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Daily Farm Report 4/8/08, plus draft stuff

I’m bummed. I was gonna go to the Quad Cities/Cedar Rapids game tonight but because of the Never Ending Winter of the Apocalypse, I’m here at home. We’ve had snow here on the ground since Thanksgiving. Almost all of it’s melted now, but we’ve had the ground briefly recovered by snow twice in April so far and we’re supposed to get more by Friday. A doubleheader is scheduled for tomorrow, but I have a previous engagement. Thursday is supposed to have nasty weather too. I may have to drive to Davenport to check out the players this year, which stinks as it’s a 2 hour drive. I think we’ve had one nice day all year so far. Maybe I should move to Florida, then I could watch the Palm Beach Cardinals in the sweltering heat instead.

BA has updated it’s Top 50 draft prospects, the top 15 shakes out thusly:

  1. Pedro Alvarez
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Aaron Crow
  4. Tim Beckham
  5. Eric Hosmer
  6. Justin Smoak
  7. Buster Posey
  8. Shooter Hunt
  9. Tanner Scheppers
  10. Tim Melville (velocity has been down so far)
  11. Kyle Skipworth
  12. Gordon Beckham
  13. Yonder Alonso
  14. Christian Freidrich
  15. Aaron Hicks

I’m just wondering, but am I the only one who’s not all that impressed with this year’s draft class? I really like the top 8 or 10, but after that it feels kinda “myeh” to me. It just seems odd that the strength of this draft is 1st baseman, IE young guys with “old player skills”. That said, I’m now thinking the Cards may take Hunt if another team doesn’t nab him first. Earlier Picklefork pointed out the amount of college pitchers they take in the first 5 rounds or so that have good stuff, but struggle with control. Hunt fits that bill to a tee. He’s registered 58 K’s in 44.1 innings, while allowing just 15 hits. Batters are hitting a ridiculous .106 against him. But he’s also walked 27 batters and hit 6 batters. If he could iron out some of his mechanics (Brent Strom’s “classic mechanics”, anyone?) he could be fantastic. Saberscouting thinks he could be a #2 starter in the big leagues. If all else, he would be another funky name in the system.

Speaking of Saberscouting, by now you know I’m really digging their new site, but I have a minor bone to pick with them. They just ran their pseudo chat and I’m thinking they may want to check their sources.

3. Grant from Odin, IL
Q: What do you guys think of P.J. Walters? Do you see him continuing his success despite his below-average velocity?
A: (Kiley) Talked to a scout specifically about him today and he’s got the report Cardinals’ fans have probably heard before. Big, athletic guy with high-maintenance mechanics that create some deception in the mid 80’s fastball, but the fringy slider and average change won’t play well at higher levels. That being said, one in a thousand guys like that settle in at the big league level, maybe he’s the one. And if there’s some hope with Walters, it’s that most of these types are fly-ball guys and 99% of them fail at the MLB level, and Walters is an above-average groundball guy, so he may be more unique than most soft-tossing righties.

High maintenance mechanics? I’ve always heard PJ is silky smooth. Average changeup? It’s the best change in the system, by far, with screwball movement. Again, I love their blog but all of that conflicts with everything we’ve heard or read. He also has a blurb on Rasmus, saying he thinks he could hit .290 with 30 bombs but is concerned about the K’s. They won’t put him in Bruce/Upton territory, but I still say the gap between Colby and Bruce ain’t that wide.

On to the games, with a nugget on Daryl Jones from John Vuch:

Memphis 2, N’awlins 3 (10 innings)

  • Joel Pineiro threw 78 pitches on his rehab assignment. He struck out 5 over 6 innings, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. I take it Kelvin Jimenez hasn’t unpacked his bags yet.
  • Brian Barden went 2 for 5 with a double and a strikeout.
  • Colby went 1 for 4 with a walk and a K.
  • Josh Phelps and Nick Stavinoha drove in the two runs, both the 2 out variety. Clutchiriffic.
  • Jarrett Hoffpauir smacked a double. Take a picture, he’s now hitting .462/.563/.615.
  • Freshly promoted Cory Rauschenberger pitched around a walk and couple of hits (including a double to the one, and only Fernando Tatis). He threw 2 scoreless innings.
  • Joe Rogers allowed the losing run in the 10th.

