Recently Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his Top 10 11 Cardinal prospects, and it elicited a lot of response here at FR. Kevin was nice enough to a little q and a, 11 questions to be exact. I hope you all enjoy his feedback as much as I did.
This may sound like a simple question, but how do you put together your Top 10/11’s? What all goes into it?
A whole truckload of minutes on my cell phone is basically what goes into it. The rankings are based on discussions with people in the game, so I get all sorts of opinions on the current and future value of players by talking to everyone I can; from general managers all the way down to area scouts who saw some of the younger, less experienced players as amateurs. From there I try to balance a players ultimate upside with the chances of him reaching that, and go from there.
What makes a good farm system? In other words, what are good organizations doing that others are failing to do?
Great scouting and drafting is the real key, obviously, but a good farm system generally has depth in various places. They have high upside power arms, as well as low-risk command and control guys. They have sluggers and on-base players. They have corner players and up-the-middle guys. And they have a lot of options.
The impression some of my readers got is that you kind of seem down on the Cardinals farm system as a whole. Yet at the same time, according to your article the Cardinals have an all star center fielder, a capable starting catcher, a closer, and three mid rotation starters, maybe more. Isn’t that an improvement to where the Cardinal system was just a few years ago?
The Cardinals system is better than it was a year ago, certainly. However, your assessment based on my perfect world scenarios is pretty optimistic. The attrition rate is ridiculous in the minor leagues, and not all, in fact likely less than half of those top six guys will reach their ultimate ceiling.
Would Jaime Garcia ranked higher on your list if not for his elbow?
I think so, but it wouldn’t have moved the needle too much. I probably would have put him ahead of Ottavino if he pitched the whole year.
Was Pete Kozma as big of an overdraft as some say?
Depends on how you look at it. Personally, I think the answer is yes, because I agree with the philosophy that in the first round you simply take the best available player on the board, and I don’t think Kozma was the 18th best player on the board from people I talked to. Now there are two things going on here. First off, it’s possible that Lunhow and his staff DID believe that. Secondly, it’s possible that they wanted a middle infielder, and wanted Kozma, and didn’t think he’d be available at 36, which is probably true. So I don’t agree with the pick, but if somebody wants to defend it, they could.
Do you have any insight into what turned it around for Joe Mather and Jarrett Hoffpauir all of a sudden? And why does it seem to just suddenly “click” for some prospects? I’m asking, because I gotta have a glimmer of hope for Daryl Jones and Tyler Greene.
If me, you or anyone could figure out why players suddenly click, we’d be millionaires, but in identifying Jones and Greene, it’s pretty clear that you get WHO it happens to. It tends to happen for toolsy players, and opposed to the opposite. So a guy like Mather might not be as surprising as Hoffpauir, although some just see Hoffpauir as a polished college guy who will struggle in the big leagues. Like you, I still have some faith in Jones as well. Hard to give up on that kind of athleticism.
Regarding your near misses-David Freese, Jess Todd, David Kopp-what do they become in a “perfect world”?
Freese is an interesting guy. I know an outstanding scout in California who saw him with Lake Elsinore, and he really loves the bat, but at the same time, you’re talking about a guy who turns 25 in April and has never played above A ball. Both Todd and Kopp have big league starting potential.
Whither Mitchell Boggs?
Whither might be a bit strong, but most scouts I talk to see him as a reliever in the end.
Aside from Luis De La Cruz who you mentioned in your article, are there any other sleepers in the system you like?
I like eighth round pick Tyler Henley as an athletic left-handed bat.
Take a wild guess-Who do you see the Cardinals drafting with the 13th pick overall?
Wow. Obviously, any answer to that question in February is an educated guess at best, but in the interest of fun, I’ll give them a polished college arm like Shooter Hunt of Tulane.
What do you do when you are not thinking about baseball?
“Not thinking about baseball” – does not compute. Seriously though, I like to spend time with my girlfriend and her two kids who we have partial custody of. She and I watch a lot of moves, and kind of get into genre jags, watching a bunch of Asian horror one week, and than all of Roman Polanski’s films made in the 1960s the next. I also spend a lot of time with my dog, Otto, a rescued pit bull, and play a good share of video games. I’m also a mean cook.
Filed under: Interviews | Tagged: Daryl Jones, David Freese, David Kopp, Jaime Garcia, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Jess Todd, Joe Mather, Kevin Goldstein, Mitchell Boggs, Pete Kozma, Shooter Hunt, Tyler Greene, Tyler Henley
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I remember seeing Tyler Henley in the CWS and thinking of Lenny Dykstra. Of course to me that means a gritty player, not sure what he means to most.
Shooter Hunt! Tulane! That would be a great pick, he’s a good one.
Boo Shooter! Not a big fan of that pick.
It doesn’t sound to me like Goldstein thinks much of Jaime, healthy or no. I don’t get it; what are you looking for?
Bahh.
RB, I remember from the first time Garcia appeared on the Baseball Prospectus radar that their basic criticism was the he was already about as good as he was going to get. In 2006 Goldstein said, quote, “Body is mature and filled out, leaving little room for projection.” There were also statements that he already had a “mature” approach to pitching, or some such, which is a back-handed compliment: while it looks like it’s speaking positively about a prospect, it also implies that he’s not going to learn much in the minors that he doesn’t already know, i.e., that you can’t just fog it in there at 97 and expect a major-leaguer not to catch up with it.
