I’ve been waiting to see this list for quite some time. I really like the format that Goldstein uses for his prospect lists. Well the time has come despite our alphabetically challenged city name. It’s a subscription article so we can’t just copy and paste but you can see the list and some interesting tidbits after the jump.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chris Perez, RHP
3. Bryan Anderson, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP
5. Jaime Garcia, LHP
6. Tyler Herron, RHP
7. Jose Martinez, SS
8. Peter Kozma, SS
9. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Joe Mather, OF
11. Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B
I really chuckled at the Bryan Anderson perfect world projection: the anti-yadier molina. A catcher that’s holding down the position for their offensive prowess as opposed to their defensive prowess.
The Cardinals lack a frontline starter within the system. Ottavino and Garcia are projected as mid-rotation and Herron towards the back of the rotation. Goldstein seems to take something of a pass on Mortensen saying that “Some like him as a starter, and some like him as a late-innings reliever.” That seems like a real platitude to me. “Some people like chocolate ice cream and some like vanilla.” OK. . .that doesn’t tell us a lot about the long term projection. It could be since Mortensen showed a disparate skill set between the Quad Cities and Batavia/college so Goldstein doesn’t have a definitive read. It also seems that the Cardinals are internally quite high on Mortensen compared to external observers. There’s still questions surrounding him in terms of skillset and projection but I would have liked to see a more decisive answer.
The perfect world projection for Kozma: “An average big-league shortstop who likely has to hit in the lower half of a lineup.” I can’t help but continue to hate this draft pick. Someday I’ll get over it. Hopefully. . .
Martinez is listed as a shortstop but Goldstein notes his lack of range to be an everyday shortstop in the bigs. The minor league fielding metrics bear this out to a certain extent. Martinez was average at SS but after league translations and aging curves for fielding (fielding peaks early) he’s probably a bit below average defensively relative to the majors. I’m simply not as sold on his offensive skillset and his ability to hit for power moving forward. Hoffpauir gets the nod at 11 but a less than glowing report. Erik, roarke and myself all prefer Hoffpauir to Martinez so take that for whatever it’s worth.
Truthfully, there’s not an immense amount of difference between Goldstein’s list and what we published earlier. The primary disputes appear to be a) the value of relievers and b) the value of Walters/Boggs. O and I’m not a Kozma fan.
Goldstein does exit with one swift kick to the groin concerning his evaluation of the Cardinals organization (farm and major league team):
It’s simple enough–-the Cardinals are a team going in the wrong direction, and to complicate matters, they don’t have much in the way of young talent. While Colby Rasmus has impact potential, one man alone can’t save the Cardinals’ future.
[cue silent weeping]
I think that’s something of an overstatement but I’m not sure to what degree. There’s a lot of middle-level filler talent but the organization lacks impact talent. Ithe mid-tier players don’t pan out, then the organization is going to have to build a team from free agency and I think everyone realizes that’s not the ideal situation.
Filed under: Prospect rankings
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I think it has become very fashionable to bash the Cards. I think there is some jealousy ala the Yankees, due to the Cards sustained level of success over the last 7-8 years. I think that many in the national press do not like LaRussa and are taking this opportunity to kick when they perceive the Cards to be down. Furthermore, I think that Walt Jocketty was very well liked by the press and with his departure it is open season on the Cards front office.
Therefore, I take many of these criticisms of the organization with a grain of salt…understanding that all writers are humans with their biases and petty jealousies. That is not to say that all criticism of the Cards organization is without merit…indeed the system does lack some impact talent…but the same can be said of nearly every organization. Star type talent is hard to find.
If enough middle tier players pan out the Cards can afford to add a couple of top starters and an impact bat via FA. Having a cheap closer will help.
One of Mo´s big challenges the next few years will be to turn some of that quantity of mediocre talent into 1 or more quality talents.