Springfield 2, Midland 6

  • Like the Detroit Tigers, the Springfield Cardinals are just too good to go winless for much longer. Better days have to be ahead.
  • Jon Jay provided the offense, showing some rare power by hitting a 2 run homer with 2 outs. He went 1 for 3 total.
  • Unfortunately, Tyler Greene and Brandon Yarbrough were the only to S-Cards to collect a base hit. Greene also walked and swiped a bag. He also had a throwing error.
  • Cody Haerther struck out twice and stranded three runners.
  • P.J. Walters allowed 3 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings. He fanned 9 of the 22 batters he faced and walked only one. He’s 0-2 and in need of some serious run support.
  • Nick Webber couldn’t find the strike zone, loading the bases with walks, and then walked in a run. I still can’t believe the Cards wasted a 2nd round pick on this guy.
  • Bob Zimmerman cleaned up Webber’s mess, retiring the next two batters and not allowing his inherited runners to score. The following inning he allowed a solo blast.
  • Luke Gregerson saw his professional homer-less streak come to an end (if you don’t count his stint in the Arizona Fall League), allowing a solo homer in the 9th. He struck out one.

Palm Beach 9, Daytona 0

  • Daryl Jones goes 2 for 5 with with a homer and 2 K’s. He’s now hitting .391 for the season. I want to get excited, I really do so I asked John Vuch what is the story with his early success. He was nice enough to reply: “Simply gaining experience and maturity has helped a lot – he is yet to turn 21 years old, so just accumulating pro AB’s is a big part of the answer. Additionally, I think Keith Mitchell has helped him quite a bit - especially since he had the opportunity to work with Jones all last year, he was able to carry forward the adjustments and improvements that Daryl was making at the end of last year. But by far, the biggest part of it is the work the players did during the off-season to prepare themselves for this spring training. It’s something that we emphasize to our players, and their work from Sep – Feb was a huge part of what allowed them to do what they did this March. As far as what they’re doing differently, I don’t think there are any huge changes as far as swing mechanics, etc – just a lot of little things, such as improving pitch recognition, anticipating what pitch a pitcher may throw in a given situation, etc.”
  • Daniel Descalso went 3 for 4 with 3 runs scored. I still think they could’ve drafted him later, but if he keeps hitting like this he’ll earn his keep as a 3rd rounder.
  • Tyler Henley went 2 for 4 with a walk, an RBI and a K.
  • Brandon Buckman doubled, walked and drove in a couple of runs.
  • Donovan Solano tripled and struck out twice.
  • Brad Furnish threw 4 innings of 1 hit ball. He walked a couple of batters and didn’t register a strikeout, but induced 10 groundball outs to 2 fly outs. Has he added a sinker to his arsenal?
  • Mark McCormick had a Mark McCormick kind of outing. 2 innings, only 1 hit but 4 walks and 5 K’s.
  • Kenny Maiques allowed 2 hits and 2 walks over 2 innings with no K’s. He also threw a wild pitch. Not looking super sharp yet.

16 Responses to “Daily Farm Report 4/8/08, plus draft stuff”

  1. Oh, how I love thee, Daryl. Let me count the ways… It really is a cautionary tale, I suppose, on giving up on guys too quickly. Hard to believe Jones is only 20 yrs old still; seems like we’ve been talking about him forever.

    Nick Webber hurts my heart. Thankfully, the rest of that 2005 draft turned out okay.

  2. Another Amari Marti sighting: Saw him at the loading zone (the Missouri Equivalent of the Loading Dock) last night. He had burgers in each hand and was trying to fit them both in his mouth at the same time! They definitely fit better one at a time but he kept forcing it and even got some sauce in his eyes! This had to be the reason he didn’t get a hit tonight.

  3. i thought this draft was looking pretty good for us at that 13th pick a while ago, but that changed when one of my favorites, harold martinez, fell off the map. now i think tanner scheppers is going to be long gone when our pick comes around, and i don’t really know who i want. i said the other day that if scheppers was gone i wanted one from the melville, beckham, posey trio, but they all look like they could be gone too.

    right now i think you would take alonso going strictly off those rankings. he is one of the biggest bats in the draft, and even though he doesn’t play a need position, he is so far ahead of a guy like aaron hicks that i don’t think you can justify passing on him.

