This year’s edition of the Prospect Handbook are starting to be delivered if you pre-ordered through their website. Unfortunately, I did not so I won’t be getting mine for another week or so. It’s like having to wait until the weekend to celebrate your birthday. Grumble, grumble.
The Red Baron was kind enough to share the Top 30 with us, with the addition of Barton there’s been some shuffling at the top. Here it is:
1. Colby Rasmus OF
2. Chris Perez RHP
3. Bryan Anderson C
4. Brian Barton OF
5. Jaime Garcia LHP
6. Adam Ottavino RHP
7. Pete Kozma SS
8. Clayton Mortensen RHP
9. Mitchell Boggs RHP
10. Tyler Herron RHP
11. Jon Jay OF
12. Jess Todd RHP
13. Joe Mather OF/1B
14. Kenny Maiques RHP
15. Allen Craig 3B/1B
16. P.J.Walters RHP
17. Jose Martinez SS
18. Brad Furnish LHP
19. Kyle McClellan RHP
20. Blake Hawksworth RHP
21. Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B
22. Mark Worrell RHP
23. Mike Parisi RHP
24. Jason Motte RHP
25. Mark McCormick RHP
26. Blake King RHP
27. Mark Hamilton 1B
28. Luke Gregerson RHP
29. Tyler Greene SS
30. Luis De La Cruz C
A few observations after the jump-
Higher then I would’ve guessed: I’m a little surprised to see Barton all the way at #4 and above Garcia. Most have labeled Barton as no more then a nice 4th OF, BA apparently likes him as a starter down the road. I will say I have the same hunch. I’m also pleasantly surprised to see Todd at #12. I continue to hear good things about him everywhere I turn. He is in queue for a profile that should be done hopefully by this week.
Lower then I would’ve guessed: I know Hoffpauir doesn’t have a lot of believers in the scouting community, but #21? I realize the man hasn’t hit up until this past season, but a .420 OBP in AA and a .394 OBP in AAA from the 2B position is pretty rare. I would think he would’ve rated higher then Hawksworth, McClellan and Furnish. I’m also taken back by Motte being #24. I know he’s not long on secondary stuff, but 95-98 MPH fastballs are 95-98 MPH fastballs. Mark Hamilton is a lot lower then I would’ve thought. I tend to judge him by his line in A+, as do others. BA is looking at that, and then seeing the craptacular line he put up in AA and are a lot less optimistic.
A pick of mine that didn’t crack BA’s Top 30: Tyler Norrick, D’Marcus Ingram, Cody Haerther Jon Edwards. Ingram was a narrow miss.
AZ’s picks that didn’t crack BA’s Top 30: Daryl Jones, Cody Haerther, Eddie Degerman. Jones also was a near miss.
Reader’s picks that didn’t cut it: Steve Hill, Deryk Hooker.
I’m a little perplexed that Haerther didn’t crack the the Top 30 after being there in what seems like forever now and ranking #16 last year. I still think he has his limits. I’m starting to feel sort of stupid for being as high on Norrick as I have been, but maybe he’ll reward my faith next season.
Some agreement with FR: I had Furnish at 19, BA at 18. I had Walters at 17, BA at 18. AZ had King at #25, BA #26. He also had Maiques at #13, BA #14. And of course, we all agree who’s the king of the hill.
In case you were wondering: David Freese was #28 for the Padres, the book went to print before the trade went down. #28 sounds pretty bad, but San Diego’s farm ranked #12 overall. It was followed by….
The good news:The farm system was ranked #13 overall! Next time some sportswriter tells you that there’s nothing in the farm, you can officially roll your eyes and know that they have not done their homework, and that they are going off of old info.
If anyone has the book, please let me know how they graded us on impact as well as depth and who they named the sleeper. They also always have the projected 2011 lineup, let me have it. Just ruin the whole thing for me, I don’t care.
Filed under: Prospect rankings
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
You know, in a weird way, I’m really happy that there are hardly any 2007 draftees on that list. That probably sounds strange- why would I be glad that the draft doesn’t look very good?- but I see it a little differently. In years past, that year’s draft picks would immediately jump up to the top of the list, completely bypassing the organisational detritus that was the bulk of the Cards’ system. This year, despite having what I, and most others, see as a solid draft, there was enough talent already in the system that the new blood wasn’t immediately considered the best, largely because they were all too new to have yet proved their suckitude. Now, if we could just get the organisation to be a little more aggressive at the top of the draft, we would be set.
I’m hearing pretty much nothing but good things about Todd also. I’m still shocked he was that high. The reasons given make sense, though. If Todd is developed as a reliever, (which most believe he should be) he has a ceiling as a top of the line setup man, and, more importantly to his rank here, he’s very nearly a finished product. I’m officially jumping on Azruavatar’s bandwagon right now; the Cards have enough bullpen arms that I don’t want to see them sign any more expensive veterans in the foreseeable future. Period.