I still don’t understand how people already peg Mortensen as a reliever. He has very limited experience in pro ball, but he pitched very well in that time and shows to have a very good pitch in his sinker, and some at least decent off-speed pitches. Also, coupled with his high draft pick, even though people thought it was a reach, i would think more people would give him a chance.
Hoffpair is interesting. I’m not nearly sold on him. It seems like the only people really high on him are the Cardinal guys (guys on this site, vivaelbirdos, etc.). It doesn’t seem like any national guys see him as an everyday player. Outside of 2007–I understand that.
I like having four starters in the “three-star” prospect fold. I understand you need aces. But developing 2-3 younger #3/#4/#5 type starters saves you money—instead of paying middling guys 8 million a year you can use the money to get a top tier starter.
If two of the three of Ottavino, Garcia, Mortensen and Herron all pitch as middle-to-back end rotation guys I’m cool with that. You have a “still” young Wainwright and possibly Reyes which to build.
I’m certainly more optimistic about our pitchers than our position players. Outside of Rasmus and Anderson it’s hard for me to get too excited about any of our position prospects.
KG also noted just missing were Freese, Kopp and Todd. I found it interesting he named Kopp, whereas he missed BA’s top 30 and wasn’t in any other rankings. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in our top 10 next year.
i too am a little disappointed in KG’s consensus of the Cards, but I don’t think he’s in the “bash the Cards, it’s cool” mode. I know he does his homework and probably just isn’t thrilled with what he sees. I think he’s right in the fact that the Cardinals don’t have a ton of high impact guys, but there is a lot more now in terms of depth, thus BA has us ranked like #14 in overall talent now. We also have quite a few sleepers that could surprise but are more of an unknown quantity right now. A lot of variation in the outcomes. One thing is for sure, this next draft is going to be crucial.
Nicholas - You don’t see that same reaction to the Braves or even the Yankees when their farm systems are considered. He’s not bashing the Cardinals for the sake of bashing them. The Cardinals are struggling to restock a system that was dangerously low on talent circa 2004. They’ve caught some bad breaks (Hawksworth injuries, Reyes inability to put it together in the bigs) but this remains a farm system that’s middle of the pack at best.
Once Goldstein finishes his top 11 lists, I’m going to do some evaluations of how the organization rates in terms of top talent.
carioca - it’d be nice to have a Porcello in the organization though.
bret - one group (project prospect?) has Hoff ranked as the 8th best 2B prospect in baseball. So somebody likes him.
btw, the number that comes after 3 is 4
(Ottavino, Garcia, Mortenson, and Herron)
I think Goldstein, without really meaning to, made a pretty good argument that the Cards have a minor-league system on the rise:
* all-star center fielder
* good, potentially great closer
* starting catcher (somewhere, if not here)
* three mid-rotation starters
And that’s despite a contrarian opinion of Mortensen, whom the Cards seem to project as a #2 or 3 starter right now.
If Carp comes back and Wainwright continues the way he’s going, we have our 1-2 starters for 2009 and beyond, with the possibility of Mortensen and Garcia joining the rotation and Perez closing.
That’s not bad for an organization that has had the 28th or 30th pick in 5 of the last 7 drafts, and hasn’t picked in the top 10 since 1998.
AZ - You are right you do not see those same reactions to the Yankees and Braves farm systems, but that does not mean that personal bias is not creeping into these rankings and opinions.
First, the Yankees prospects and system are consistently over valued for the sole reason that they are the Yankees and everything associated with them is over publicized.
Second, the Braves have been the poster child for farm system development for a number of years and Schuerholz has been a media darling much like Billy Beane. Furthermore, the Braves have Bobby Cox at manager, whom everyone associated with the game loves (except home plate umpires), because of his easygoing personality and willingness to be open and honest (appearing) to the media.