Kevin, if you’re reading this, have I accurately captured the background? Personally, I am an agnostic, never having seen Garcia pitch (but hoping that he will make it to AAA this year so that I can — the nearest non-AAA team to where I live is over 300 miles away…).
I would rather them take Shooter with their Sandwich pick if he’s available.
Apparently unless you throw consistently in the mid-90’s with a wipeout breaking ball you are not considered a pitching prospect. This despite the fact that command and durability are the most important traits a big league pitcher possesses. Thus Clayton Kershaw and his 5bb/9, 2.43k/bb is one of the top prospects while PJ Walters and his <2bb/9, 4.45k/bb is not a prospect. I know that Kershaw throws very hard, but unless you can command it you are not going to succeed in the big leagues.
Nicholas: I like Walters a lot and I am a big proponent of using K rate and BB rate to evaluate pitchers, however, there is quite a bit of doubt about how useful some of those stats are at very low levels of the minor leagues. They can certainly point out potential problems (like Kershaw’s control), but good numbers in those categories don’t necessarily predict good future results. Walters spent part of the season at AA last year and I would suspect that if he keeps his rate stats at the same level over a full season at AA, he might get mentioned more often, even if he can’t consistently throw in the mid 90’s.
Worthy of a 1st round pick or not, Shooter Hunt would compete for best name in the Cards system….might even unseat Blake Hawksworth.
roarke49: I am not trying to say that k/bb and bb/9, or any other stat are the end all be all of prospect analysis. I am just pointing out that evaluators are consistently wowed by tools and consistently ignore results. Command of the strike zone with a variety of pitches is a much better recipe for success than a blazing fastball. The vast majority of major league pitchers cannot throw 94-95mph. Even most of the #1/#2 starters out there do not throw very hard. Most sit in the low nineties with excellent command of their pitches. That is how you succeed. If you can command with great velocity (Beckett is the only one I could think of) then all the better.
Hunt is an ideal Cards pick…has the K’s per 9 and is coming off a good Cape Cod LG…something the Cards seem to put a lot of weight on.
Unless Hunt cleans up his mech’s a bit, gets more consistent with his release point, he will continue to lose his command and be a guy with good stuff who cant always use it to the best of his abilities.
Upside….has a little Ottavino in him…..not a guy I want at #13.
Again, can a brother get a LHP?
Hunt at #13, no way! He’s also logged a lot of innings, let’s see how he does this year. I don’t see Big League projection there.
Nicholas: I’m not disagreeing with your basic premise. My point is just that at the low levels the “scouts eye” method of evaluating talent is naturally going to determine who the hot prospects are, because the statistics don’t mean as much at that level.
p’fork-i have been meaning to get back with you, i’ve been hard pressed to find email time. anywho, aside from Freidrich what LHP’s do you like?
roarke49: I agree that the stats don’t mean as much as the “scout’s eye” at the lower levels. All the “scout’s eye” seems to see is velocity though.
Seems like most names that come up with the draft get the same reaction; “He’d be a fine sandwich round pick, but he’s an overdraft at #13!”
Actually, I remember the same kind of reaction to the Kozma and Mortensen picks last year.
Shooter Hunt won’t last until the supplemental round. Jemile Weeks won’t either, assuming he is healthy. So what’s the point of projecting them as good picks for the Cardinals later in the draft?
I go to Tulane and should be able to see a lot of Shooter as the semester finishes up. Awesome name.
LHP’s I like?
Brett DeVall a HS LH…already throwing in the low to mid 90’s with a 2 breaking balls and a change.
Jarett Martin another HS LHP….has a perfect pitchers build with a little bit of Randy Johnson in his motion…HS’er already pitching in the 90’s with at least decent secondary stuff.
Kyle Long…Howie’s son…6′8 280lbs…hits 96mph on the gun
Tim Murphy UCLA…heard good things about him, but need to see him pitch before I can give an opinion either way.
DeVall was impressive during his stint on the mound in the Aflac Game…not trying to rip the kid b/c I like him..but his physical comparison on the mound is that if Ron Villone…dont know how much upside he has left physically…but might be this years version of Madison Bumgrarner…big LHP that goes early based on his fastball.
TICY - Graduated from Tulane in ‘06 and moved soon after. So excited to see the new Turchin when I go back later this year (and the new Mae’s). And we’re gonna have a such a nasty team, led by Shooter.
Over the past several years, the Cardinal Draft&Devel. people have excelled the most at non-college position players. From Pujols, Molina, and Duncan, to Daric Barton, Bryan Anderson, and Colby Rasmus. (It’s entirely possible that in a few years 3 of the 10 best hitters in baseball will be Redbird draftees.)
So I say play to your organizational strength, and draft the best high school bat available.
As for Kevin’s top 11, it looks an awful lot like the standard Baseball America (KG’s former employer, of course) overview, without much evidence of Baseball Prospectus-type statistical analysis. I was hoping more of a synthesis. Sigh.