Bryan Smith of Baseball Prospectus was kind enough to answer a few questions for me about the Cardinal prospects. Before joining the prospect coverage at Baseball Prospectus, Bryan wrote about the minor leagues for SI.com, Baseball Analysts and the Hardball Times. If you’re not a subscriber to BP by now, you’re missing out. Their MLB analysis has of course been pretty groundbreaking as I’m sure most of you are aware, but Bryan and Kevin Goldstein’s articles on the minors (and college) alone make it more then a worthy subscription. You can click on the above link to get a full listing of his articles at BP.
On with the Q and A after the jump-
You are a relative newcomer to the Baseball Prospectus team. How did that gig come about?
I am a newcomer to BP — 9 months now, but I’m hardly a newcomer to writing on the Internet and minor league baseball. I started a blog called Wait ‘Til Next Year a long time ago, and it eventually joined the same network as Jon Weisman, Rich Lederer, Alex Belth … and Will Carroll. Well, Rich and I eventually started Baseball Analysts, and during my time there, my friendship with Kevin Goldstein began. I then left Baseball Analysts thinking I was done with with writing on the Net, but once I left I got hooked again, and when I was looking to come back, Will and Kevin (and Nate Silver) were nice enough to open a spot up at BP.
What people or kind of information do you consult when you are evaluating the health of a team’s farm system?
Whoever I can, really. My ultimate goal is to gain as much information and put together as many opinions about a player as I can. Ideally, you talk to people within the game — scouts, player development people, minor league coaches. But I’m also concerned with how people I trust view a player, and if possible, how I view the player. I don’t fancy myself as a scout, but I think Kevin and my friends at Baseball America would tell you — spend enough time talking to scouts, and you can’t help but try to think like them.
Where would you put the Cardinal system in comparison to some of their division rivals?
It’s certainly improved, and considering how bad some other teams have gotten in the division, it might just be second behind the Cincinnati Reds. The Astros have gotten really bad, the Brewers don’t have anything at the top of their system, and the Cubs don’t have any depth. I also have the Cards above the Pirates, so in a really bad division of farm systems, St. Louis ranks second. That’s both a good compliment and a back-handed one, I suppose.
In your recent article at BP “Hatching Cardinals“, you seemed to be pleased with the job Jeff Luhnow has done in making the farm system respectable again. What has he done to do that?
I think he’s ventured away from some of the dogmatic drafting that previously hurt the organization, while still drafting talent that is likely to make the Major Leagues. There is nothing wrong with drafting on the heavy college side, but when you do so, taking players like Adam Ottavino and Clay Mortensen — high ceiling pitchers — while drafting ’smart’ prep players like Rasmus and Kozma is a generally good philosophy. Simply, he brought some continuity to the scouting director position.
In your mind, what predictive value do college stats offer?
I don’t think we know yet, but I don’t believe that there is nothing within the numbers. My friends Kent Bonham and Jeff Sackmann are doing great work at CollegeSplits.com, and there is much to be learned in the numbers that they are culling. It’s also something I hope to investigate a little more during my time covering college baseball this spring for BP. After all, my first article as a BP regular was looking at how the top pitchers did against the 1-5 players in the lineup and the 6-9 players … with the idea that the real talent in college lineups usually ends up near the top. We’ll certainly need to think outside the box to get something from the numbers.
Do you think that at times teams can be too persuaded by college numbers? There’s been a general perception that the Cardinals will pick an excellent collegiate performer- Daniel Descalso or Eddie Degerman come to mind- over a more”project-able” player. Does that criticism stick?
I suppose they value good college players more than the next team, but a guy like Kyle Russell (even though he didn’t sign) offers value. I agree, in a perfect world, they combine college stats with projectability … like they did with Jess Todd. But if they take players with good bodies of work during the middle rounds, I think they’ll get a lot of bench players with an occasional starter mixed in.
Moving on to some of the current Redbird farmhands- I think we all know about Colby Rasmus by now, so let’s talk about some of the other players. What do you see Bryan Anderson eventually producing in the majors?
You know, I’m proud to say I saw Anderson’s first game in Quad Cities in 2006, as I made my way down there to watch Colby Rasmus (and of course, fall in love with his swing). But Anderson was the other player that really stuck out in the game, and I made an immediate mental note of him. Since then, I’m proud to see how he’s continued his ascent, including handling a pretty difficult move to Double-A this season. I think you’ll see his offensive skills progress — his excellent contact ability, his power will progress, and he might walk a little more. But at some point, the Cardinals are going to have to weigh Yadier’s defensive prowess against Anderson’s offensive skills. I don’t expect them to make the right decision.
