Comments on: Walking the line

By: southeast redbird

southeast redbird — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 21:48:36 +0000

Fewgoodcards,
Got your point, one thing I noticed in college that with having to rely on more CB’s, sliders missing the zone happens more often, especailly when the pitchers rely more on those pitches because they do not trust the FB or the coach just wants more of the off speed stuff.

By: siddfynch

siddfynch — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:48:48 +0000

Interesting stuff.

It would also be interesting to place this quantitative assessment side-by-side with a qualitative one one each guy (the original grade on each guy’s control and command). Pairing those two would probably help control for things like differences among leagues and stats that can’t compare, helping address the real question “do the Cards tend to downgrade control when they draft guys?”

By: lassie01

lassie01 — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 03:11:05 +0000

Southeast,

That’s a great point. I catch a lot of Arkansas games and sometimes I’m shocked at just how bad the umpiring is even in a conference like the SEC.

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 02:34:18 +0000

i see, but i think that was our point. the pitchers that make it are the ones that combine good stuff with good control, but the cardinals have drafted way too many guys that walk too many batters at the college level. last year it seemed like that began to change, but we won’t know for a couple more years if they have started to pay more attention to a pitcher’s control.

By: southeast redbird

southeast redbird — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 01:01:26 +0000

fewgood cards,
I meant success stories as they have been pix that have made it (except for Price which if he is healthy might get clled up this year).

By: cardsfan1

cardsfan1 — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:54:38 +0000

Ottavino actually had a 3.17 BB/9 his junior year. The stats you gave are from his sophmore and freshman year. His senior year he also had and 11.59 k/9 his senior year.
Mortensen’s sophmore year he had a 4.3, and I can’t get to his freshman year statistics. Him and Ottavino basically had the same numbers, so I don’t see where there was a lesson learned.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:28:34 +0000

The numbers don´t mean much w/o context. How did these walk rates compare to those of high draft picks of other teams?

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:23:25 +0000

david price only walked 31 in 133.1 innings last year. andrew miller also walked less than 3 per 9. i wouldn’t consider them success stories of pitchers that didn’t have very good control b/c they both had pretty good control.

By: southeast redbird

southeast redbird — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 22:22:59 +0000

I also forgot to mention mechanics.

By: southeast redbird

southeast redbird — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 22:21:32 +0000

It’s very hard for a college pitcher to control walks in the game. I have seen so many umpires that don’t belong umpiring because they squeeze the zone unnecessarily. Plus many college pitchers increase in velocity during their college years (because they have matured more and because high velo gets you a higher draft pick) and the higher the velocity the harder the control.
Many HS pitchers might have better walk ratios because the zone is wider. Then they get to pro ball and have difficulty with the tighter zone. In either case, hitting batters is most likely the more important factor that may be considered.
However there are exceptions, drafting a pitcher who has no control, hits batters but very high velocity can blow up in your face, example the pitcher from Georgia Tech a few years taken in the first round. But then you have success stories like Justin Verlander and Andrew Miller and hopefully David Price. Also, a pitcher that has pin point control and suddenly has issues, their number of innings and pitches thrown per game should be a consideration as an injury may be lurking.
Drafting any pitcher is very difficult and all pitchers are different. I would think that teams should look for many tools, velocity, projectibility ,number of pitches they throw for strikes, athleticism and durability as well as considering how much or how little time they put in.

Velocity makes tongues wag, especially from a HS pitcher, it trumps control.