Joe Strauss looks at the shift in the Cardinals philosophies. He hits a sore spot or two.
The club made minimal use of cross-checkers before that draft, relying instead on area scouts and numbers. Luhnow, averse to devoting a premium pick on righthanded high school pitching, backed DeWitt’s objection to a first-round selection of Philip Hughes, Mozeliak’s choice.
The Cardinals instead selected Boston College pitcher Chris Lambert, whose career never gained traction before he was traded to the Detroit Tigers last May for injured lefthander Mike Maroth. Hughes, 21, rocketed through the New York Yankees’ system to go 5-3 in 13 major-league starts last season. Now he’s considered one of the top young starters in baseball.
No player from the Cardinals’ 2004 draft has reached the major leagues.
Ouch. Score one for Mo.
Strauss again hits a nerve, but this time he exaggerates to try and prove a point.
Last year the Cardinals famously passed on another high school righthander, Rick Porcello, due to signability issues. The Tigers ultimately signed Porcello, rated by some scouts a once-a-decade talent, for a $7 million contract. The Cardinals selected high school shortstop Pete Kozma, an athletic player projected by most clubs as a borderline second-round player.
I would’ve preferred Porcello, but this is a dead horse. The horse has been hit by a semi, ran over backwards and steamrolled into the pavement by now. 26 teams had their shot at Porcello, and most of them passed on him for the same reason the Cardinals did, yet it feels like only St. Louis media and fans are eager to crucify ownership over it. But the part that really bugs me is Strauss says Kozma was projected by most clubs had him as a borderline 2nd rounder. While I wasn’t and still am not a huge fan of the pick, that is baloney. BA ranked him the 39th best prospect in the country prior to the season. Minnesota would have taken him at #28. The Blue Jays seriously considered taking him as their 1st pick and instead took Kevin Ahrens. Jim Callis said before the draft Kozma could go at 21-30.
Those who survived the purge perceive Luhnow as innovative and solicitous of scouts’ and minor-league staffers’ opinions. Detractors cite Luhnow’s annual reorganization of the scouting department and heavy-handed use of statistics as proof of someone learning to swim in deep water.
Sounds like sour grapes. I’m not saying Luhnow is perfect, but the amount of scrutiny and just plain venom he receives by some of the scouting world is pretty unwarranted in my opinion. The job he inherited was previously run by old school guys, with old school buddies, who wanted to do everything the old school way. As an outsider, they felt threatened by someone trying to take a different approach. To me, Luhnow comes across as a guy who is extremely eager to learn all aspects of baseball- stats and scouting. Sure, he has taken some head scratchers draft, and I think sometimes he tries to get too creative for his own good. But he’s also given the farm some respectability for once in a long while; even Joe admits before he gets into this. Until I see evidence that Luhnow is a total jerkwad, I just can’t buy this idea that he’s some sort of geeky enforcer who pushes his way on everyone else. The bottom line is the people he let go had aided in turning the farm system into a laughing stock. Joe also cites that hiring guys like Jeff Albert (Batavia’s new hitting coach) is faux pas, but personally I think it’s great they are giving guys like him a shot. For too long baseball has been like an exclusive club that you had to be an insider to get into. The “insiders” aren’t the only ones who can seriously bring understanding about the game.
Moving along.
- Springfield jumped all over Brad Thompson, dinging him up for 10 hits over 4 innings.
- Jon Jay is healthy and rarin’ to go. He went 3 for 4 with a double, an RBI and 2 runs scored.
- Jose Martinez went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and an RBI. He went 6 for 8 in the 2 games series.
- Nebraska product Luke Gorsett hit a 2 run homer.
- Allen Craig went 3 for 5 with 2 K’s.
- Cody Haerther went 2 for 4. This is his 3rd season starting at Springfield.
- Brandon Yarbrough and Shane Robinson both collected a couple of singles.
- The soft-tossing control artist Mr. P.J. Walters went 3.2 innings, allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 2 K’s.
- Adam Ottavino needed 38 pitches to get through 1.2 innings, not exactly efficient. He allowed 1 run on 2 hits, a walk, a HBP and struck out 2. Ease of outs is what I’m looking for with Mr. Ottavino this year, it’s something he really needs to improve on.
- Jon Mikrut + Hammonds should = trouble. An extreme fly ball pitcher, Mikrut struck out 2 in .2 innings, fanning 1. He better miss bats in order to survive, me thinks.
