Note by Erik-fewgoodcards has agreed to help us take an in-depth look at the 2008 draft. I asked him to help out with the draft, because he’ s really up on amateur players, much more so then I. FGC, myself and maybe others will all be collaborating on our take on the draft over the next few months. Enjoy part one of FGC’s series.
It has been a long time, but baseball is almost back. With pitchers and catchers reporting last week, and the college season kicking off on Friday we thought it would be a perfect time to start our draft coverage. This year we are hoping to provide more in depth draft coverage than last year so that you will have a good idea of what prospects are available when the Cardinals make their highest selection since 2000 in June. Look for profiles, rankings, and updates on all the top prospects as we move closer to draft day and hopefully the addition of the next Colby Rasmus or Chris Perez to the Cardinals’ system.
Scouting directors around baseball are excited because of the incredible depth this draft has to offer, but as the season approaches the strength of this draft is the number of quality college bats at the top. While some of the top guys don’t play the premier positions, they do offer impact bats that should be able to produce runs in the middle of a big league lineup. In this first installment I will profile Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, and Justin Smoak. These three are widely considered to be the best three bats in college baseball and are all considered locks to go in the top 15 picks.
Pedro Alvarez 3B L/R Vanderbilt 6’2” 225 lbs. DOB: 2/6/87
Alvarez put himself on the map with a monster freshman season and has been the favorite to go #1 in the 2008 draft ever since. He is the most complete hitter available since Alex Gordon in 2005, and he may be an even better prospect because he has more power. Alvarez has incredible bat speed that he uses to rifle line drives all over the diamond, and his power rivals that of anyone in the draft. He also has a good eye at the plate and draws a lot of walks. He is a solid defender at third, but there are some concerns about his athleticism and he could eventually have to slide over to first base. His strikeout numbers are a bit high, but that is due to him going deep in every count and shouldn’t really be a concern if he can become more aggressive early in the count. Alvarez should settle in as a middle of the order run producer and could become one of the best hitters in baseball.
Yonder Alonso 1B L/R Miami (FL) 6’2” 215 lbs. DOB: 4/8/87
Alonso may be the most polished bat available in this year’s draft. He combines incredible plate discipline with the ability to hit for both average and power. That batting eye enabled him to lead the Cape Cod League in walks this summer and post a .519 on base percentage for Miami last spring. His smooth, compact stroke allows him to hit line drives all over the field, and he showed the ability to turn on a pitch leading Miami with 18 homeruns last spring. A decent athlete for his size, Alonso stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, and if he could get in better shape and show the ability to play the outfield he could be a top 5 pick in June.
Justin Smoak 1B B/L South Carolina 6’3” 200 lbs. DOB: 12/5/86
Smoak is a switch-hitter with huge power from both sides of the plate. He also has a disciplined approach that should lead to a high on base percentage. Smoak may not hit for the same average as Alvarez or Alonso, but he may have the most power of the three. He is a fairly good athlete for his size and is a potential gold glover at first due to his soft hands and quick feet. Smoak projects as a clean-up hitter capable of producing 35-40 homers a year, and he shouldn‘t have to spend much time in the minors.
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft | Tagged: 2008 draft, Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
FGC and all,
Since the Cards have a chance to get a real difference-maker this year, what are the chances of taking someone who could possibly end up in AAA or above as fast as this year? I know this is a foreign idea to St. Louis most of the time, and I may be in the minority on this. But I could really use a shot in the arm with the 08 Draft.
AAA or above this year? doubtful. most guys that can actually move that fast hold out and don’t get the required time in to actually advance that far the first summer. the only way that could happen is if they take another college closer, but i don’t think you will see them do that with the 13th pick.
however, there are guys that could be available that could contribute quickly. any of the three guys mentioned above are going to move fast as are guys like aaron crow, brian matusz, christian friedrich, and jacob thompson.
one thing to remember, the fast movers don’t always turn out being the best players. just look at the 2005 draft, guys like craig hansen and joey devine made the major leagues that year, but now guys like jay bruce and colby rasmus look like much better players even though it is going to take them 3 years longer to reach the major leagues. i think the important thing is to get the best player available. if that is a high school kid that is going to take 3 or 4 years to reach the majors you have to go that direction. i would rather wait the extra couple years on a guy that could be a #2 starter or all-star position player than get the quick fix with a #4-5 starter or average position player.
Nice job, FGC.
Personally, I highly doubt any of these players reach the Cards at 13, and they wouldn’t be my first choice anyway. I like Alonso; as you said, he has enough athleticism that he could possibly play in the outfield somewhere, but I think both of the others are limited and will end up career first sackers. All have the bat to still excel, don’t misunderstand me. Given the choice, though, I prefer to draft players at premium positions first; if they prove not to be able to stick there long term, you can always move a guy to a less demanding position.
All three of these players could be offensive monsters, though.
i don’t think any of them will be there either, but you never know. however, if they all have good seasons and one of them is available it will be pretty hard to pass on someone that can hit like that. we all assume albert is going to be around forever, but you never know what can happen and it wouldn’t hurt to have somebody like that in the system. even if they don’t fit with the team, you can always trade a slugger. another thing, at this point last year who would have thought matt laporta would be drafted as a left fielder?
Yes, yes. Matt LaPorta was drafted as a left fielder. That does not, however, make him a left fielder.
I love Alonso, and think he could play LF. You take him if he’s there IMO.
I’d also love Friedrich, but doubt he gets past Oakland.
Let’s just go for upside this year, as opposed to quick fix.
Alonso and Smoak… c’mon look at the numbers, for College career. Allan Dykstra has better numbers than both. Including Walks and KO’s, and Slugging and OBP and OPS, and HR/AB and HBP. All this and Dykstra doesn’t have half the support in his line-up the others do. Plus his physical size is imposing….
Check the numbers but last year with Willy Fox in the line-up Dykstra was hitting around .375 and then when Fox was hurt teams pitched around Dykstra.
Then check the Cape stats… at the time Playoffs were still at stake. On Aug 5th when Chatham beat Brewster to Clinch a playoff spot… Dykstra had a higher Batting Average than Alonso, and if you add HBP, Dykstra’s total is only 4 behind Alonso and with 22 less PAs
ALL college Games
Player 2007 AVG GP PA AB R H 2B 3B HR PA/HR RBI TB SLG% OPS BB HBP SO OB% All Bases All/PA
Pedro Alvarez, .359 130 613 512 146 184 36 4 40 12.80 132 348 .680 1.140 97 1 129 .460 446 .728
Allan Dykstra .316 118 566 411 99 130 32 1 33 12.45 116 263 .640 1.119 108 33 65 .479 404 .714
Justin Smoak .310 132 610 504 125 156 34 0 39 12.92 135 307 .609 1.027 94 5 79 .418 406 .666
Yonder Alonso .333 127 577 454 105 151 31 1 28 16.21 143 268 .590 1.034 96 9 68 .444 373 .646
ACC Games Career
Player 2007 AVG GP PA AB R H 2B 3B HR PA/HR RBI TB SLG% OPS BB HBP SO OB%
Allan Dykstra .304 59 281 204 47 62 16 1 13 15.69 55 119 .583 1.050 51 18 38 .466
Yonder Alonso .274 60 275 219 44 60 14 0 12 18.25 62 110 .502 0.895 45 3 26 .393
dykstra is very good, and he has a ton of power, but he is more of an end of the first round or supplemental round guy. he is in the next group of first basemen with brett wallace.
Alvarez got an injury today during warmups for the Arizona State game…It seems minor right now.