Redbird recollections: Yadier Molina
It’s nice to see a homegrown kid make good. After hearing the dollar amount of the deal to lock up Yadi during his arbitration years, it’s almost impossible not to like. And it’s equally impossible to not like Yadi. He’s a fun player to watch. His improbable heroics in Game 7 of the NLCS is probably the biggest HR in Cardinal history, and this past season it appears Molina started to finally live up to his abilities at the plate. And who doesn’t enjoy watching his cannon of an arm at work?
Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to look back at some of Yadi’s “baby” pictures to see how he got to where he is today.
Yadier B Molina was drafted in the 4th round of the 2000 draft, 114th overall out of High School in Puerto Rico and debuted with Johnson City. He didn’t set the world on fire, but showed a little pop and of course, splendid defense. He drew some national attention in ESPN the Magazine, who was covering Rick Ankiel at the time. Ankiel gave a lot of credit to the youngest Molina for his ability to call a game and handle pitchers. Yadi was named the #5 prospect going into the next season by Baseball America.
He moved up to full season Peoria the following season, and despite hitting .280, he had a lowly .331 OBP and .384 SLG. On the plus, he threw out 52% of base stealers. Molina remained the # 5 Cardinal prospect as rated by Baseball America.
Next year Yadier skipped Palm Beach to play at AA Tennessee, an aggressive promotion for a 20 year old. It was more of the same for Molina. At the plate, he hit an empty .275. He didn’t draw many walks or hit for power, but he didn’t strike out often. He was also noted as possibly being the slowest player on the base paths in the minors. BA noted he was doing a better job for staying on balls and going the other way, and he threw out 40% of base stealers. He moved up to the #3 prospect in a very thin year for the Cardinals.
Molina showed improved plate discipline the following season for Memphis and was deemed ready for the big leagues. After Cody McKay predictably fizzled, (he was on the Mitchell Report? Really Cody?) Molina was the # 2 catcher and I think you all know the rest of the story. When you look at Molina, I would have to say he wouldn’t be the type of player that would thrill me if we were covering him in the system now. Guys who live on contact just don’t excite me much, no matter how stellar their defense is. Even so, the way he was holding his own with each promotion was commendable. Yadier has developed some patience at the plate lately, which obviously is a very good thing. I don’t think his 2007 numbers are much of a fluke. Actually, I think his past seasons of failure at the plate were the fluke. JC Bradbury, who runs the excellent site Sabernomics has developed a statistic called PrOPS. PrOPS looks at a players batted ball types, walks, homers and strikeouts in order to predict what their actual OPS should be going forward. Season in and season out, Yadier has always had much better PrOPS then his actual OPS. Check it out-
2004 OPS .684. PrOPS .729
2005 OPS .654. PrOPS .752
2006 OPS .595. PrOPS .725
2007 OPS .708. PrOPS .749
He’s a better hitter then what he’s shown; it was just a matter for getting some good BABIP luck instead of the bad.
Now, what do with Bryan Anderson? I’m not sure exactly, but as AZ noted at VEB the other day the Braves can attest to what a nice problem it is to have two good, young catchers. I’m not putting Salty and McCann in the same category as Anderson and Molina, but they both are pretty darn good. Looking at the player’s peak translations, it’s pretty interesting how close they shake out:
Molina: .287/.364/.390
Anderson: .301/.356/.400
Of course, Anderson’s defense may be average at best while Yadier is probably the best defensive catcher on the planet. If he goes back to his sub .600 OPS ways, then Anderson could step in. If he doesn’t, then Anderson is a nice trading chip. With Yadier’s contract, he’s hardly untradeable either. Another thought is that since the catching position is such a demanding job, it doesn’t hurt to have 2 good catchers versus the usual status quo backup. No matter how you slice it, it was a good deal. I have to give kudos to Mozeliak on this one. If he doesn’t win a Gold Glove this year, I may have to get Amaury Marti on the phone. That could get ugly.
Filed under: Bryan Anderson, Redbird recollections
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I think we should expect Yadi to be a little below his PrOPS given how slow he is, but I agree that 2005-2006 was unlucky for even the most lead-footed of players. I think we should expect him to under-perform his PrOPS by 40-50 points going forward as he did in 04 and 07.
Mike,
That’s the same point I was going to make. Yadi is a whole different kind of slow. Not yet quantifiable.
Slower players are always going to underperform their PrOPS and have low BABIPs. It’s inherit to the formula. Take into account that he is not only slow, but probably the slowest in the league by a healthy margin, and you can explain much of the descrepancy.
Count me in as one not sold on him as a hitter. He hits the ball on the ground entirely too much, and even if he can change his approach, doesn’t have the power to be an effective fly ball hitter.
Also, his rasie in walk rate could be somewhat attirbuted to the pitcher hitting 8th for much of the season. I don’t have any data to back it up, only because I can’t find it, but I think it stands to reason that having the pitcher hitting behind you will get you pitched around in many situations. My theory will be tested this year, as I fear he’s going to have to hit 6th.
All that being said, Mo did a nice job with the contract and having two good catchers is certainly not a bad thing. Anderson is no sure thing, and Yadi has at least proven to be a superior hitter even if he continues to be a fruitless hitter. If both continue to develop, we’ll have a nice trade chip in the near future.
Edit button….
The above should read.
“Anderson is no sure thing, and Yadi has at least proven to be a superior defender even if he continues to be a fruitless hitter.”
Here’s a fun notion: take the bases saved by Yadi with his arm, and add them to his slugging%.
Like this. Yadi threw out 27 of 50 runners last year. MLB caught stealing avg. was 25.5%, or 27 of 106, so to speak. Therefore Yadi was 56 runners, or 56 bases above average with his arm. Add those 56 bases to his total bases, and what you have is an average DE-fensive catcher with a O-ffensive line of .275/.340/.526(!)
Of course, this includes no adjustment for errors or passed balls (or Yadi’s aforementioned glacial running speed), but as a quick and dirty indicator, I think it shows how valuable the Best Throwing Arm In Baseball truly is.