- Luke Gregerson beaned Ryan Ludwick in the head. That’s a sure why to get on the manager’s dookie list.
Memphis 6, Albuquerque 1
- The rehabbing Joel Pineiro was sharp, going 3.2 innings, allowing 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB, with 4 K’s.
- Chris Perez was on his game. He struck out 3 of the 4 batters he faced, allowing 1 hit and no walks. He struck out the 1st two batters on just 6 pitchers.
- Big Joe Mather went 2 for 5 with a double and two runs scored.
- Colby Rasmus went 1 for 3.
- A couple of the AAAA guys had good days. Josh Phelps went 3 for 4 with a double, homer and 2 RBIs. Brian Barden went 2 for-4 with a double, walk and run scored.
- Excluding inter-squad games, Memphis went 12-3. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.
Palm Beach 2, Carolina 1
- Brandon Dickson, a non drafted free agent out of Tusculum quietly had a pretty nice year of the Quad Cities last season. Today, he wasn’t quite on his game. He gave up 2 runs on 6 hits over 3 IP. He had no walks and a K.
- Kyle Sadlowski threw 3 perfect innings with 1 K.
- Marco Gonzalez had one scoreless inning, allowed 1 hit, had 2 K’s.
- Josh Dew threw a scoreless inning and allowed 2 hits.
- Kenny Maiques threw one perfect inning with 2 K’s. Dew and Maiques should make for a pretty nice 1-2 punch for PB.
- Thomas Pham went 2 for 4 with an RBI. For as much as I thought Pham might be toast, he would only be a sophomore for Cal State Fullerton right now, probably playing as a two-way player.
- Tyler Henley, Steve Hill, Arnoldi Cruz, Brandon Buckman, Donovan Solano all went 1-for-4.
Quad Cities One 5, Jupiter (A+) 5
- Blake King lasted 4, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He had 4 K’s to 2 BB. No mas on the walks.
- Adam Reifer, Jeff Luhnow’s “sleeper of the draft” allowed 1 run on the only hit he allowed, striking out 2 over 0.2.
- Brian Broderick threw 2 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, w/2 K’s.
- Southpaw Matt Spade threw one scoreless inning with1 BB and 2 K’s.
- Justin Roberson, the Skip Schumaker of the minor league camp, doubled and was HBP twice in his three plate appearances. The man has been on base more often then not.
- Matt Arburr singled and had two RBIs.
- Charlie Pelt homered in his only AB.
- Jose Garcia went 2-for-4.
- Quad Cities One finished their spring 9-3-1.
Quad Cities Two 2, Greensboro 2
- Nick Additon, a favorite sleeper of mine, went 3 innings, allowed 3 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB with 5 K’s.
- Brett Zawacki turned down a scholarship to play for what is now the #1 Division I team in the country. Instead, he’s showing off his talents in Jupiter. He allowed no runs on 2 hits and no walks, striking out 4. Zawacki is a guy I expect to be a top 30 Cardinal prospect in 2009.
- Justin Fiske fanned two in a perfect inning.
- Jose Mateo pitched a scoreless inning with one K.
- David Riddle pitched a perfect and extremely efficient inning He needed just six pitches.
- Ross Oeder went 2 for 4.
- Ryde Rodriguez 2 for 4 with a run scored and RBI.
- Carlos Pupo RBI double, Ivan Castro also doubled.
- The QC Two team finished 8-1-1.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
erik
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I was at the Cards-Cards game today…I was impressed with PJ’s change…he made Glaus and Kennedy look extremely foolish in back to back plate appearances. According to the gun his change-up was coming in at 67-68 and his fastball topped out at 89 (I think the gun may have been fast…Ottavino hit 97 and was pitching at 95). PJ was also mixing in a curve quite a bit (it seemed).
Jose Martinez looked good in both games at the dish and on the field. Glaus is an absolute giant…and Pujols is just the man(g)! That’s what I took home from the park.
That gun may not actually be all that fast. Last year Ottavino hit 99 mph against Daytona, verified by two separate gun readings.
I was at the game today’s as well, I will second that of cardzfanbub and add that Walters fastball sat at more of 87 mph range, but his speed varied wildly, with every pitch, which seemed to test well against the big league hitters.