Contrast those two situations with the TLR + Jocketty regime. First, STL is no New York. The media can slight the Cards and many less people are offended. Second, Jocketty, although respected and liked by media members, was not very quotable and his best moves were considered easy pickings because he picked up free agents who weren’t going to be re-signed by their current teams. Finally, almost no one in the media likes TLR. He is prickly and standoffish and he is a lawyer (kind of). I am sure that most in the media revel in the Cards failure so long as TLR remains the manager.
What does this have to do with prospect and farm system rankings? Well, the way I see it, you don’t just set down your personal biases against an organization just because you are talking about the farm system rather than the major league team. You are right in that the Cards system has been down for some time and needed to be rebuilt. This also plays into the thinking. I think Kevin Goldstein is a great writer and evaluator of minor league talent…I just don’t think that in these types of rankings, he and others like him can check their biases at the door and write objective evaluations. I also think that there is something of a herd mentality when it comes to evaluating prospects.
Sorry for the long comment, this has been sticking in my craw for some time.
Lou, agreed. I can’t believe how he still says that our minors are heading in the right direction. Even BA has finally started giving our farm credit, actually coming in at #13 (not 14) in the majors.
When I get home from work (tomorrow), I’ll take a look back to BA’s first published report on Rasmus. There was a reason, aside from the deep draft, that Rasmus was picked 28th overall. And I can tell you that it WASN’T because Goldstein and BA thought his chances coming out of high school, and becoming one of the Top 10 prospects IN THE GAME, was good. They had decent things to say about him, but they were wrong about his potential.
The same may be true for Kozma, but only time will tell. BA seems fairly accurate on him, Goldstein I think is way off the mark.
KCardinal - Here’s BA’s report on the first round of the 2005 draft:
28. Cardinals: Colby Rasmus, of, Russell County HS, Phenix City, Ala.
Rasmus’ tools grade out average or above across the board. He covers 60 yards in 6.7 seconds and has a plus arm, throwing fastballs up to 91 mph off the mound. Besides his tools, scouts love his maturity and savvy for the game. Some compare Rasmus to Steve Finley, while others believe he evokes Shawn Green; it depends on whether the scout believes Rasmus can stay in center field. He has a short, simple lefthanded swing that he repeats, and the barrel of the bat stays in the hitting zone a long time. While he could use a better load to his swing, he at times produces good leverage, leading scouts to believe he’ll hit for at least average power.
They seem to like McCutchen and Maybin a bit better than Rasmus and Bruce. That’s a pretty nice scouting report though. It’s not often that anyone at draft time is going to say that HS player X is going to be an all-star caliber player year-in-year-out. They make the Steve Finley comparison and grade his tools out as average or plus across the board. I don’t know how much farther they could reasonably predict him than to draw the comparison of an occasional all-star and down ballot MVP player. Maybe I’m misunderstanding your comment though. . .
i think you have to add a sleeper prospect….. i was recently watching a softball game and on the other side of the it they had a baseball diamond… and there was someone practing so anyways i was intrigued and i started to watch … after that i ask the kid what was his name and he said his last name was marmol…. so i looked him up and saw that the cards drafted him…. looked at his stats which were not that good … but boy must i say that this kid is gonna be FIRE….well that is all
Goldstein’s assessment of the organization is terse, a bit oversimplified, but generally accurate.
The big club is clearly in decline. As for our prospects, even if they pan out, they won’t be enough to rejuvenate the big league team ala the Brewers, D-backs, Rockies, etc. Even if we can internally generate an all-star Center Fielder, above average catcher and closer, and some league average pitchers, we’ll still need more talent - particularly in the middle infield and on the mound.
we also didn’t have the draft picks the brewers, d-backs, and rockies did. the brewers used nearly a decade’s worth of top 10 picks to get the impact players they added. the cardinals have made their progress with mostly picks in the 28-30 range.
I wasn’t surprised by KG assessment of the Cardinals. He’s been ridding the Cardinal’s farm system for well over a year. I believe the top three prospects are an indication that the Cardinals farm system is heading in the right direction…finally. A potential All-Star CF in Rasmus. The future closer in Perez. Finally, a trading chip with Anderson, who could bring in more prospects. Let’s be real for a minute, while La Russa is running the ship Molina isn’t going anywhere. I agree with most regarding the Kozma pick, it was an overdraft at that position.