I’m afraid of that, too. What was your take on the selection of Pete Kozma in last year’s draft?
I know Cardinals fans, like most teams’ fans that drafted from 4-26, are upset their team didn’t take Rick Porcello. But, in the end, it just wasn’t economically possible for Jeff Luhnow, just as signing Alex Rodriguez wouldn’t be economically possible for John Mozeliak. So, take Porcello out of the equation, and I think all you can say is the Cardinals got their guy. Their information told them that Kozma wouldn’t be available with their next pick, and the same for Clay Mortensen. In the end, I believe in the art of scouting, so for now, I think you put trust in what those scouts saw.
The early returns on Clayton Mortensen have been downright tasty. Are we getting enamored with the early returns or do you think he is the real thing?
I think it’s a combination of the two. I do think Mortensen’s resume indicates he will undergo more struggles in the minor leagues than he’s faced so far or Cards fans might want to admit. But I also think this is a guy that has fastball movement that is so natural, stuff that plays so well, that I see more upside in him than Adam Ottavino, certainly. Given the Cards’ organizational sinker philosophy, I think Mortensen and Jess Todd (who I’m high on) were great picks.
Mitch Boggs: Is he a back end starter, middle reliever, or something else?
I like Mitch Boggs some, but I think the starter/reliever question will be answered by how well his velocity is in the bullpen. If he pitches a little more regularly in the 92-95 range in the bullpen, I think his future is in middle relief. But otherwise, he’s a swing guy and a fringe Major Leaguer. He doesn’t have putaway stuff and he doesn’t have great command, so the movement on his fastball is really his only significant asset.
Jarrett Hoffpauir burst on the scene this season from nowhere. Could he be a starting 2B in the show, or is he more of a utility infielder?
In a show where Adam Kennedy and Aaron Miles get that much time at second base, Jarrett Hoffpauir could be a second baseman. In a show where Dan Uggla goes from complete anonymity to All-Star, Hoffpauir could be a second baseman in St. Louis. But more specifically, I don’t see why not, this is a guy with fantastic contact skills that can get behind a ball. You combine great contact skills with any ability to hit the ball hard, and you could have a Major Leaguer.
Mark Hamilton’s future probably isn’t with the Cardinals him being a 1B and only a 1B, what sort of a trading chip would you consider him to be?
Remember when the Phillies had Ryan Howard in the minor leagues and Jim Thome at the Major League level? They were always handicapped, because they couldn’t get proper value for Howard because teams knew about Thome. This is that situation, but far worse: Hamilton isn’t as good as Howard, and Pujols certainly won’t be traded like Thome. So, unfortunately for Cardinals fans, I don’t see this situation ending for St. Louis anyway short but selling Hamilton at 60 cents on the dollar. I like Hamilton a lot; his Florida State League season seems to have flown under the radar a bit. His power and big left-handed bat has Ryan Klesko written all over it, so when the Cards do trade him, I hope they get some value from it.
What are the odds Brian Barton sticks on the 25-man roster this spring?
Sure. Tell me that Barton is not better or as good as John Rodriguez. I think you keep the expectations down, and start him off giving Ankiel (or Rasmus if he’s up) an off day against a good southpaw. Barton can be a good player, but don’t expect it and put him in the position to succeed … it’s the only way it will work.
Jim Edmonds for David Freese: Is there a winner in that trade?
It’s a bit of a sunk cost for the Cardinals — both teams recognized that with Colby Rasmus and Rick Ankiel available in center field, Edmonds salary didn’t have much value to St. Louis. If you’re asking me about Freese, I must start by saying it’s amazing how little South Alabama can develop hitters. I have a Diamond Mind League fantasy team that has Mike Blowers, circa 1995 on it. I think Freese could be that player on the high end. But that’s optimistic, and he might not have much value if he just gives you the week half of a platoon.
Is there any Cardinal farmhand who you feel the evaluators and pundits are overlooking?