I can remember John Tudor absolutely baffling hitters in the mid-’80s with the way he changed speeds and worked the ball around the four corners of the strike zone. I doubt if he ever got close to 90 mph with his fastest pitch.
I know he was a lefty and a major-league vet, so the comparison probably isn’t worth the time it took me to type it.
But still, if a guy can change speeds within a 25-mph range, and not tip off hitters in the process, AND hit the dark parts of the strike zone, I have to think he can get hitters out at any level.
That said, I have no idea if Walters can do all three of those things.
FWIW, I think the Cards are moving in the right direction.
First, I think Luhnow’s striking an appropriate balance between Moneyball and old-school scouting philosophies.
Second, I think they did quite well in 2007. I think that both Mortensen and Kopp have a chance of being better than Porcello and at a lower price. As I have said, Kopp was my #1 pitcher in the 2007 draft (there was no point looking at Price) and I was impressed when they stole Kopp from the team I was working with.
Third, I am intrigued by PJ Walters. The guy clearly knows how to pitch. He may never blow you away, but I think he has a change of being a very solid pitcher ala Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux. Not a number one, but a very solid number 3 or 4.
Also, based on the speed differential PJ’s “change-up” and his fastball, his change-up is probably a screwball. The speed differential is too large for it to be effective without significant movement.
I agree with you, erik, the whole Kozma thing is getting more than a little old. I wish they had drafted Porcello; I said as much when I did my reviews over at VEB. But the idea that Kozma was going to be sitting there, almost two rounds later, is ridiculous. There are plenty of legitimate criticisms you can make; trumping up something like that smacks of laziness to me.
Hey Chris-
Have you seen any video of Brett Zawacki’s mechanics? I haven’t come across any, but I’ve heard varying reports from different sources. I was curious if you had any insights. The kid’s a very intriguing talent; I just hope he has a decent long term outlook. Thanks. And I agree, Kopp could be a monster. I really like him.
I have to admit, I’m still a little puzzled as to why they didn’t skip Maiques up to AA, given the lack of a real promising closer there, and the presence of Josh Dew at PB. Still, that should be a pretty wicked duo this season.
I’m also still really vexed by the organisation moving Tommy Pham off shortstop so soon. The kid apparently has ridiculous rools; I think they should have given him more of a chance to prove he couldn’t play there before moving him. Now, even if he hits like crazy, he’s behind half a dozen other outfield prospects.
I hope Jon Jay stays healthy; the guy is some kind of freaky hitter. Ditto for Jose Martinez; sure would be nice to actually have some homegrown MI talent for a change.
I didn’t see Zawacki and the mlb.com draft tracker is down, so I can’t give you an opinion.
I think Kopp’s limiting factor is his head; whether he can master the mental part of the game.
“Joe also cites that hiring guys like Jeff Albert (Batavia’s new hitting coach) is faux pas, but personally I think it’s great they are giving guys like him a shot. For too long baseball has been like an exclusive club that you had to be an insider to get into. The “insiders” aren’t the only ones who can seriously bring understanding about the game.”
BTW, I thought this was an excellent point.
I don’t know much about Jeff Albert or his philosophy, but I do know that he’s a student of the game. That puts him ahead of maybe 90 percent of major league hitting (and pitching) instructors. Too many of the old school guys don’t really study hitters and just regurgitate the conventional wisdom, much of which is wrong.
The same thing goes for Brent Strom on the pitching side. He brings significant experience and an eye that has looked at a lot of film.
Chris, if you can share with us, who do you like in the upcoming draft?
What ticks me off with the organizations draft philosophy is that the team still makes unwise choices about the balance between big league filler and the draft/international free agents. We’re paying LaRussa $4million this year alone. But we can’t pay $7 million for Porcello?
Or if you prefer less extreme examples, what kind of players could we have signed above slot for the $1.5 mill paid to Aaron Miles and $1.5 mill to Clement? Over the past few years how many guys signed for $1million bucks or so after the 4th/5th round? These are guys we could have been spending this money on. I was going to do a little research into this, but my baseball America subscription has lapsed.
Come to the realization that the Cards are not cheap…they are just poor at getting value for their money.
Especially in terms of amateur spending, it takes a bigger picture kind of mentality, a patient approach of investing in ones self.
You would think with someone like Dewitt’s background of money making, he would understand the value of investing cheap with the chances of getting big returns
You spend 3M on Izturis you might get immediate returns, but what kind of value is that over the 3.58M you can get from spending it on Porcello
Risk vs Reward….you pay more money for players who represent less risk.