This coming year will be very telling of the direction we can expect the Cardinals farm system to head under new management. A top 15 pick has the potential to make a splash. Let’s just hope The Birds open the check book!
i still don’t see how people can call it an overdraft. toronto said they were considering him at 16 and jim callis had him going 15th to the reds in his draft day mock draft.
Goldstein echos what others have said about Anderson. That he has an at best average arm.
No where have I seen what his glove to glove is. Does anyone know what it is? I’d rather be told that than “Oh he has an average arm. Trust me.”
I can’t believe anyone is comfortable calling a first-rounder an ‘overdraft’ based on second-hand scouting reports and a couple months of performance. Especially when it’s clear other teams were looking at him in the first round. Why not give the guy a year or two?
Anyway, I remember Tyler Colvin (Cubs) was widely regarded as the biggest overdraft/signability pick of the ‘06 first round. He’s still not an elite prospect, but since then he’s been better than some other players who were more highly regarded in that draft (such as toolsy Drew Stubbs)
There are curious omissions from Goldstein’s list. I can understand not including Brian Barton, because by definition he’s not a “minor-league” prospect; if he doesn’t stick with the major-league team, back to Cleveland he goes. Jason Motte is slightly harder to understand — maybe Goldstein rules him out by definition too, since he’s past his 25th birthday, but if not, he certainly looks more like a potential major-leaguer to me than some of the others do. Even overlooking Walters may be marginally defensible on the grounds that perfectly-controlled slow stuff may not play as well on the big stage as in the minors. But where on earth is Mitchell Boggs on this list? He doesn’t even make the Goldstein “Just Missing” list, which contains David Freese, David Kopp, and Jess Todd — none of whom strike me as being as likely to have a career as Boggs.
I usually think pretty highly of Kevin’s evaluations and feel that he does his homework, but it sure looks to me like he screwed up on this one. The same is true, on some level, of BP’s work on the Cardinals in general. Ever since Dayn Perry left BP, there hasn’t been anyone there who’s enough of a “Cards fan” to look incisively at what’s going on with the team. It’s a pity, because in many ways they’re still the best statistical analysts out there, they just have this one particular gap in their coverage that happens to correspond to our interest, and our passion.
Harknights - I wasn’t able to find any glove to glove times. Here’s what I did find:
1) MLB.com’s draft tracker: Aggressive hitter w/ good bat speed. Loft in swing w/ home run potential. Sure-handed receiver w/ quick release. Solid defensive tools w/ chance to hit for power.
2). Baseball America’s draft database: Lefthanded-hitting C Bryan Anderson, an Arizona recruit, had expectations of going in the top five rounds, but his offensive production fell off as he had little protection in the Simi Valley High lineup. Scouts say his throwing mechanics also regressed this spring—even as he threw out almost every basestealer. Anderson can swing the bat well enough if a position switch is in order, but his lack of speed may limit his options.
3). The part that I find odd is that Goldstein made no comment of Anderson having a subpar arm back in July when he was ranking catchers. He said: “Defensively, Anderson is neither plus nor deficient in any area”. Now it sounds an awful lot like he’s saying that he is deficient defensively.
I guess I’m not entirely sure where Goldstein is coming from re: Anderson although I could believe it either way.
Thanks AZ
From what I see Goldstein is falling into the old idea that catchers that can hit must have something wrong with them. If he could say that Andersons CS rate is going down then that is a place to start. Even then with out pointing out Anderson’s glove to glove and go from there any statment will lack an important fact. What is funny is the detail he goes into as to why Anderson wont hit for power.
I think Goldstein’s a little low on the system, but not terribly so. Luhnow and co have done a pretty great job of bringing in a lot of solid, depth style talent, but there hasn’t really been many impact players brought in. Understandable, considering lower draft positions and ownership’s unwillingness to make any significant waves in terms of slot money, but still, it is what it is.
