Rounding up Redbird notes from around the net.
This first one’s not related to the Cardinal organization directly but I think a) it’s something to keep in mind when reading comments from the Cardinal staff and b) it’s something some people in the organization still need to learn. Over at his blog, Keith Law said:
I worked in a front office; when I was asked on the record about any of our prospects, I raved about them. You don’t denigrate your own players in the press, not even a tiny bit.
Let’s all recite that together: “You don’t denigrate your own players in the press, not even a tiny bit. You don’t denigrate your own players in the press, not even a tiny bit. You don’t denigrate your own players in the press, not even a tiny bit.” Thank you everyone. Moving on.
Kevin Goldstein chatted this week. A comment on Rasmus:
Kevin (St Louis): Why do you see Bruce as a better prospect than Rasmus? I understand that Bruce had success at a higher level and may win a batting title in the bigs, but he probably won’t stick in CF and Colby has more power and speed. Could you compare the two?
Kevin Goldstein: I would argue that Bruce has a touch more power potential, while also being a better pure hitter than Rasmus, by a decent margin.
PECOTA likes Bruce a good deal better but I’m still betting my chips that Rasmus has a better career, in part because he’s going to be the better defender hands down. Goldstein also mentioned that the elbow woes prevented Jaime Garcia from making the top 100. That would have given the Cardinals 4 players in his top 100. The system is improving . . . slowly but surely, it’s improving. Of course, once Rasmus graduates to the majors it’s back to be rated in the bottom third.
Law released his Top 100 and chatted on the same day as Goldstein. I think they should settle things in a dark alley with brass knuckles . . . but hey that’s just the UFC fan in me. From Law’s chat:
Chris Perez: Not on the list huh? Oh well, am I the next Cardinals closer?
Keith Law: Maybe when you stop walking two guys every three innings.
Sick burn, Klaw, sick burn.
Jon Doe Cardinal fan : you had Mitchell Boggs on the list ahead of other cardinals prospects like Chris Perez rhp, Bryan Anderson c, Jaime Garcia lhp, Adam Ottavino rhp, and Pete Kozma ss. are you high on Boggs or not believer in the others?
Keith Law: I am definitely high on Boggs, and I think I’m relatively low on the other guys, although Garcia would have been ahead of Boggs if I was sure he was 100% healthy. I don’t think Anderson’s a catcher, I think Ottavino’s a reliever, I thought Kozma was a good utility player in the draft (but he is very young to consign him to that bin), and as I said earlier Perez’s control is a problem.
I think he’s basing too much off what he saw in the AFL for Boggs, I agree with him on Garcia. I don’t know why he doesn’t think Anderson can stick at catcher, I understand the Ottavino sentiment, no comment on Kozma and we’re back to the Sick Burn from earlier.
Robert (Cardinals fan): Thank you Keith, you always provide interesting chats to read. How many of the people who ask questions would you like to reach thru the computer and slap?
Keith Law: Only the ones who accuse me of bias.
Slapping seems a little effeminate to me. Let’s punch them . . . . . with brass knuckles.
Brian Walton of The Birdhouse has an interesting editorial about the state of the Cardinal team and the discussion of the word “transition”. I disagree with his conclusion but it’s a discussion that’s been fleshed out on several occasions.
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erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I respect Keith Law’s opinion a lot, even when I disagree with it. That being said, I think Bryan Anderson ran over his dog or something similar. Law does NOT like him. I don’t get it.
A word on Boggs: everyone who’s surprised by how much KLaw likes him needs to remember what KLaw looks for. In a pitcher, he really likes velocity, which Boggs showed a lot of in the AFL, and he likes a certain kind of mechanics. He prefers aggressive leg drive pitchers, but unlike Carlos Gomez, who loves it when pitchers sort of drift through their balance points, KLaw likes guys who stay back, gather themselves over the rubber, and then drive hard toward the plate. Boggs also just happens to have pretty much exactly that sort of delivery. Remember, analysts all have their own ideas about the best way to go about doing things, in addition to trying to break players down just on quality. Azruavatar really, really likes walk rates, Baseball America generally emphasizes changeups, and Chris O Leary flips out when he see an elbow above a shoulder. KLaw has his own set preferences, and Boggs meshes nicely with virtually everything he looks for. I just hope he knows what he’s talking about, as far as Mr. Boggs. (And doesn’t on most of our other prospects.)
I don’t know about the program falling to bottom 3rd once Rasmus graduates. Next time rankings come out is one year from now which gives us an entire season of last years draft (is Kozma really 1st round material? Is Mort going to have a break out season at AA or higher? etc.) as well as an entire draft with Mo calling the shots not Walt (We might have signed Russell with Mo as the GM). So don’t count the system out just yet.
You’re right that it will be interesting to see how the draft goes without Walt’s influence but the current crop without Colby is definitely in the lower third. This year will have to show us that Luhnow and co. really do have better information to identify impact players. I’m hoping that financial issues prohibited us from selecting some of the consensus high ceiling players in the early rounds and that that will be corrected. I am pretty confident that the brain trust can find useful players later in the draft but, at this point, I agree with Law that Kozma and Mort have limited potential.
Hey guys. The issue with Anderson is his throwing. I put a 35 on his arm - he leads with his elbow, so he gets nothing on his throws, very awkward if you ever get to see it from the side - and I’ve talked to other scouts who saw him at different times and also have him below-average, so at least it’s not just one bad day.
I will cheerfully admit to being high on Boggs.
red baron, that’s a nice summary of what I like in deliveries. Well done.
I could see the Cards holding steady next year even after Rasmus graduates. Say that Garcia has a full healthy year, Anderson starts to develop more power so he’ll profile at another position, Kozma has a strong full-season debut by hitting .280/.370/.380 in low-A, and they hit a home run with their first-round pick. All of these things are possible, and none is improbable.
Our first rounder is a utility player. Ugh.
I’d hate to have Porcello sitting at #2.
keith, what are your thoughts on mortensen? he seemed like a major overdraft at the time, but some people such as derrick mckamey are giving him some pretty lofty reviews these days.
forgot to say, this draft is critical. to keep the momentum in the system going they really need to pick a guy at 13 that can be a #1 prospect type talent. my personal favorite is harold martinez, but we will see what happens as the season goes on.
All I’ve got to say on all this is ….10 days till pitchers and catchers report.
Thank God!
I don’t get the leads-with-the-elbow concern as a show stopper for Anderson staying at catcher. I understand why it’s an issue, but (1) the minors are there precisely so that stuff like that can be fixed, (2) stopping the running game is a smaller part of a catcher’s tool kit than it was 20 to 30 years ago (something we need to remember whenever we look at Yadier Molina as well), and (3) guys make it to the bigs as catchers all the time with a single chink in their defensive armor and I haven’t heard other complaints about his defense. Why is this such a big deal?
Unless I’m mistaken, Derrick does part-time work for the Cardinals. Or did until recently.
And yes, I thought Mortensen was a huge overdraft. I saw him myself and wrote him off as below my radar screen (which was sort of top 150-200 players). I don’t know what the Cardinals liked specifically about him, but I didn’t see it.
Keith,
I don’t know if you’ve answered this already on some other post or discussion, but who do you see the Cards taking at 13 in the draft?
in case you missed it tom, he already answered that in our q and a–christian freidrich, lhp of w. kentucky
Thanks erik. I’ll check it out.