I would gamble 1.4M and a minor lg deal for Kozma against 3.58M and a MLB contract for Kozma.
You get what you pay for, when you spend 1 or 2M here and there to try to fix problems..those add up.
Its best to spend for safer, better bets…even if you have to to overpay.
The Cards philosophy is one of a small market team with little to now margin for error….as hard as they try to convince us that is the case…it is not…Cards are hardly walking the line of red/black.
Oh well..done with my rant…those things were pretty much known, but seeing them put into writing by Strauss just makes it burn even more.
chris, the draft tracker link at the top is down, but you can still get to the video if you click on the blue draft tracker link under the little paragraph at the top right of the 2007 draft homepage. that will take you to the draft tracker thing they use on draft day.
You want to look at a mess of a pitching motion…check out Deryk Hooker’s
Great results…but it looks like he lost a bet with somebody and now has to use that motion
Everyone’s body is diff..what feels right for Joe, might feel wrong for John….if you have gotten this far with that, with those results and health…why change it?
Perfect mech’s are subjective…what might be ideal for one, might be harmful to another.
“Have you seen any video of Brett Zawacki’s mechanics? I haven’t come across any, but I’ve heard varying reports from different sources. I was curious if you had any insights. The kid’s a very intriguing talent; I just hope he has a decent long term outlook.”
I couldn’t go through the clip frame by frame, so I can say whether his timing is good, but Zawacki looks good. His arm action looks solid and he’s got good tail on his FB.
“You want to look at a mess of a pitching motion…check out Deryk Hooker’s. Great results…but it looks like he lost a bet with somebody and now has to use that motion.”
Hooker’s arm action isn’t bad. His problem is that he flies open with his glove, which probably affects his consistency. At first I thought he was tipping his pitches (which he may) but he mostly seems to be all over the place with his glove-side arm.
That could be fixed relatively easily.
“Everyone’s body is diff..what feels right for Joe, might feel wrong for John….if you have gotten this far with that, with those results and health…why change it? Perfect mech’s are subjective…what might be ideal for one, might be harmful to another.”
Many people hold this idea, and I think it’s why more progress hasn’t been made to date.
The truth is that some things are safe and some things are dangerous. The reason is that, while there is some individual variation, people’s bodies are basically the same.
On Phil Hughes…aren’t stories a little mixed about that? My understanding is that Ludhow–being in charge of the scouting department–was the one who came up with Hughes in the first place, after being asked by Mozeliak to come up with a pick after their guy was suddenly taken.
‘Course, Joe Strauss and accuracy are kinda like oil and water.
If you play the percentages, then ON AVERAGE you will find that college pitchers are less risky than HS pitchers.
However, as was the case with Hughes, because you are counting on averages, you will sometimes get burned.
That doesn’t mean the strategy doesn’t make sense on average.
i wouldn’t base my drafting on averages, i would try to look at who i thought was the best player at that spot. if the scouts and scouting director thought phil hughes was the best player available with the 19th pick in the 2004 draft, they should have taken him. who cares if college pitchers on average make it more than high school pitchers, base your judgments on the individual players.
Why you rely on the scouts and crosscheckers and not a spreadsheet.
“Chris, if you can share with us, who do you like in the upcoming draft?”
Sorry, but I can’t say right now.
Normally, I wouldn’t have commented on Aaron Crow but the people singing his praises for his mechanics forced me to act.
There is nothing inconsistent between Strauss saying that the most teams had Kozma rated a second rounder and the fact that some teams, including the Cardinals, rating him higher. We’ll find out eventually whether the Cardinals were right, but Erik’s pointing out that other teams were prepared to draft Kozma in the first round and that Baseball America had him tabbed to go 21-30 does not make Strauss wrong about how most teams rated him. Finally, just because the issue has become a “dead horse” to Eric does not mean that Strauss should be precluded from mentioning in the context of a broader article on the organization’s approach to drafting. In my view, his perspective on the issue is worth having.
Thanks for the response, Chris. Thanks also FGC, for the tip on finding the video. I went over and took a look at it; he looks pretty good to me. Not as solid and repeatable as a Kopp or one of those guys yet, but his pitching elbow stays down and he finishes nicely, so I’m encouraged. Thanks guys.
Please stop referring to Barden as a AAAA guy.