I’ve been thinking lately about the 2008 draft and I just can’t shake a gut feeling I have about who the Cardinal will take at 13. I know some will call it another overdraft. Some of you won’t like it. But I just can’t shake the feeling that we are going to end up with…
Jemile Weeks. I don’t know why. It’s just one of those know-so feelings deep down in my gut. I could be way off base. It isn’t that he’s not a 1st round talent, he is. But he’s more of a late 1st round/high supplemental round type of talent, at least in my own estimation.
The case for Jemile Weeks:
- Fantastic athlete. Plus speed, rated 70/80 by scouts.
- Outstanding defensive 2B, a lot better then his brother in that regard. Jemile has better hands, range, and the ability to pivot on double play.
- A switch hitter with solid contact skills, he has very good bat speed, strong wrists, and a good batting eye.
- He possesses the “6th tool”- signability.
- By all accounts, he has outstanding makeup.
The case against:
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He does not have as high of a ceiling as his brother, and I’m willing to bet there will be higher ceiling players available at 13.
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He suffered a bit of a sophomore slump, but by and large due to injuries. (Groin)
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He has some pop, but he is not a big power threat by any means. He projects more as a lead off hitter.
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ARGH!!! Not another “signable” player!
(Here’s his profile at Brewerfan.net)
Jemile is ranked towards the bottom 30 of most draft rankings, which is why I said he could be seen as an overdraft. I’m thinking the Cardinals will take him because-
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He’ll come in at slot.
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He’s closer to the big leagues then many players who will be on the board at 13.
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The club places a premium on infield defense.
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2B has been a gaping black hole since the post-Vina era. While we’ve had some surprisingly nice stopgaps like Grudz and Womack, we’ve had some astonishingly awful ones.
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The big league team is deficient in OBP and speed.
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The big league team desperately could use a lead off hitter under team control for a few years.
Will I be happy with the pick if it goes down? No, I wouldn’t be overly enthused over it, but I guess I could live with it. I’d rather see them take a high ceiling high school bat, preferably one with some power potential. I’d even take a more polished collegiate power hitter. But Weeks seems to fit a lot of the team’s requirements, and this inkling I have is pretty strong. We’ll see what happens.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
he has a ton of talent, and if he has a big spring i wouldn’t mind taking him at 13, but i would absolutely love to get him in the sandwich round. unfortunately he won’t last that long. he is the kind of guy i want in the system, but this year i think he is going to fall right between our picks. he would be the perfect kind of guy to take if we had our typical pick from the last several years in that 20-30 range.
the guy i get the gut feeling about right now is tanner scheppers the righty from fresno st. he is 6′4″ 200 lbs. so he still has some projection, but he already has a mid-90’s fastball and a pretty good slider. his numbers weren’t great last year, but he struck out a batter an inning and his walks weren’t real high considering his stuff. his sophomore year was actually quite a bit better than matt garza, and he has a matt garza feel to him as they are identical size and their stuff is so similar.
I would like for Weeks to scratch switch hitting. He is a much better hitter as a righty, with a lot more pop, and a better contact rate.
Real good glove, but the ceiling is somewhat limited, yes. He doesn’t have his brother’s power.
What happened to him that produced that drop-off from his freshman to sophmore seasons???
pulled a groin muscle
Surely they learned a thing or two from last years draft. They’ll also want to avoid criticism from a more educated fan base. They know they messed up on Porcello. My bet is they take a high upside pick. You could be right - I hope not.
Erik, I had the same feeling when I read about Weeks at BP — I think they called him the best athlete at 2nd base eligible for this year’s draft.
I immediately thought he’s exactly what the Cards need, for all the reasons you mentioned: speed, defense, makeup. I watched him as a freshman in the CWS, playing on the team with Jay and Perez, and was as impressed with him as I was with the guys we’d just drafted.
But here’s some consolation for the posters who don’t want to see us draft him: I’ve never once been right with my hunches on the draft, and the Cards have never once taken the guy who was my favorite on the board when their turn came up.
So that seals it — no way do we take him at 13!
I could see this and it wouldn’t be that bad. Those freshman numbers show quite a bit of baseball skills. I think the same knock on him comes up when you talk about Kozma–their overall peak power is not something you drool over. But the guy is 5′9″ and about 160 lbs, there is strength to be added to his frame. He might be able to pop twenty HRs at his peak.
Just wanted to pass along some info on Weeks from Coach Morris that is not premium content, it seems he wasn’t healthy all year:
Q: Talk about Blake Tekotte and Jemile Weeks and what you need to get out of them.
Morris: we have four or five guys that are projected as pretty good draft choices. There’s 100 first rounders right now to hear people talk. We have three guys projected first round type guys – Dennis Raben, Alonzo and Weeks. And Tekotte, Mark Sobolewski could be drafted pretty well. Those guys are juniors, have played in the World Series. It’s very important for those guys to lead with example. They know what it takes to get there.
Q: How important is it having Weeks back healthy?