You know, I’m really curious as to what a lot of the experts are looking at when they’re labelling Barton a fourth outfielder. Nothing in the guy’s numbers throw up a red flag to me, and by all accounts, he’s a bundle of tools. I wonder if this is a case of too much weight being placed on a guy’s agean or if there’s something else going on with him that I’m just not seeing? To me, he seems to be an almost ideal top of the order hitter; I’m just going to hope that the fellows at BA know what they’re talking about.
As far as what they had to say about the Cards’ system overall, it isn’t anything we don’t know already. Lots of depth, especially on the pitching side, but limited impact talent. Looking at Sickels’s list, and now the BA one, I believe the Cardinals actually have some of the best depth of any organisation in the game. They just can’t compare with the star power that some of the others may be able to produce. Again, if any of you front office types are listening, take heed: you guys are really good at finding sleepers, identifying late bloomers, and bringing in narrow ceiling/floor spread players; you’ve got to take some more home run swings when the count’s in your favour.
Overall, I’ve got to believe that this really proves Luhnow’s worth. Just imagine what he could do if he were backed up by an organisation that wasn’t afraid to push the envelope and go against the commissioner’s office. Still, kudos to the scouting and drafting departments for the strides they’ve made the last couple of years.
Great time for a Goold Q&A wouldn’t you say? Asking exactly the questions you asked here.
“…largely because they were all too new to have yet proved their suckitude.”
I love it.
I agree on Barton. I read about how his stock “dipped” because of his poor 2007. Sheesh, the guy was poor in AAA–but he had 96 plate appearances. Not exactly a huge sample size.
Other than that hes had basically an .875+ OPS his entire minor league career. I know he’s 25 and not 22 but I like him–like him a lot.
I find it interesting that there are so many players that don’t overlap between the various lists. In addition to the names mentioned above as not being in another list, Sickles mentioned Derby, Descalso, Eager, Henley, Kopp, Stavinoah, and Zawacki. So in the 5 lists, 46 different players are mentioned (if I counted correctly). I think that indicates good depth, but another explanation would be that after the first 15-20 players that everyone seems to agree on, the remaining players are interchangeable minor league replacement level players picked almost randomly to fill out the list. Sickles list could have stopped at 20, however, so by mentioning the others he must think they have true potential, so I’ll be optimistic.
Also, just two guys from the Latin American program are mentioned here, at 17 and 30.
It’ll be interesting to see if guys like Juan Mosquera (SS) and the Gonzalez non-brothers (Carlos and Reynier, both RHP) crack this list a year from now.
You may also see Edgar Lara and Andres Rosales, among others, getting nods in the top 30 after next year. It takes a little time, and sometimes more than 1 year, to get noticed coming from what had been an extinct Latin-American program. It will take some time to start convincing some of the scouts, although it sounds like De La Cruz already has quite a few believers.
Funny thing is, in 2004, Cruz, despite his entry-level status, had he been here, he would have likely cracked out top 10. Definitely another indicator that our depth has drastically improved.
Don’t forget Ryde Rodriguez as well.
And Romulo Ruiz. Agree that the depth is unprecedented in this century but I don’t think that we can give Luhnow and company an A grade until we find out if any more of the recent high picks look like impact players. Without Colby this would still be a depressing list unless a few other guys really rock this year.
Per BA:
St. Louis Cardinals
Signed: 1B Chris Gibson
The son of Hall of Fame righthander Bob Gibson, Chris played college ball for Southeast Missouri State. The lefty-hitting first baseman signed with independent Gateway (Frontier) for the 2007 season and batted .260/.316/.304. He was drafted in the 47th round out of Bellevue (Neb.) East High by the Cardinals in 2002.
The minor league depth will be a real challenge for Mo. He will need to pick the winners and losers (which won´t always be clear) and he´ll have to figure out how to package multiple good (but not great) talent to get better talent. I hope he is up to the task.
Tyler Henley?
Where’s he at? Surprised he doesn’t make it into the top 30.
Nice to see Tyler Greene still clinging to a spot in the top 30.
And after seeing Jones a bit last season at QC I can say I am not surprised he didn’t make the cut. Watching him play you can tell he is a truly blessed athletic talent but I don’t know if things are ever going to “click” with him. At times he appears to be overwhelmed by the fundamentals of the game.
Why is Chris Perez so high on most everyones list? From what I hear he has major control issues. Now if he fixed that problem. You could compare him to Joba. He’s too high imo. I think Jaime should be higher than 5.