I will say, though, I was a little disappointed also in his evaluation of Mortenson; c’mon kid, have an opinion! I also think that pundits are still underestimating Jaime Garcia. I’m not sure exactly what they’re looking for, but he seems to have an awful lot going for him, in my eyes at least.
I don’t think overdraft is the right word for Kozma. He was probably a mid to late first rounder; the problem is the guys the Cards passed over to take him. Porcello, Main, Alderson, and Poreda all would have been better picks, I think. But calling Kozma an overdraft is misleading.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: this is an unusually deep farm system, but until the organisation stops playing it so conservatively at the top of the draft, it will likely remain relatively low impact.
Overall, though, a fairly accurate, if slightly too pessimistic, prospect review.
To answer Harknights question, a while ago in an interview, Anderson said his pop-to-pop time was about 1.9. That interview is from over a year ago, and I don’t know if it’s improved since then.
i agree that porcello, main, and probably alderson were better picks, but there is no way i would have taken poreda over kozma. sure he has a great fastball for a lefty, but he has no other pitches and his mechanics are terrible. i have read reports that are already calling him a reliever and not even a closer.
Goldstein’s a good guy (I communicated with him a few times, a couple years back), and usually well-informed, but I think he’s off target in his criticisms of Rasmus, as well as a few other things. (1)KG implies that Rasmus derived some hitting advantage from his home park in ‘07. He didn’t. (2)KG, just like a year ago, badly overstates Colby’s failings against LHP’s. There’s a platoon difference, but Rasmus has hit southpaws just fine. (3)KG criticizes Colby’s glove in CF…but the kid was picked as the Best Defensive Outfielder and Best Outfield Arm in his league, so I’d say his work with the leather is probably a big plus.
According to the fielding metrics of the very respected Dan Fox at Baseball Prospectus, shortstop Jose Martinez actually had a terrific year defensively–with both Palm Beach and Springfield. Except for his time in the Florida State League, Martinez has consistently shown above average power for a shortstop throughout the minors. (And he’s always been the right age for his league, or young.)
I’d love to hear why 3B Allen Craig didn’t make Kevin’s top 11. According to the numbers of BP’s own Dan Fox again, Craig was slightly above average with the glove in 2007. And he murdered the baseball, despite playing in the worst hitter’s park, in a bad league for batters. (Allen homered 15 times in fewer than 200 true road AB’s, which is extraordinary for the Florida State League.)
Jaime Garcia is a rare talent, not merely a potential mid-rotation guy. Find another minor league starter who struck out a batter an inning, while compiling a GB/FB ratio of better than 2-1. You’ll look a long time. Oh yeah, and Garcia was pitching in AA at age 20, of course. That’s a wow.
The Cards have a top-5 system. Period. Maybe second only to Tampa Bay. A lot of the value is in Rasmus, sure, but there is a ton of quality depth that folks like Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein just don’t see yet. (And no, I don’t think it’s because Jim Callis, John Manuel, and Kevin Goldstein are Chicagoans. Well, OK, maybe just a little.)
Bob - This isn’t a top-5 system. It’s really not even close to a top-5 system. A lot of the depth that you are talking about doesn’t project as everyday players. The Cardinals are stocked on utility players and some questionable position players but the lack of impact talent is pretty glaring.
Red Baron - That seems like a pretty dangerous deficit where the Cardinals always have serviceable but never great players. They’re going to be hard pressed to find impact players on the FA market. And we’re assuming that most of this mid-level talent pans out. It’s really easy for those prospects to all go bust and then the farm would look terrible. So many of the Cardinal prospects have caveats attached to their projection that it worries me.
azruavatar - Totally agreed. The teams at the top are bringing impact talent out of their systems and filling out their rosters with league average free agents, ie. Tigers, D-backs, even the Red Sox to a degree. The limitation of the Cards system is that it’s stacked with guys who project around league average, leaving us to seek impact players via the free agent market.