I’ve talked about Jess Todd a few times, and I certainly think he is worth bringing up here again. I covered the Texas Collegiate League in the summer of 2006 for Baseball America, and even before he arrived at Arkansas, some called him the best prospect in the league because of his slider. Add in the progress he made with fastball movement and command under Dave Van Horn and you have a good player. My deep sleeper is Josh Dew, who was a fantastic choice from Troy, and I don’t think enough people are aware that Tyler Herron is pretty damn good.
Take a wild guess-When the Cardinals pick at #13 in the 2008 draft they’ll take—
One name is unfair, I’m going to give you three. Perfect world: Aaron Crow, rhp, Missouri. If they think he can catch: Yonder Alonso, 1b, Miami. My ultimate guess: Brett Hunter, rhp, Pepperdine.
You mentioned Aaron Crow — I like that. As a displaced Mizzou fan, I’d like to know how do you see the Tigers fairing this upcoming college season.
I haven’t talked to coach Tim Jamieson yet, but I like the Tigers this season. They are a year older, so you’ll see big things from star sophomores (catcher) Trevor Coleman and (stud pitcher) Kyle Gibson. Combine Gibson with Crow and Rick Zagone, and we’re talking about one of the nation’s better weekend rotations. It’s been fun to see the Tigers program bring in top-end talent since Ian Kinsler, and I think Tim Jamieson should have first rounders constantly coming through his program until he leaves.
Big thanks again go to Bryan for taking his time and sharing his thoughts with us. I hope you readers enjoyed it as much as I did. Again, you can catch Bryan’s work at BP here.
Filed under: Bryan Smith, Interviews, Jess Todd, Mark Hamilton | Tagged: Interviews
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
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Nice interview, Erik. It’ always encouraging to hear a guy who covers the minors as a whole say positive things about the system, albeit usually just better than lukewarm things.
I’m afraid I agree with him on the Bryan Anderson/ Yadier Molina conundrum. I highly, highly doubt the Cards will make the right decision there.
I’m becoming more and more intrigued by Tyler Herron all the time, primarily because there seems to be such a division of opinion on him. Smith says he’s “pretty damn good”; Keith Law says he has limited upside and he has a “fringy” fastball. I wonder exactly what one sees in him that the other doesn’t?
The Hamilton situation is really interesting too. Looking at his numbers, he should have really solid value in the market. You look at his situation, though, and I have to agree with Mr. Smith. The Cardinals are going to struggle mightily to receive what he’s worth when they inevitably move him.
Again, a really great interview. And, while I’m saying it, great job with the site in general. I remember coming here right after you first started out, when most of your posts generated around 3-5 responses, if that. The quality of the writing, and the coverage in general, has improved exponentially since then, and the increased traffic reflects it. Both you and Azru deserve a ton of credit for making this site *the* spot for news and discussion on the farm system. Kudos to both of you.
First off I’d like to say nice interview Erik, and that I always like Smith’s writing.
However, I cannot disagree more about crow being the ideal choice in a perfect world. He’s definately not a first round pick, and his stats are partially overrated by the defense behind him (While granted, possibly hurt too). I honestly can’t see him being more than a #4 starter, and I think even that is a stretch from the limited games I’ve seen of him combined with his statistics. He’s got a nice pitching build with his height/weight combo, and it’s obvious that he has quite a bit of ability. I can’t honestly see him being worthwhile at higher than a late second or early third round pick.
I like comparing A-Rod’s 275M to Porcello’s 11M. Ah, yes very similar. My thinking is most owners just aren’t to smart and don’t know how to take advantage of the system. Then there are the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yanks who know how to exploit the system.
I wonder if Bryan knows collegesplits hasn’t been touched in 7 months. But hopefully he knows something and it does return.
Also, Aaron Crow, don’t the Cards like guys who put up stats? Crow hasn’t showed that yet.
But enough criticisms out of me, I agree with him about Todd and think he’s being underrated, and I love the kid.
Nice of Bryan to answer some questions.
The ARod of the Majors is very much like the Porcello of the DRAFT. Not even a guy that has seen college much less AA or AAA I have to agree with him there.
The one place I disagree with almost all of you is on Anderson vs Yadi. I think too many people think Anderson’s offense is that much better then Yadi’s. Yes Yadi started out slow in the Majors but if you look at their rate stats at the same levels (and ages) Anderson has cooled off to the point where I don’t think he is really that much better. Also if Yadi can maintain his .340 OBP then he isn’t far off from what Anderson will give you anyway. So for me unless Anderson can improve his defense while still working to improve his offense I just don’t see him as more valuable then Yadi outside of financial costs.
