we actually might be lining up for the top four talents to go in the first four picks. How weird is that?
My first choice would be Melville, but Weeks sounds pretty good also.
A MIF of Kozma and Weeks wouldn’t be too shabby.
i don’t have a favorite anymore. i liked scheppers and martinez at the beginning, but scheppers went up and martinez went down. then i liked gordon beckham, but he too shot out of our range. i then thought melville was sliding to our range (which he is), but after seeing him live i don’t think he is worth the 13th pick right now.
i like weeks, but we have 2nd basemen and he is a little bit of a stretch at this point. i used to like friedrich, but his fastball command concerns me and there are starting to be some people that say his curve isn’t as good as everyone thought.
at this point i have no clue who i would take.
fgc, I know what you mean. it seems like it’s not a great year to be #13. After the Top 10, I don’t get really excited about anyone.
I hadn’t heard that Crow may be signing with Boras. If that is the case I retract my statement.
But as far as not taking players due to signability, you pointed out that it hasn’t really stopped Jocketty from making the picks, just ultimately signing them.
Given the (solid) choices of P’s Mortensen and Kopp in 2007, I would much prefer Weeks (or Friedrich) over Melville.
Melville’s got two strikes against him in my book…
1. He’s a HS pitcher.
2. His mechanics are problematic.
So Chris, without giving us more info then you are allowed, who in the draft do you like?
I like the Posey to Kansas City prediction. It makes sense especially if Posey keeps crushing the ball and playing solid defense.
I think the White Sox are the last team that might have Tanner Scheppers at #1 on their list before the Cardinals. If Buster Posey falls to them, though, he might jump to the top of their list as they could use a good hitter more than they need a pitcher although their first round pitchers haven’t been so great.
-I think the Nationals go with a high school player and probably won’t want to pay Hosmer his money. Skipworth would be a great addition to their system. I don’t see them going for pitchers after adding Detwiler, McGeary, Smoker and Zimmerman last year plus Burgess is struggling this year.
-Houston will probably go with a fast moving college player. Scheppers probably fits into this group, so I’m worried about the Stros, but maybe Shooter Hunt starts throwing more strikes and improves his stock a lot? Maybe Houston thinks Weeks could be the next Biggio?
-I think Texas will go with Hosmer as well. Many are saying he could be the next Mark Teixeira so that sounds like a good fit. Plus they just loaded up on pitching last year. If they don’t want to pay a lot of money, though, Alonso could be their guy.
-If Alonso doesn’t go to Texas, he will probably be Oakland’s pick. Slot sign, high OBP = perfect fit. I could see Scheppers being #2 on their list, though. Oakland hasn’t had a chance at a good hard throwing college righty lately. Instead they have been taking guys like Simmons, Windsor, Banwart.
Right now I’m just hoping Tanner Scheppers falls to the Cardinals if Posey and Beckham don’t.
wow, chris i know you don’t like his mechanics, but do you knock down every high school pitcher just b/c they are a high school pitcher? that seems like a bad way of going about things.
I too have seen Melville live, and I don’t love him. He’s got a lot of ability, but I think there are 13 players I’d rather have.
Of course I’d rather have Yonder Alonso, but I’m not sure if the Cards would be that high on him due to position even if he is there. I’ve always said I think he can play LF though.
Jemile Weeks is something to see in person, he has a lot of personality to go with his tools. I like him alot, but we have second basemen.
Not sure who I “hope” we pick yet, but I’d like a run producer and a big arm with our first two picks.
“wow, chris i know you don’t like his mechanics, but do you knock down every high school pitcher just b/c they are a high school pitcher? that seems like a bad way of going about things.”
I’m just playing the percentages.
On average college pitchers are a better bet than are HS pitchers because on average college pitchers face fiercer, and deeper, competition and have to learn how to actually pitch (e.g. deception, movement, and location) as a result. Mere throwers (e.g. raw velocity) can be very successful in HS, so their stats don’t always hold up in the pros.
Of course, there are exceptions like Maddux.
and exceptions such as nearly every college pitcher the cardinals have drafted in the first round in the last decade.
Is everyone still on the Zach Putnam bandwagon at #39?
depends on who else is there, but i wouldn’t mind taking putnam at 39. he is a guy with a good sinker and 3 other pitches who has pretty good control. i know this doesn’t matter, but he can also swing it and could be a micah owings type player.
I’m on the Putnam at 39 train; think he would be a nice fit here.
I still like Melville at 13. He’s far from the first high school pitcher to have a rough senior season, nor will he be the last. I still think the talent there is too good to pass up.
rb, i wouldn’t want melville and putnam. i am really hoping they take a bat with at least one of those picks.
[...] at Future Redbirds, author Erik Manning is attempting the Sisyphean task of a mock draft, NFL-style. He’s got the Cardinals taking … well, let him tell [...]
Does anyone happen to know the exact dates of the June draft? I can’t seem to find them anywhere.
i believe it is thursday june 5th and friday june 6th
It is the 5th and 6th. It’s a Thursday and Friday. I took them off, as it’s also my birthday so I figured “why not?” I plan on liveblogging day one, probably day 2 as well.
Great! I was afraid it would be on June 9-10, and I’ll be out of the country then.
FGC—a bat, huh? what do you think about Dennis Raben?
If the Birds draft Weeks I will be disappointed again. It’s time to make a splash. After missing out on Joba, Hughes, and Porcello, it’s time to make a splash.
raben has a ton of power, but will he ever hit for average? there is no way i would take him at 13, but if he lasts to 39 i would think about it.
DV, A splash is nice but the point is there may not a super splashy player available at #13. There certainly isn’t a Joba or a Porcello going to be available, as far as I can tell.
The Cards won’t pass on Melville