That’s the only thing that concerns me about our drafts, especially passing on the likes of Porcello - it seems like we’re still not prioritizing high-upside guys like we need to. But it’s true we haven’t had high picks, and Luhnow and Co. know a lot more about these guys than I do, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Wow. I think about 10 to 15 other teams may have something to say about that, including Texas, Boston, NYY, LAD…should I go on? I like our system better then before, but Top 5? really???
You can make the case that ‘average’ players are the ones who are grossly overpaid on the free agent market, while elite players get what they deserve. ‘Average’ prospects can be very helpful for a winning team… assuming management has the money for star talent on the free agent market. That’s the catch.
I would really like the see the Cards go after impact STARTING PITCHING in the draft. And I mean guys who project out to be LEGIT #1 or #2 starters. I think that if you can draft & develope top tier pitching you have a lot of flexibility. Just look at the big trades in the game and generally there is a very good young pitcher in the trade.
Erik & Az are the experts about this stuff. I am curious if STL is going to change draft strategy and try to get a few young HS arms who have high ceilings?
IC-I’m not sure the Cardinals will ever take a HS pitcher in the first round. I think in this year’s draft they take a hitter, either a high ceiling type high schooler like Harold Martinez. Or they will take a big time college hitter. that’s the strength of this year’s draft. there isn’t a college pitcher who projects as a top of the rotation starter that will be available at 13, at least in my own estimation.
The Cards are not a top-5 system. I think that ranking them in the middle of the pack is appropriate. The problem I have with Goldstein and his ilk is that I think they have a pack mentality when it comes to rating individual players…rather than taking the time to really assess the individual player’s strengths and weaknesses. I think we are seeing this in regards to Anderson. “His defense needs some work but he is still only 20″ has become “he won’t stick at catcher because he can’t play defense.” Furthermore, none of this analysis is ever backed up with any stats.
I think that if Tim Melville is available at #13, the Cards will take him. He has nice polish for his age and he is a hometown kid. If the Cards are ever going to take a HS pitcher in the first round, I think Melville is the one.
birdo - You can make the case that ‘average’ players are the ones who are grossly overpaid on the free agent market, while elite players get what they deserve.
I agree with that statement. I even think that to a certain extent the star talents are underpaid. The problem is that the MLB is a pyramid in terms of talent. There’s a lot more average talent available than there is top-tier talent. With the Cardinals missing out on players like Burnett in recent years it concerns me about their ability to bring that in via the FA market.
First, the Cardinals aren’t going to hand the reins to a bunch of average ceiling prospects. They’re still stuck in the veteran mode. Unless they’re willing to stop giving playing time to marginal free agents, having all these kinda useful prospects isn’t going to do anything. I really hope that they transition away from that mindset but color me skeptical.
erik, they almost took a high school pitcher in the first round last year. there were several people in the draft room quoted as saying blake beaven was their guy, but the rangers took him the pick before ours.
that’s true, i forgot about beavan. good catch, fgc
If we look at the complete minor and major league records of all professional ballplayers over the past couple of decades, we find that position players who will eventually become average-to-above-average MLB regulars have an overwhelming tendency to fall into one of 4 categories:
1) Great and just a year old for their league (Allen Craig).
2) Very Good and age-appropriate (Hoffpauir in AAA, Jose Garcia in the Appy League).
3) Good and one year young (Martinez in AA, Riportella in the Appy, Edgar Lara in the GCL).
4) Just OK, but multiple years young (Bryan Anderson).
That’s just off the top of my head, though; hope I haven’t forgotten anyone–and I’m leaving out the VSL & DSL teens, of course. No All-Stars (except maybe Craig), but plenty of Quality depth.