Hi guys, glad you enjoyed the interview, because I did too. After Erik published the interview, he realized he wanted to ask me one more question. Rather than send him the response, I figured I would post my answer as a comment, and respond to what has been said so far. I’ll try and comeback and answer more comments later. Here’s Erik’s question.
“Do you think Kyle Russell was worth the $1.4 M price tag his agent put on him?”
No, I really don’t. I think Russell’s agent did a disservice to him staying so steadfast with their demands. Russell is a player that 30 out of 30 teams did not believe he was a first round talent, and 30 out of 30 teams worried how his game would transfer to wood bats. I loved the selection by the Cardinals when he fell, he represented good value there. However, the agent really made a questionable move, because after a record-setting season at Texas last year, I’m not sure Russell has anywhere to go but down this season.
Balkroth said: “I honestly can’t see him being more than a #4 starter, and I think even that is a stretch from the limited games I’ve seen of him combined with his statistics.”
I’m guessing, Balkroth, as a Cardinals fan, you’re limited times seeing Crow was during his first two years at Missouri. Combine those two years with his stats, and you had him nailed, he was pegged as a 3rd-5th rounder, at best. But if you don’t think he’s a first yet, you didn’t read my Cape Cod League reports in August (shame on you!). Crow flipped another switch in the Cape, pitching consistently in the mid 90s, touching 99 and 97 deep into the game of his last appearance. And, he has that velocity with the pitchability that he showed at Missouri when he was pitching 88-90.
The quick velocity uptick and his delivery made me too nervous to put him as the top prospect in the league, but I made a mistake not putting him #2. Baseball America has him listed as an outside chance at going first overall, but I think he’ll go 7-11 after this spring. A good Missouri pitcher falling to the Cardinals would indeed be perfect world, I’d think.
I’ll do one more and then hopefully be back this afternoon. Shh said, “I like comparing A-Rod’s 275M to Porcello’s 11M. Ah, yes very similar. My thinking is most owners just aren’t to smart and don’t know how to take advantage of the system. Then there are the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yanks who know how to exploit the system.”
This is both correct, and it’s incorrect. Look at the Cardinals draft last season — and look at how much their total cost was on signing bonuses in the draft. Now remember, Kyle Russell was deemed too expensive for their budget. If Russell’s million was too expensive, Porcello’s 11M was impossible, given the budget Luhnow gets from ownership.
Now, you’re right, the Tigers, Red Sox and Yanks are able to exploit the draft, but it’s not because they are smarter in the scouting department, it’s because their ownership is smarter to assign the scouting department more money. David Chadd is a smart guy, but Mike Illitch deserves the credit for Maybin and Miller and Porcello. And I’ll tell you a story … one of those 3 teams drafted a player out of high school a few years ago, and they reached their budget, so they couldn’t sign this high schooler for the 1 million he was asking for. They wanted him bad, and even asked other departments for extra money to get him. But, in the end, the department could not get any more money, this high school player went to college, and he ended up as a top ten draft pick. I can’t get into specifics, but it’s a true story, and shows every scouting budget has a critical mass.
Now, of course, it’s silly to compare 275 and 11 million. It becomes a little less silly when you realize what Mozeliak has to spend and what Luhnow does. Hope that gets to the heart of your criticism/question.
Thanks a lot guys for doing this - some great questions and thorough responses. Regarding Molina/Anderson - I’m hoping we hang on to Anderson for a while here and give him an opportunity to build more value, at least. I think there’s an excellent chance he’ll become a more attractive commodity to others a year or two down the road.
And I agree, as long as Tony is around, we’re more likely to move Anderson. I don’t really know Mo’s position on that, however, and a lot can change in a couple years.
Glad for the response Bryan, I tend to attend about 75% of MU home games a year, so it’s definately based off what I’ve seen from him. The biggest thing I see is that he has a “heavy” delivery with his fast ball. I guess I could say it’s similiar to trying to overthrow the ball, but bringing your arm down like it’s not flexible. You’re right though, I haven’t seen him in the Cod league, and I hope a MU pitcher works out for the Cards, I’m not holding my breath though.
great interview erik, and i’m really glad you are adding these to the site. as some of you may know, i am an absolute draft dork and i love seeing people discuss it already. as for crow, he would be an amazing pick for the cardinals as he is a guy with stuff and the command of that stuff to fly through the minors. unfortunately i don’t think there is any way he is available at 13. (btw, there is a video of him from this summer up at capeprospects.com if anyone wants to check it out).
