I wanted to check the theory on how indifferent the Cardinals have been towards walks when it comes to their early round draft picks, chiefly college pitchers. I find puzzling as to why the any team would take numerous chances with college players with wobbly control. If you’re gonna gamble on upside, you would think that would be on a few more high school pitchers, as presumably they are more impressionable and pliable. You’d also have to think it would be more challenging to attempt to correct the flaws of a more established college pitcher that’s already enjoyed a measure of success rather then an 17 or 18 year old kid. It seems like a method to stockpile the minors with future relievers, not starters. Anyway, here are the BB/9 numbers for players taken in Luhnow drafts. The #’s are their final college season. Yes, 2004 is included, although Luhnow wasn’t fully in charge of the draft at that time, his stamp is indelibly on it:
2004
Chris Lambert 4.29
Eric Haberer 3.75
Donnie Smith 2.61 (since released)
2005
Mark McCormick 5.27
Nick Webber 2.55 (in relief)
Mitch Boggs 3.04 (in relief)
Adam Ottavino 4.22, over 5.00 previous season.
Chris Perez 4.78 (relief)
Brad Furnish 4.53
Gary Daley 4.99
Eddie Degerman 3.99
2007
Clayton Mortensen 3.17
David Kopp 2.62
Jesse Todd 2.51
Thomas Eager 3.57
After last year’s draft, lesson learned. Mort, Kopp and Todd all had excellent control in college. What I hope this means is if…big if…the Cards have a choice between Shooter Hunt and Tanner Scheppers, they go with Scheppers. I have no issues on the preference of college pitchers over high school pitchers in the early rounds. I just think I’d more often thennot take the pitcher with better control who’s a little lighter on stuff then vice versa.
Filed under: Adam Ottavino, Chris Lambert, Chris Perez, Clayton Mortensen, David Kopp, Donnie Smith, Eric Haberer, Gary Daley, Jess Todd, Nick Webber, Thomas Eager
erik
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fewgoodcards
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I tend to look at their college career and maybe that is unfair b/c a lot can change from your Freshman to Soph to Jr year in school.
It is nice to see them start go away from it a bit…we will see this year if they are starting a trend or if last year was just a blip.
Good stuff though..thanks for doing the legwork!
It’s very hard for a college pitcher to control walks in the game. I have seen so many umpires that don’t belong umpiring because they squeeze the zone unnecessarily. Plus many college pitchers increase in velocity during their college years (because they have matured more and because high velo gets you a higher draft pick) and the higher the velocity the harder the control.
Many HS pitchers might have better walk ratios because the zone is wider. Then they get to pro ball and have difficulty with the tighter zone. In either case, hitting batters is most likely the more important factor that may be considered.
However there are exceptions, drafting a pitcher who has no control, hits batters but very high velocity can blow up in your face, example the pitcher from Georgia Tech a few years taken in the first round. But then you have success stories like Justin Verlander and Andrew Miller and hopefully David Price. Also, a pitcher that has pin point control and suddenly has issues, their number of innings and pitches thrown per game should be a consideration as an injury may be lurking.
Drafting any pitcher is very difficult and all pitchers are different. I would think that teams should look for many tools, velocity, projectibility ,number of pitches they throw for strikes, athleticism and durability as well as considering how much or how little time they put in.
Velocity makes tongues wag, especially from a HS pitcher, it trumps control.
I also forgot to mention mechanics.
david price only walked 31 in 133.1 innings last year. andrew miller also walked less than 3 per 9. i wouldn’t consider them success stories of pitchers that didn’t have very good control b/c they both had pretty good control.
The numbers don´t mean much w/o context. How did these walk rates compare to those of high draft picks of other teams?
Ottavino actually had a 3.17 BB/9 his junior year. The stats you gave are from his sophmore and freshman year. His senior year he also had and 11.59 k/9 his senior year.
Mortensen’s sophmore year he had a 4.3, and I can’t get to his freshman year statistics. Him and Ottavino basically had the same numbers, so I don’t see where there was a lesson learned.
fewgood cards,
I meant success stories as they have been pix that have made it (except for Price which if he is healthy might get clled up this year).
i see, but i think that was our point. the pitchers that make it are the ones that combine good stuff with good control, but the cardinals have drafted way too many guys that walk too many batters at the college level. last year it seemed like that began to change, but we won’t know for a couple more years if they have started to pay more attention to a pitcher’s control.
Southeast,
That’s a great point. I catch a lot of Arkansas games and sometimes I’m shocked at just how bad the umpiring is even in a conference like the SEC.
Interesting stuff.
It would also be interesting to place this quantitative assessment side-by-side with a qualitative one one each guy (the original grade on each guy’s control and command). Pairing those two would probably help control for things like differences among leagues and stats that can’t compare, helping address the real question “do the Cards tend to downgrade control when they draft guys?”
Fewgoodcards,
Got your point, one thing I noticed in college that with having to rely on more CB’s, sliders missing the zone happens more often, especailly when the pitchers rely more on those pitches because they do not trust the FB or the coach just wants more of the off speed stuff.