We have given you updates on some of the top college players, and we have also given our thoughts on how the top prospects rank. Now it is time to try and fit something together and see where they might go. It is still extremely early, and I would be surprised if I got any of these picks right, but it is always fun to try. I do have to warn you that updates on high school players are few and far between at this point, so I am going off old reports on most of these guys and trending a lot toward college guys early. I am also making assumptions on what these teams may be looking for, but at this point who isn’t? sluhser, ask and you shall receive.
Here are my projections for the first half of the first round.
1. Rays- Aaron Crow RHP Missouri
The Rays showed last year that they were willing to spend the money to get the top talent available when they took David Price, so Pedro Alvarez’s affiliation with Scott Boras shouldn’t be a factor. However, they are pretty set at the corners with Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria. They say you can never have enough pitching, and with the season Crow is having it will be hard to pass him up.
2. Pirates- Pedro Alvarez 3b Vanderbilt
The Pirates are in desperate need of a franchise player, and they say they are no longer bound to the slot guidelines. If so, Pedro Alvarez is a perfect fit.
3. Royals- Tim Beckham SS Griffin High School (GA)
The Royals took a shortstop with a huge stick last year in Mike Moustakas, but there aren’t many that believe he can play that position in the majors. No one questions Beckham’s ability to do just that, and he has the skills to make him one of the top players in the game at that position.
4. Orioles- Brian Matusz LHP San Diego
The Orioles are in desperate need of pitching after dealing one of the game’s best in Erik Bedard. Matusz is right there with Crow as the top pitcher in college baseball, and the Orioles will be thrilled if he is available at #4.
5. Giants- Tanner Scheppers RHP Fresno State
The Giants could really use an impact bat in their system, but the only bats worthy of the 5th pick are first basemen. However, the Giants may not be willing to spend such a high pick on a first baseman after moving top prospect Angel Villalona to the position. They may reach a little for a guy like Gordon Beckham or Buster Posey, but it could be hard to pass on a power arm like Scheppers.
6. Marlins- Yonder Alonso 1b Miami (FL)
After trading away Miguel Cabrera the Marlins could really use a future #3 hitter. They don’t have one in their system, but they do have one in their backyard. The Marlins will stick with the local kid and take Alonso.
7. Reds- Tim Melville RHP Holt High School (MO)
The Reds have taken a bat with their first pick the last 3 years and will probably be looking for an arm to replace Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey in their system. Just like in 2004 when they got Bailey, the best high school pitcher in the country could fall to them with the 7th pick.
8. White Sox- Justin Smoak 1b South Carolina
The White Sox want a slugger, and there may not be a better one than Smoak. Smoak has a ton of power and is a slick defender at first. He could be ready to replace Thome or Konerko in a couple of years. They may also consider Posey as A.J. Pierzynski is getting up there in years, but I think they will go for the power.
9. Nationals- Kyle Skipworth C Patriot High School (CA)
The Nationals have shown a strong preference for high school players in recent years, and Skipworth would be a great value at this spot. They were supposedly ready to take Matt Wieters last year, and Skipworth is a very similar player.
10. Astros- Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky
The Astros need pitching, and they need pitching that can move fast. Friedrich is a lefty with an above average fastball and a dynamite curveball. He also has just enough command to get to Houston quickly.
11. Rangers- Eric Hosmer 1b American Heritage High School (FL)
Hosmer is the best high school hitter in the draft, but he could fall due to his affiliation with Boras. I don’t think he will get past the Rangers who have shown that they will spend in the draft and could use a slugger at first.
12. Athletics- Gordon Beckham SS Georgia
Beckham could go a lot earlier than this if a team is looking for quick help at either middle infield spot, but the A’s will be thrilled if Beckham falls to them.
13. Cardinals- Harold Martinez SS/3B Braddock High School (FL)
The Cardinals love college righties with big time stuff, and it will be hard for them to pass on a guy like Shooter Hunt if he is available, but they also like high school guys that know how to play the game. Martinez is one of those guys as he excels both offensively and defensively. After leaning pitcher heavy the last couple years, I think they will go for the best position player on the board, and at this point that is Martinez.
14. Twins- Alex Meyer RHP Greensburg High School (IN)
The Twins have a lot of young position players in the major leagues, but after trading away Johan Santana and Matt Garza they are real short on possible top of the rotation starters. I think they will go pitcher, and most likely high school pitcher. The best one available is Gerrit Cole, but the Twins don’t pick Boras players. Alex Meyer isn’t hurting for stuff, and he should be a slot sign.
15. Dodgers- Isaac Galloway CF Los Osos High School (CA)
Anybody that knows anything about Logan White knows he loves high school pitchers in the first round, and guys like Alex Meyer, Brett Devall, and Kyle Lobstein could be at the top of his list. However, I think this could be the year that changes. There are a couple of toolsy high school outfielders from California that could be a nice fit. Aaron Hicks may have a higher upside, but Galloway is more polished and its not like he is hurting for tools.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
The saber scouting guys mentioned Martinez the other day — and not in a positive way.
