Future Redbirds

(Photo from Tipster Hog)

I’ve been hearing more and more experts who are sharing a high regard for Jess Todd, so let’s take a closer look at him.

Background

Todd transferred from Navarro College to Arkansas after obliterating NJCAA hitters for two seasons. He handled the notoriously tough SEC almost as effortlessly as he handled JUCO hitters, striking out 128 in 93.1 innings with a 2.89 ERA. He earned national player of the week honors after he set an Arkansas and SEC Tournament record with 17 K’s in 8 IP on May 24. He utterly dominated in the month of May in particular, fanning 49 in 31.1 innings with a 0.57 ERA. The rotation of Nick Schmidt (1st round, 23rd overall by San Diego), Duke Welker (2nd round, 68th overall by Pittsburgh) and Todd (2nd round, 82nd overall) made for a pretty formidable three-pronged attack for the Hogs. Todd statistically was the best of all three, working at first out of the bullpen and later cementing a spot in the rotation. His signed 7/20/07 for a $400K bonus. I’m guessing Todd was taken after his rotation mates because he projects more as a reliever while Schmidt and Welker are more projectable. Fun fact: He is a former high school teammate of fellow Cardinal farmhand Josh Wilson.

Scouting

Todd’s stuff is also rated the best of all his Razorback rotation mates. He primarily works with a 90-94 mph four-seamer, and a hard mid-80s slider that’s a put away pitch. Baseball America noted that both pitches were some of the best in the Cardinal draft. He also throws an upper-80s two-seamer and a circle change that moves like a splitter. Both rate as fringe average or below. His velocity was down a little bit towards the end of the season due to fatigue, but that didn’t make him less dominating in the New York Penn. A lot of people feel his ticket to the big leagues is in relief, because he throws with some effort, and he’s a bit “smallish” for a starter, standing at 5’11”. Carlos Gomez said:

Todd has an aggressive “stepover” that kickstarts his explosive hip rotation into footplant. Todd is a pitcher who just “comes at you.” As I said with (Tim) Alderson, guys with aggressive lower body action tend to be more effective with offspeed pitches because hitters will try to “hit the motion” instead of letting the ball travel. You’ll probably see Todd strike out many hitters who will jump at his filthy slider. I like his aggressiveness and expect him to move pretty quickly. Stick him in the bullpen, let him go all out, and watch him be a better version of the “slider happy” Turk Wendell.

Performance

Lots to like here. Todd struck out 197 batters in 151.2 innings pitched. His walk rate is low, he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. Because he’s a “slider happy” RHP, his platoon splits are sorta noticeable. Southpaw batters hit .284/.330/.330 against him, whereas right handers hit .178/.230/.263. In college, lefties were .269/.331/.381 against; righties .217/.287/.266. He also walked lefties more at least in college– 3.38 BB/9 against 2.42. Professionally, it was less of an issue–2.61 versus 2.27.

Outlook

I like Todd a lot. He was a favorite pick of mine on draft day, and he hit the ground running in his pro debut. He could jump to Palm Beach to start the season after a very strong showing in the instructional leagues this past fall; he allowed one earned run on a hit while striking out 15 there and walking none. His velocity also returned. The consensus view of his long-term outlook is in the bullpen, but I think he should get every opportunity to start. I see him possibly taking the Brad Thompson path to the big leagues—starting until reaching AAA and then converting to relief. Like Wonderbrad, Todd should have no major troubles in the lower minors. I like his future better because of the strong K rates, and I see him setting up in a couple of years.