Without preface and in arbitrary order -
Mitchell Boggs - PECOTA’s not a big fan of Boggs projecting an ERA in the 5.00s for next year if he were to pitch in the big leagues. Upside - <10
Jaime Garcia - PECOTA’s favorite starter and why shouldn’t it be. With the news from Goold that Garcia’s elbow is all better, we can hope for a bounce back year. I still won’t be comfortable till he’s thrown around 50 innings, but I’m somewhat risk averse. Garcia could hold his own next year according to PECOTA with a projected ERA of 4.82. Upside ~ 50
Blake Hawksworth - For a player in AA with as much time in the minors as Hawksworth, we’d expect the projection to be more accurate. A mid-5 ERA isn’t a very rosy projection. He could be servicable as a 5th starter. . . . . except we already have about 3 of those. Upside ~ 10
Tyler Herron - He’s not ready for the majors and PECOTA seems awfully conservative on his upside but it does have him down as a 75% chance to improve next season. Upside < 10
Mark McCormick - Another player with a 70+% improve rate although nothing else very nice. Upside ~15
Clayton Mortensen - PECOTA is a moderate fan. For a pitcher who was just drafted and threw something like 40 innings in low-A he received the second highest upside for a starter. That’s not to say he’s blowing anyone out of the water but perhaps its some statistical fuel for the STL scouts fire. Upside > 30
Tyler Norrick - Not a fan. A 35+% collapse rate (only the relievers top 25) for someone so low in the system is not a good sign. Upside < 10
Adam Ottavino - While he has less than a 50% improvement rate, I’ll be interested to hear what KevinGoldstein has to say in the STL Top 11. I’m still a believer in Ottavino. Upside ~ 15
Chris Perez - Projecting an ERA under 4, PECOTA things he’s the best reliever besides Springer in the pen. It’s not so high on his future with a 47% collapse rate. Perhaps a song for when he enters the game:
And I would walk 500 miles
And I would walk 500 more
To be the man who walked 1,000 miles
To fall down at your door
Sorry, that was mean of me. Upside ~ 55
Mark Worrell - I think PECOTA’s projection is high because if Worrell is in the pen, La Russa is almost sure to employ him in matchup situation. He’s projected at mid-4 but I think he could beat that handily. Upside < 30
For an “upside” frame of reference: Joba Chamberlain ~ 190, Yovani Gallardo ~ 190, Phil Hughes ~ 130, Clayton Kershaw ~ 100, Edison Volquez (whom the Reds picked up in the Hamilton trade) ~ 80
The Cardinal pitching prospects don’t really approach the elite upside levels yet. Garcia and Mortensen are two that could rocket up the list quickly next offseason, in my estimation.
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erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
That’s cold Azru…. That’s cold…. :/
Azru,
I hope one day you have to eat every word about Perez !
And choke on it !
I’d love to see Perez improve his control. I’m certainly not rooting against him.
I don’t know what’s worse: making the mean joke about Perez, or that you had to quote a Proclaimers song to do it.
Perez could be the most, ahem, “exciting” reliever in St. Louis since Hraboski left. I think we are going to have a lot of fun watching this guy. All of us that think Izzy makes saves an adventure are going to need a lot of antacid for this guy’s career.
I personally cant wait to watch him throw. There’s something definately exciting about watching a guy pitch when no-one, including him, knows where the ball will end up.
BTW, Eric, that new pic of you makes you look like a real stud! That last one wasn’t very flattering.
Hell, you look like a guy that has some serious potential. You ever think about playing a little outfield?
BB Digest had an article in which they showed that pitchers with higher walk rates had lower era s. I don’t remember the sample size or who they compared.
But pitchers with higher walk rates generally have better velocity, and there is definately a correlation between velocity and resultant ERA. I wander if these same same higher-velocity pitchers have higher walk rates. I would guess so, but I have no evidence to corroborate that assertion.
If they do, then the Digest article will most likely be a second method to correlate velocity with ERA rather than walk rates with ERA.
check out derrick goold’s article on the pitcher mini-camp that is going on for perez, garcia, boggs, ottavino, walters, and mortensen right now. the cardinals are going all carlos gomez on their pitchers.
yeah, i saw that. i liked it. you’ll see my 2 cents about that tomorrow or later tonight
On the Goold article, Tim Leveque happened to be my head coach when I played with Pittsfield in the NECBL two summers ago. So I know exactly what types of things they are going over at this camp. Its actually really interesting that they have finally begun to use video over the entire organization. I had some of this done while I played under Tim Leveque with my mechanics and to see the changes and how it feels is really impressive. At that time, Leveque was an independent draft consultant to the Cardinals regarding the mechanics of potential draft picks, and he would rant to me all the time about Ottavino, as he was their “poster boy” for being mechanically sound in the 2006 draft. I think they had only rated Colten Willems as having better mechanics for pitchers of that draft.
Imagine if Perez fixed his control problems over the break. Dude seriously has some nasty stuff. I hope he makes the roster this year.
here is the article about k/bb ratios and e.r.a. s
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/k-bb-ratios-does-it-matter-how-a-pitcher-does-it/