Thanks for coming back to answer my question, Bryan.
My co-writer in crime wanted to ask if you thought Mark Worrell could possibly carve out a Cla Meredith-lite type of career–
And I remembered I wanted to ask if you though Jon Jay could bounce back and what his ceiling was.
And do you have 2 cents on luke gregerson?
Thnx again.
Oh, and FGC–that Cod Prospects is a great website. It’s on the roll now.
The A-Rod/Porcello comparison is only apt in the context of Luhnow and Mo not having the option of signing them due to financial constraints. It’s not a good comparison at all in any other sense.
But it’s also like me saying I can’t buy a great stock because I just don’t have the cash, versus saying that I can’t drive a Ferrari (USS Mariner is in my head) of the lot tomorrow because I don’t have the cash. It’s worlds different.
And really, I don’t think anyone who thinks Porcello would be the better choice is slighting Luhnow personally, or at least I hope not. As Cardinals fans, the concern is philosophical. Having a set budget is pretty stupid anyway if the risk-reward analysis comes out in favor of the signing, and Porcello didn’t get $11M up front. He got $3.5M and and is only guaranteed a little over 7. The decision should be made on the basis of Porcello, and the money should come from the same printing press that allows you to spend almost that same (bonus) amount on Cesar Izturis.
Oh, and seriously great interview. Not all or even most of the above is directed at Bryan. Just musing over the situation like I’ve done a lot of lately.
It’s time to move on, but it’s not about Porcello per se, for me.
Nice interview, and what a plus to have Bryan Smith dropping by to follow up. Terrific.
I’m guessing I’m probably not the only one that was intrigued by these two statements:
(1) “But I also think this is a guy that has fastball movement that is so natural, stuff that plays so well, that I see more upside in him than ….”, and
(2)”……Tyler Herron is pretty damn good.”
If Bryan drops back by, I’d love to hear him expand a little more on both of these guys, especially:
- what will be the keys to their success pitching at A= and/or AA this season?
- Are they in the Bowden/Swarzak/Cahill class of pitchers (yet)?
Hey three posts in a row!
It looks like Jamie Garcia is coming to ST this year. If you (Bryan) do stop back by, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Specifically on his walk rate and how his recent surgery affects things. Though I know that’s far from an exact science.
haltz, i don’t think garcia ever did have surgery.
Yeah, I’m stupid. Everyone else has I guess.
Great interview erik…nice “get”. Thanks to Bryan for stopping by this little community and answering questions. Its always nice to hear an outside perspective.
fewgood cards said, “as for crow, he would be an amazing pick for the cardinals as he is a guy with stuff and the command of that stuff to fly through the minors.”
This is absolutely true, and that, combined with being from Missouri, is why I classified him as a perfect world pick. I’m not really sold on Crow as a top five pick yet because he comes with some caveats for me, but he’d be awesome at 13.
Erik asked, “My co-writer in crime wanted to ask if you thought Mark Worrell could possibly carve out a Cla Meredith-lite type of career–”
That’s the hope, I suppose, but the biggest difference between the two pitchers is walks. Meredith walked absolutely no one in the minor leagues; his statistics were always jaw-dropping. Worrell doesn’t command quite as well, but he does have potential as a guy to come into games and shut down right-handed batters. That has real value, especially on a team like the Cardinals where the manager is so obsessed with righties on righties and lefties on lefties.
And another, “And I remembered I wanted to ask if you though Jon Jay could bounce back and what his ceiling was.”
I was never a huge Jay fan — there’s a lot of rawness to his game that I’ve never been completely convinced is going to go away. His line for last season is sort of what I see from him, something like .270/.330/.400, with some steals. In the end, his future is dependent upon his center field defense, as he’s not much of a bench player without capable skills up the middle.
Last for now from siddfynch, “what will be the keys to their success pitching at A= and/or AA this season? Are they in the Bowden/Swarzak/Cahill class of pitchers (yet)?”