FWIW.
i’ve read recently that martinez’s stock has slipped considerably. he may not be a first rounder now, or even a 2nd one. i bet he goes to the U of Miami now to try and build his stock back up.
i have heard the same thing, but it has just been hinted at. i’m waiting until i see a more concrete report before i slide him down b/c he is still currently ranked as one of the top high school bats in the draft by every site and i liked what i saw last summer. if he slides out of the first round, i too think he will be heading to miami. i think shooter hunt was the safer pick, but i am still a little biased toward what i want instead of what the cardinals usually do.
azru, the first thing that popped in my head after reading that report was michael burgess. he was ranked in nearly the same spot as martinez heading into last year, and he had an absolutely terrible senior season. everyone said his stock was way down and he looked a mess at the plate. it ended up that he slid down to the middle of the very large sandwich round last year, but he came out and had maybe the most impressive pro debut of any high schooler chosen last year. now i’m not saying martinez will do the same, but this kind of thing is not unprecedented. cody johnson was in the same boat in 2006, and he had a monster year last year.
I like your mock up so far, erik, although I think that Oakland will try to take a pitcher, probably collegiate, this year. Even after all the deals in the offseason, with the way their big league club looks as if it’s going to go in the next couple of years, I think they’ll look to add some more pitching depth of the quick moving variety. Maybe Brett Hunter or Jacob Thompson. Thompson especially would fit very nicely with what the Athletics like to do.
I hadn’t really seen all that on Martinez. I heard some scuttlebutt a while back that he was having a rough spring, and his stock was dropping, but I had no idea it was this dramatic. Maybe the Cards can land him in the 2nd or even third round and buy him away from the U. I still like an awful lot about the kid.
I think I might flip your #s 1 and 3, also. I think the Rays will be too enamoured of Beckham’s athleticism to pass him by, and Crow goes to the other Missouri team, the Royals. The Pirates do probably take Alvarez to get that name recognition, though.
Am I the only one really hoping that either G. Beckham or Kyle Skipworth falls to the Cards? Those two would both be fantastic picks, particularly as how I don’t think there’s any way Melville gets anywhere near 13.
Whoops. Sorry, FGC, I thought erik had the byline. My apologies.
I will personally take down all my Bruce Manno dolls and posters and replace them with a I Love Jeff Luhnow poster and pillow if they land Harold Martinez.
He is a stud…..think David Wright.
rb, no problem. the only thing i would say is that if oakland does take a college pitcher, i think it would be the local kid from cal tyson ross. i have him ahead of both hunter and thompson, and he should be a fast mover as well. he also has pretty darn good stuff.
i just think if gordon beckham makes it down to their pick, they aren’t going to let him go. bobby crosby hasn’t exactly been stellar in oakland, and they have no one in their system that can fill that spot unless they had a good enough lineup to carry the light hitting gregorio petit.
You could be right, FGC. I just think that Thompson, in particular, fits the mold of the type of pitcher they seem to like to draft.
I think Ross is much better, though.
As for SS, have they completely soured on Cliff Pennington as well as Crosby? I don’t actually follow the Oakland system as closely as I used to anymore, so I’m not really sure.
Interesting that the saber guy thinks Martinez won’t go in the 1st round. I can understand. A lot of players have been performing well this spring and could force Martinez down. If Martinez falls far enough, signability will come into question.
Wouldn’t it be something if the Cardinals took a signable college pitcher like Tyson Ross, Christian Friedrich or Shooter Hunt at 13 with the hope that Harold Martinez would fall to 39 where they’d pick him and buy him out of Miami.
Obviously the chances of this happening are -100, but a guy can dream.
In response to The Red Baron, I wouldn’t think Oakland will go for Thompson because they pretty much just took Thompson last year in the form of James Simmons. With the 12th pick, the earliest pick they’ve had in awhile, I’d imagine the A’s will try to get very good value. That could be either a pitcher or hitter, but IMO, Thompson is, talent wise, a 20-30 range pick, not 12.
I too have been thinking Beckham to Oakland since he started putting on a clinic at the plate this year. Oakland loves college shortstops. Since 2001, they’ve taken Bobby Crosby, John McCurdy , Omar Quintanilla and Cliff Pennigton in the 1st round or sandwich round and then they took Josh Horton(who might be a better 2nd baseman) in the 2nd round last year.
IMO, the college pitcher Oakland is most likely to take is Christian Friedrich, if he falls. He is almost identical to Barry Zito, from the curveball to the walks. However, I have long believed he’d be the perfect guy for Houston’s rebuilding system. Although after seeing what the Astros did last year in the draft and the months following, they might decide to pass on their first round selection, so who knows.
Not that it will matter for the Cardinals… but I would be surprised if Crowe is taken ahead of a southpaw with Matusz’ stuff/performance.
Does Martinez project to have the power to play a corner spot? There hasn´t been a middle infielder starter (from high school) come out of the first round after the 10th pick in 15 years. Its one things for the Cardinals think they are smart enough to buck this trend with Kozma but to think they can do it two years in a row is lunacy.
I like your mock and agree with alot of the picks - let me ask you guys this:
I think the Giants may go for Skipworth or Hicks with that pick - agree or digaree.
Also, I think Shooter Hunt probably gets taken in the top 15…
RE: RedBaron
The A’s do like their college pitchers but, they are not foolish enough to for a low ceiling guy with their 12th pick like Jacobson.
If they do take a college pitcher there I think Hunt is the guy
Hey, what do you guys know about Ian Berger?
I caught Berger’s start last year against Louisville in the Columbia Regional but I don’t remember anything really special. He threw very well in that game, though, and is throwing extremely well this year as you probably know. What makes him good is that he throws strikes, which is pretty much what Mizzou preaches.