Rasmus is the best prospect in baseball. A 1.050+ OPS over the 2nd half says so. A line of .350/.460/.780 with a 35/36 BB/K ratio over his final 220 plate appearances confirms it. The young man has a better chance at superstardom than Jay Bruce or anybody else–and only bad health can prevent his being at least a star. (Not really making a point with that…I just enjoy typing it.
)
Azru: the minor league fielding metrics that “confirm” Martinez is only average at SS…what are those? All I’ve heard about are Dan Fox’s at Baseball Prospectus, and they show (both in the FSL and Texas Leagues) that Martinez is elite defensively at short. Thanks!
the minor league fielding metrics that “confirm” Martinez is only average at SS…what are those? All I’ve heard about are Dan Fox’s at Baseball Prospectus, and they show (both in the FSL and Texas Leagues) that Martinez is elite defensively at short.
You’re right. I’m not sure what I was thinking of but SFR really liked Martinez. Calling him elite seems to be just as much of an overstatement as me calling him average though. The metric shows he’s an above average SS. This is one of those times I’m going to disagree with the metric as I remain unsold on his defensive prowess but that’s my subjective opionion based on what I’ve seen of him — the metric doesn’t back me up on that.
Oops, typo. Colby Rasmus’ final 220 PA’s look like this: .350/.460/.720 (not .780 slg.). (This is including his triumphant stint with Team USA–which actually brings the numbers down somewhat.)
One nugget about Card pitchers. The three starting pitchers in full-season minors who fanned at least 8 per 9 IP in 2007, while walking fewer than 2? Reds elite prospect Johnny Cueto, and our own P.J. Walters and Tyler Herron. Just a fun stat.
bob-cueto is 21, throws 93-96, and has a plus slider and changeup. not to mention, according to scouts, he pitches like a 10 year veteran. cueto is one of the best pitchers in the minors, and is just a step away from throwing in the bigs. how you can compare him to walters or herron is a little puzzling to me. both have their fine qualities (control) but that’s a stretch. a big stretch.
In John Sickels’ Q & A, he’s asked what type of future he sees for Craig.
“I like Craig a lot and rate him as a big sleeper in the book. Not sure where he fits defesnively, but I like his power a great deal and I think he will continue to hit at higher levels. Very much an unsung prospect.”
Just wanted to show that both Herron and Walters did something quite rare in 2007. Like I said, just a fun stat.
I do think, though, that Herron hasn’t received enough attention–and that Walters is a perfectly viable MLB #4 starter by 2010 or so.
Azru: thanks for responding to my earlier remarks. No reason, I guess, for us to quibble over whether saving 3 runs a month is “elite” or just “above average” for a shortstop. Either way, it’s something of a revelation to see Dan Fox grade Martinez’ defense so solid at *both* the high-A and AA levels (which is a big part of why I think the numbers are legit).
Is it Jose’s range, or his arm strength you find lacking? (What out for those subjective judgements…Joe Morgan loves Derek Jeter’s defense.
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His range. He’s not very fast and while the “first step” seemed adequate, it didn’t strike me as making for a good SS. His arm seemed fine for SS and he makes the plays when he gets to the ball; it’s just a matter of how many balls he’s going to get to.
Gotcha, thanks Azru. Have you seen much of Hoffy & Allen Craig? They both look fine by the SFR methodology….
Fun AA shortstop comparison for Card fans: Reid Brignac (b. 1/86) v. Jose Martinez (b. 1/86)
Defense: Brignac +5 runs in 2007, Martinez +15
Offense: Brignac OPS 26 points above his league, Martinez 63 points.
Walk/strikeout ratio: Brignac .59, Martinez .58
Brignac is a unanimous top 50 overall prospect, therefore I’d say Martinez…well, at least deserves a closer look. Much closer.
Thanks, Charlie, for the John Sickels insight about Allen Craig.
p.s. Cards are *still* a top 5 system. Woo-hooo! (In Homer Simpson voice.)
“p.s. Cards are *still* a top 5 system. Woo-hooo! (In Homer Simpson voice.)”