  4. I hope Daryl Jones won’t turn out to be like Shaun Boyd… I’m thinking Daryl has much more potential and better tools though.

  5. With Melville’s velocity being a little iffy this spring, and Matinez falling so dramatically, there may actually be a chance that the Cardinals land both of my top picks in rounds 1 and either 1a or even 2. I have no idea how far Martinez is going to end up falling, but I, strangely enough, am even more excited than I was earlier, when I thought there was maybe a chance that either he or Melville, but almost definitely not both, would fall as far as 13. I still believe in old Harold, in the long run at least. He’s not the first HS senior to fall on his ass with the eyes of every MLB club squarely on him. And he won’t be the last.

  6. I’ve heard the recent talk of Martinez’s decline, any chance he falls all the way to 39? I’m sure he wouldn’t I’ve just been hearing the dropoff this season has been pretty bad.

  7. I’m thinking Martinez will just go to U of Miami, where he has a scholarship. There he could work his way back up the being a 1st rounder. I really think now he’s fallen as far as the 2nd or 3rd round.

  8. While Daryl Jones’ (mini-)start is certainly encouraging, let’s not overlook Donovan Solano. He’s even younger than Jones, apparently has much more defensive ability–according to Dan Fox’s Simple Fielding Runs, D.S. was very good at both SS and 3B last year, and Jones was frankly bad in the outfield.

    Solano is showing extra-base power he’s never previously exhibited. If he can hit just .270/.320/370 this year, in that league, in that home park, at 20 years old, while maintaining his fine glovework, he becomes a *very* promising ballplayer. For me, to be at an equivalent level, D.J. would have to hit, say, .280/.340/.440, and improve substantially with the leather, as well.

  9. Get that Solano bandwagon a rollin’!

  10. Quick question for those who follow the draft.

    What kind of numbers does it take for a JUCO hitter need to get attention from scouts?

    I’m most interested in what it takes for the sluggers rather than the speed or all around type of player.

    avg/obp/slg?

    thanks

  11. depends on where they play. obviously a player at a juco in florida doesn’t need to dominate as much as someone in missouri.

    now obviously getting noticed and being picked in the first round are completely different things, but just for some reference beau mills (the only juco player picked in the first round last year) hit .458/.556/1.033 with 22 doubles, 1 triple, 38 homers, 100 runs, and 123 RBIs in 240 at bats last year.

  12. JUCO is as much about a scouts eye report then anything you can get out of stats or game film.

    You might get a MLB quality prospect facing kids who wont play baseball after 2 years of JUCO elig.

    One local JUCO guy to keep an eye on is John Flanagan a lanky LHP from SW IL College in Belleville, IL.

    Was a top 5 to 10 round talent last year, fell and was offered good money by the Whitesox and decided to go to a JUCO.

    He is LHP, tall with good stuff and still growing…he is exactly the kind of guy the Cards need to start taking more of…instead of the Thomas Eager of the worlds.

    This system lacks LHP starters….its workd with Nick Addition…lets try it again.

    Link to SWIC’s baseball stats if your curious

    http://www.swic.edu/athletics/baseball/pstats08.jsp

  13. Did my post get deleted?

  14. No — posts with links in them wind up in the moderator queue. Usually, since there’s multiple of us, it isn’t long before they get approved but it is a manual process.

  15. Oh no prob…I wasnt signed in and didnt see it.

    I thought Bill Dewitt finally had enough of me and had me banned from Al Gore’s Internet.

    :)

  16. Picklefork: Nice comments on my nephew, John Flanagan, from Southwestern Illnois College. It’s been a few weeks since you wrote about him and I’m wondering if you are still as high on him as you were back on April 8th. Needless to say, we’re very proud of John, and think he’s got a great future. I, for one, would sure love to see the Cardinals grab him, since he’s just across the river in their back yard. Thanks in advance for any comments you may have on John.

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