Morris: That’s very important. Jemile had four stolen bases last year, and his thing is speed. He had a pulled groin muscle the entire year, couldn’t run. It hurt him on defense. He DH’d, we hit him fourth – he’s one of our best players. He has to be able to run offensively and defensively. If he’s healthy he’s one of the best second basemen in the country.
Q: Talk about what makes Jemile a special player.
Morris: He’s got some pop for a little guy. He might have the quickest bat on the team. Jemile’s a very good player that hits with occasional power, has a lot of doubles and triples when he’s 100 percent healthy. He’s playing full speed and having a good time.
Q: Weeks didn’t play in USA baseball this summer.
Morris: He was on the front cover of the USA baseball media guide, was supposed to be their premier player for this summer. He had to get well. It was my decision because he really wanted to play. I said, `Jemile, you’re not playing, man. You’re on scholarship, and the most important thing is right here, not playing summer baseball.’ He understood.
http://miami.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=776802
There is also an interview with him in that link if you’d like to read it…
My guess is that Melville falls to them because of signability issues. If this happens they have to put the organizational bias against high school pitchers aside and take him. The best HS pitcher in the land, in your back yard–if they don’t take him the kid will fall out of the first round because other teams will think that the cards know something they don’t.
baseball america has a free article up on the front page. apparently he hasn’t been pitching for long, but he has that perfect, projectable frame and a power arm. he has a 93-96 mph fastball and a slider that is also above average at 83-86. once again, i make the matt garza comparison.
Is there a reason Weeks isn’t playing shortstop?
I have seen Weeks play up close and personal and he is the real deal. He needs a healthy breakout year and I think he’s looking for slot $$. Hope to be seeing him in a few weeks in Miami and give a report back.
Melville is a GREAT kid, poised, mature beyond his years. I also think that he’s another example of a player who just wants to get out there and play. If he has a great year he won’t last to 13. I think that neither one of them is a Boras client, not sure but that tells you something right there. Both posess humility and would fit in the Cardinal organization.
If the take a college 2B at #13, I first would probably eat my mouse pad, second if they did in my mind it would have to be David Adams from UVA.
Adams is a middle of the order 2B and has a good enough glove and advanced hitting approach he could be ready by the 2nd half of 2009.
2B is probably one of the deeper positions in the system anyway.
Hoffpauir is about ready.
Martinez is likely a guy who shifts to 2B.
Spent a high pick on Descalso last year, he profiles at 2B.
I fully expect #13 this year to be an easy sign slot guy….but as much as I like Weeks (consider him at #39)..just dont think that is good value.
if you look at trends, the cardinals are either going to take a raw, power armed college righty (lambert, ottavino) or a high school position player that is known for their for their feel for the game and is considered someone who loves the game (rasmus, kozma).
players that fit those profiles
raw college righties
brett hunter
tanner scheppers
shooter hunt
ryan perry
savvy high school player
harold martinez
kyle shipworth
robbie grossman
oops, make that skipworth. UB is going to kill me if he comes over here.
Can a brother get a LHP????
Please!
how about sign sabathia long term as your lefty and draft a slugger 3b or corner outfielder. CF, 1B, SS, 2B, C, SP, and Closer seem to be covered for the future (CF - Rasmus, 1B - Pujols, SS - Ryan/Kozma, 2b - Hoffpauir/J. Martinez, SP - Wainwright, Ottavino, Mortenson, Walters, Herron, Boggs, Garcia, CL - Perez/Motte). Corner outfielders and third basemen are the weekest positions in the orginization, imho. I just don’t see Freese or Craig as the Garret Atkins type, and I don’t see Duncan as a long term outfielder (trade). Ankiel could be a long-term right fielder, but we’ll see how he does over a full season of MLB pitching. Also, Arnoldi Cruz could be the 3b of the future if he continues to hit, so I say find the best hitting left fielder of the bunch because that is the one position we certainly don’t have anybody to fill in the long term.
tom, there usually aren’t many players in a draft that someone says “that guy is going to be a stud left fielder.” usually left fielders are guys that couldn’t cut it at other positions and are moved over later in their minor league career or after they get to the majors.
LF -
Agreed, it’s where you stick guys that don’t have the glove for 3B/CF/RF, but aren’t ready to me moved to 1B. (Kinda like Duncan).
So if Allen Craig can’t stick at 3B, does he have enough speed to move to LF? It doesn’t take much, and his bat might play there….
I have watched both Weeks and Adams play for many years, Weeks would be the better choice. Adams projection is that he is pretty much a 2nd base guy only. If you have no need for a 2nd bman, you have no need for Adams.
Also not so sure if Adams produced as well as expected this past summer? Anyone know?
Adams has the size and bat that he could probably move to 3B or LF if he really had to, but his glove is decent enough that he gives you a rarity..an middle of the order 2Bmen…just arent many around.
Adams actually had a decent Summer at the Cape
.302/.382/.420, 0 HR’s, 18 RBI’s
18 BB’s, 30 K’s…..9 for 14 in SB’s
Played 15 games at SS, but had 14 errors in 42 games overall…yuck!!!
But .302, .382 OB% in the Cape isnt all too bad….defense was.