Just keep telling yourself that.
I think you can take stats and make them say what you want to hear. I’m certainly not disparaging of stats, but you can come up with some “misnomers” if you will when you evaluate farm systems on them alone. i use them a ton, but i prefer to go by the eyes and projectabilitly.
Bob, I can tell you are big on stats, but I wonder if you would have said some of the same things about Nick Stavinoha after ‘05 and Trey Hearne in ‘06. That said, I like your optimism, and I have to admit that a big part of the Cardinals’ run this entire decade has been getting huge performances seemingly out of nowhere(Williams, Carpenter, Womack, Duncan, Kinney, Ankiel, even Pujols to an extent). I’m not saying Mike Ferris is ever going to win an MVP award, but I can see how you could expect maybe a few impact talents to emerge that maybe others are tempering their excitement on.
My vote: top 16 system, not top 5.
Stavinoha was *three* years old for his league, when he had his great partial year in the Midwest League. Therefore, his accomplishment was very nearly meaningless. If you’d asked me then, that’s what I’d have said. (Similarly, Joe Mather’s AA “breakout” in 2007 is quite possibly meaningless–because of Joe’s age, as well as his lack of previous success.)
Trey Hearne? Two years old for his league in ‘06, mediocre strikeout numbers, too many HR’s allowed, and just 128 innings. Not a prospect, even with the low, low ERA in 2006. And that’s what I’d have said then, too.
Thanks a lot for mentioning Mike Ferris, by the way, who the Cards picked just 5 spots before the Red Sox chose Dustin Pedroia. Aaaaaargh! You really know how to hurt a guy.
Yup. Cards. Top 5. Keep taunting me, and I’ll say they’re number two behind only Tampa Bay…and I’ll assault you with at least 17 reasons why.
Gotcha, thanks Azru. Have you seen much of Hoffy & Allen Craig? They both look fine by the SFR methodology….
I’m hopeful that Dan Fox is going to run translations for between the leagues. At first I was skeptical about how fielding would translate between levels but the more I think about it, the more I think the relative baseline for each level is going to be significantly better. That is to say Hoff and Craig looking average/neutral at lower levels wouldn’t look that way in the majors. But that’s largely speculation until Fox does the leg work.
Farm systems that are definitively better than the Cardinals (imo):
Rays
Red Sox
Rangers
Braves
Reds
Dodgers
azru,
What I am essentially saying is that, while they gave him a good review, they, at the time, had underestimated his capabilities. The Cardinals, either by luck or design, knew that they liked Bruce #1 on their board, then Rasmus #2…. most rank them very closely like that in the overall minors now (Rasmus b/w #3 and 7 for most).
So either the Cardinals knew better than most all others concerning Rasmus, and others were behind (BA), or they just got lucky. In any case, BA did not recognize his potential being *this* high. All I am saying is that Kozma may have a ceiling higher than what they project for him, and may end up more like a Renteria-type in the future, making him a very good pick (even if we did pass on Porcello). Maybe the Cardinals realize this and it will just take time for his production to prove it.
One would imagine that the Cardinals hold Kozma in a higher regard than most of the analysts we read because I haven’t seen anyone that projects his ceiling as more than an average SS.
I still hate the pick. But I hated the Mortensen pick and I’ve softened up on that. . .there was a lot of talent left on the board for the Cardinals pick. Time will tell if they made the right decision.
Just an interesting bit on Kozma from Callis:
Derek (wisconsin): Best SS prospect in the NL Central? Kozma?
SportsNation Jim Callis: Good question . . . Yes, Pete Kozma (Cardinals) would be the pick for me. I’m not a huge Alcides Escobar (Brewers) fan, and Todd Frazier (Reds) will move off short at some point.
I’d also put the A’s, the Rockies, and the Yankees ahead of the Cards.
Others can make a decent argument for the Orioles (post-Bedard trade), Padres, and Nationals.