Future Redbirds

For someone who is essentially on the cusp of making the big league team, Mark Worrell has had something of an under the radar career. We’ve seen the Padres snatch up under-appreciated relievers like this in recent years (Cla Meredith, Joe Thatcher) and while Petco helps anyone who sets foot on the mound, it’s possible that baseball systematically undervalues deceptive deliverers. That said, Worrell doesn’t just throw that side-arm slot. . . . .

Background

Drafted in 2001 by the Rays, he elected to go to school rather than sign. The Cardinals then took him in the now infamous 2004 draft in the 12th round from Florida International University. Quick, guess the best player drafted from that school . . . got it? Me neither, but it’s Mike Lowell. Second best is still very much up for grabs if Worrell can pass Brad Eldred. Baseball America had him rated as the 5th best prospect headed into the 2004 draft from the Sun Belt Conference. Two of the players ahead of him on that list you might recognize are Thomas Diamond (of the Rangers forger DVD troika) and Adam Lind (a Blue Jays prospect). If you page through a few Google layers, it’s amazing how many articles viewed Worrell as a potential closer after entering the Cardinal organization. I know we’ve been starved for prospects in recent years but how many side-arm delivery closers can you name? That’s not to take away from Worrell’s potential and performance; unless something radically changes, Worrell doesn’t, and never really has, profiled well as a closer.

Repertoire

Worrell the traditional fastball-slider combo against right-handed batters. His fastball rests in the low-90s and his slider is an above-average pitch. Of course the obvious answer to his success, is that he comes from a low arm-slot with great deception. The batters struggle to pick up the ball and - voila - outs are made. That’s really not the whole story though. Not only does Worrell feature an unusual arm-slot, he’s not afraid to use different deliveries as well. For left-handed batters, he throws from a more traditional 3/4 release point and uses a changeup to complement the fastball. The changeup probably doesn’t quite make the average grade. Not surprisingly, Worrell has a significant platoon split in the numbers that makes him ideal for facing lineups that are heavy on RH hitters.

Statistical Performance

With a player whom we’d expect to have a platoon split, the numbers really need to be split to evaluate performance. In 2004, at age 21, he pitched for the Cardinals rookie league Johnson City and Peoria. We’re going to causally gloss over these numbers for two reasons: 1) I don’t have split data and 2) there’s some questions about how informative stats are at the low levels especially for college players.

Fast foward to 2005 where Mark Worrell spends the season at Palm Beach.

Neither type of batter was hitting for average but the difference is that left-handed hitters didn’t need too. Give it time and he’ll issue a walk. The batted ball data is actually better against lefties but the control isn’t anywhere close to what he exhibits against right-handers. The numbers here are nice but there not necessarily eye-popping.

The 2006 performance at Springfield shows a significant step forward across the board. This is the kind of prospect growth you love to see. Most of this work was done as the closer in Springfield nonetheless (Worrell would win the minor league Rolaids Relief award that season). As is often the case with relievers, we still have to be careful that we aren’t assuming random variance is a change in true talent level since we’re often working with a reduced number of innings. A 7% line drive rate isn’t something that’s realistic for any pitcher. You’d assume at this point that the rate is going to fall somewhere in between the two — maybe around 11 or 12. That’s still progress. The BABIP for right-handed hitters is high in this season but again let’s look at the control proxy K/BB. In fact, without knowing that he was a side-armer, you’d probably be tempted to say that the lefty numbers were acceptable. Whether his changeup advanced or there was some luck involved — I don’t know but that’s not a crippling platoon split.

While he wasn’t accumulating saves in 2007 at Memphis, most of those were going to Brian Falkenborg, Worrell’s numbers are still excellent. The command against lefties gets iffy (especially with the continually rising BAA) but we had prepped ourselves for that. Righties can’t square up on the ball and they don’t walk much either. Look at how consistent his GB rates are from year to year against righties. That’s probably the ceiling of what we’d expect that rate to look like in the majors, which would make him a marginal fly-ball pitcher. Last season Chris Perez and Jason Motte posted around a 3 K/BB ratio both featuring more strikeouts but also more walks. Relative to those two relievers, Worrell stacks up nicely against right batters. That’s not entirely fair to the Perez and Motte who simply aren’t as much of a finished product as Worrell.

The Future

I hope that last comparison tells you something about Worrell. He’s got a future in the majors on a team that knows how to properly leverage platoon splits.  Baseball is predominantly right-handed hitters so leveraging a ROOGy could potentially be easier than a LOOGy. Don’t expect Worrell to be the next Meredith or Pat Neshek — he just doesn’t profile as well statistically despite the similarities in pitching style. My hope for Worrell, who was added to the 40-man roster this offseason, is that he makes the bullpen this coming season. The team could certainly do worse than him for a 12th man on the staff. That would give Motte and Perez some time to hone their craft in the minors, which both of them still need to do. Making the 7 man bullpen won’t be easy with 5 of the roster spots realistically filled already (Isringhausen, Springer, Franklin, Johnson, Flores). While I think the Spring Training “competitions” are something of a farce (what are those 10 innings going to tell you that his 150+ minor league innings can’t), that’s probably when his fate will be decided. Barring injury, however, he seems like a good bet to make the team by 2009 at the latest.

Be sure to check out LBoros’s 2006 interview with Mark Worrell.

(Note: All stats via minorleaguesplits.com)