It’s a crucial season upcoming for Tyler Greene.
Background
A top high school player, the Atlanta Braves drafted Tyler Greene in the 2nd round in ‘02. Either he really prized a college education or thought he could do better, so he opted to go to Georgia Tech. He hit .431 in the Pan Am games, showing a knack for hitting with wood. He also was named the 2nd best prospect in the Cape Cod League in 2004. Despite having good showings in the summer, his NCAA career was marked by inconsistencies.
His close up came as a junior, when he hit .372/.460/.584 with 31 in 32 tries steals in 61 games, but also struck out 71 times in 269 at bats. He was rated the 40th best prospect going into the draft by Baseball America but was considered more of a high risk/high reward type of player. There was some concern regarding whether or not his swing would translate to the pros. The Cardinals felt confident that they had done their homework and took him as the 30th pick of the ‘05 draft. He signed for $1.1 M.
Scouting
We’ll start with the pluses here: The man is highly athletic. Scouts rate his speed as a 60 to 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He rarely gets caught stealing and will take an extra base. Greene’s speed plays to his advantage in the field, as he has good range, nice hands and the best infield arm in the system. He also has some power. The big fat negative is that his plate discipline is a mess. He struggles to make contact and is overly aggressive. He has a hard time adjusting to breaking pitches. He also tends to get pull happy. Greene dislocated his kneecap in the middle of last season and missed the 2nd half, and I have wonder if that will effect his speed.
Stats
Let’s start off with the positives again:
- That’s a nice gain in his extra base hit rate and isolated power last season and the season before with QC.
- He’s a very effective base stealer.
- A huge improvement made in his line drive rate is a good sign.
- Greene is a good fielder, saving the team 8 runs with his glove according to Dan Fox’s Simple Fielding Runs.
Negatives
- Strikeouts. That’s obvious. It’s highly unlikely he will ever hit for average.
- I can live with lots of strikeouts with that power/speed combo. The big problem is he doesn’t walk enough to offset the damage done by the K’s.
- Greene was actually demoted from Palm Beach to Quad Cities in 2006; word is his turnaround can be attributed to him seeing more fastballs. Whatever confidence he gained there was undone by not hitting in AA. There were some reasons to hope he was turning it around with the % of extra base hits and the increase in line drive rate, but the knee injury didn’t help his progress.
- His PEAK translated EqA line is .238/ .293/.436.
The Future
Greene is still pretty raw and you really don’t want to have to say that about a 24 year old. His power/speed/fielding skills are tantalizing, but his lack of plate discipline may limit him to being a utility man or worse. I think his floor is former Cardinal farmhand John Nelson. He could turn out to be another Alex Gonzalez, but with stolen bases. Other then that they look the same: Low average, low OBP, slick glove and some occasional power. A good comparison we can maybe hope for is Jose Valentin. Valentin’s no star, but he’s been in the game forever because of his glove and his power, even though he’s not a big source of OBP. If Greene is still playing in his late 30’s like Valentin he’ll have a good reason to be pretty proud.
Filed under: Tyler Greene, prospect profiles
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Problem i see with this is we drafted him 30th overall. If his upside due to his low OBP/avg. is Jose Valentin then the pick can already be deamed a failure.
But he wasn’t our first pick either. I look at his pick as a supplemental pick. Probably an overdraft but at the time he was also a SS so they might have been hoping he could stay there.
I still don’t think it was a bad pick at 30. It’s just one that probably won’t work out. I think you have to take some chances in the early rounds when the sure things are gone and you have someone with power, speed and defense there for the taking. You have to assume/hope that the right coaching could close the gaps in his game particularly when the major gap is pitch selection. I’m hoping that the emphasis on that part of the game that the Cards seem to be taking is expressed more in the development process than in the drafting process. It seems like taking a walk is something that could be taught to any player willing to improve himself.
Tyler Greene is the Caucasian version of former Cub Jose Hernandez
good comparison, Picklefork.
I’d be interested in seeing what Greene’s “calculated” batting average would be based on his based on his line drive rate. Seems like his BABIP is a bit low given his LD rate last year. All in all a 760 OPS out of an inexperienced (even if 23) AA shortstop is reason for optimism in my book. He is heavy on the tools so late bloomer is the hope right. My guess is that you would have to move Martinez to AAA and keep Greene at AA. Big year from Mr. Greene but I hold out alot of “late bloomer” hope…
It would be the best case scenario for us. I the other shortstops in the system but they have low ceilings relative to Greene. It would be great if he could turn the corner this year and make that position unnecessary to fill for a few years.
I was surprised when I saw Tyler’s picture; I thought he was black. I have no idea what that says about me, just thought I’d mention it.
Hugo, you implied that he will not stay at SS. Is this just your opinion or is that the general consensus? I’ve always heard his defense was a strength.
A question for anyone: Is his defense/speed combo enough by itself for him to make it as a bench player in the majors without any improvements in plate discipline?
If Greene could hit .260 with 15 to 20 HR’s and steal 30 SB’s…you can live with the 150K’s b/c of his defense and all around athletiscm….but I am not sure he is going to be able to hit .260
Bobby Crosby is the same way, with more power and less speed…..his other namesake in SD Khalil Greene is kind of the same way…his defense and pop allows for the low BA and K’s
I still hold out hope that Greene will figure out that swinging from your heels on every pitch isnt the best way to get on base….he has all the tools.
Again, I am all for drafting talent and skill even if its raw….but when you do that..draft it when they are 18, not 21 or 22.
Love that last sentiment, Picklefork. Draft the ceiling, draft the talent, but get the guys earlier. Get them into your system, learning to play your way, as soon as possible.
Greene’s problem is his home park, coupled with his BIP tendencies. He’s a monster on the road.
i see people saying he was an overdraft and rated 40th overall by baseball america, but something not many people are mentioning is that he was named the best position prospect on the cape the summer before his junior season and he was considered a top 10 pick heading into the spring.
the tools are exciting, but i would have rather drafted travis buck with that pick. looking back now the obvious pick was jed lowrie, but at that time he had never shown an ability to hit with good, he didn’t have a very good college season, and no one thought he could play short. personally, i liked greene better. the one shortstop that probably would have been a great choice is yunel escobar. there was some talk then that the red sox were considering him right before us, but not many teams got a look at him and cuban defectors haven’t made the greatest transition so i can see the concern.
i still think tyler has the ability to put it together (and he was starting to heat up when he got hurt last year) and become a 20-20 type shortstop even if he only hits .240 or .250.
haltz
sorry but the data doesn’t back you up
home-.237/.288/.491
road-.249/.311/.422
erik- I think he meant Khalil Greene. I dunno if those are career numbers, but for ‘07 Khalil hit .216/.258/.412 at PETCO and .288/.322/.519 on the road.
I read speculation that Greene may have to rework his swing because the current swing puts too much stress (torque) on the kneecap. It will be interesting to see the results if this hapens. (less K´s? less power?)
well, that would make sense then.
Erik…
Sorry to use this format to reply to your email from Sunday night, but I think either my replies aren’t getting to you or I’m not getting your replies to my replies. I’m fine with your request - i fyou could call my via our office number we’ll figure out a way to handle the request. Thanks…