To answer the second question first, no, I don’t quite think so. I actually think you can make a little better case for Herron at this point, but Bowden and Swarzak have done it at the upper levels and Cahill has semi-elite stuff. Both have that potential — and both enter that class if they show the same results for another season. To answer the first, I think Herron has to stay consistent, as he just wasn’t the same pitcher from outing-to-outing. His peripheral numbers suggest a far better ERA, but he would mix a string of good starts with a couple nasty ones. You can’t do that at higher levels. For Mortensen, it’s not controlling the strike zone, it’s commanding his pitches within the zone. He has been far too hittable, even while at Gonzaga, given his stuff, and the reason is that he leaves balls up in the zone too much.
I like Yadis bat. He seems to always hit with runners on base. Also You would think his power would develop soon to go with his maturing batting eye. Yadi is still a baby. I think his bat has a lot of upside left. Could be a break out year for his bat.
One more because I have the time for now. haltz asked, “It looks like Jamie Garcia is coming to ST this year. If you (Bryan) do stop back by, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Specifically on his walk rate.”
You know I looked back at the questions Erik sent me, and I accidentally missed one about Jaime Garcia, so I’m glad there is a question here about it. I certainly didn’t mean to evade it. Erik’s question was particularly focused on the type of pitcher that Garcia could be, so I started to think about other southpaws with good curveballs. Something cool I noticed then comparing numbers:
Garcia minor league career: 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9
Player B minor league career: 7.6 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.8 K/9
Pretty damn close, huh? Now, this might not be the best news for Cardinals fans, but Player B is Sean Marshall. I think Marshall represents the median-to-low end of what Cardinals fans can expect from Garcia. I think as you get to the high end we talk more about players like Ted Lilly, even though I don’t really love that example. I think Garcia is a good 3-type pitcher.
I’m not too concerned about the walks yet, but he certainly was consistent with his lackluster control throughout 2007, so it’s obviously not ideal. Let’s see how much of it was being too picky and how much is a long-term issue as we progress through 2008.
Bryan, at what age/level/# of games or other criteria are you comfortable projecting a player’s ceiling or ability.
Mortensen has been about as hittable as Brandon Webb so far. College and minors. Players hitting the ball on the ground in front of A-ball and WCC shortstops will have a high BABIP.
That’s worded horribly, so let me be more detailed.
Brandon Webb: 9.88 H/9, 2001 NCAA; 8.82 H/9, MiL Totals
Mortensen: 8.75 H/9, 2007 NCAA; 8.52 H/9 MiL Totals
Small samples, and I’m not saying he’ll be Brandon Webb, I promise. I just think that him being “hittable” is the least of my concerns if he’s getting .72/.63 GB%.
Thanks for the answers on Mortensen and Herron!
as for the draft question, does anyone else get the feeling that christian friedrich is the guy the cardinals will end up drafting? he’s a college lefty with pretty good stuff (absolutely filthy curveball), and he is going to put up dominating strikeout numbers this year. the guy i would like to see them get is harold martinez, the power high school 3rd baseman from miami.
what did several of you mean when you said you don’t think the Cards will do the right thing regarding Molina and Anderson? that they will keep Anderson and let Molina walk when he gets too espensive?
fgc,
that’s a good topic i’m sure we’ll be delving into more. from what little i’ve read, martinez is a good pick.
hunter makes sense for the cardinals because of his sinker.
aaron hicks and isaac galloway are pretty intriguing to me too. but, yeah, i think freidrich will be our man. he makes sense to me but i’m not sure how excited i’d be about it. i’d sort of rather gamble on the high risk/high reward talent.
if not freidrich, my money is on jacob thompson of Virginia.
LeeCard…what they are referring to is that the Cards are more likely to sign Molina to a long term contract b/c of his defense despite the fact that he is a bad offensive player. The point being that Anderson is projected to be a far better offensive player than Molina but organizational philosophy is skewed towards good glove-no hit catchers…especially so long as the manager is TLR.
i also think hicks and galloway could make for exciting picks. some people are now saying hicks may actually be a better prospect as a pitcher now b/c he has shown mid 90’s velocity and a nasty slider, but we will see. i still think i would take him as a centerfielder. hunter is an interesting guy, he has that perfect frame and great stuff, but he also has control problems and reminds me a lot of mark mccormick. if you go watch one of the archived team USA games from this summer you will also see that he has kind of a funky delivery. as for thompson, there is no way he is worth the 13th pick in the draft. i know he has some good college numbers, but he just doesn’t have the stuff to warrant that high of a selection. he is more of a 5th starter type for me.
huh…i heard thompson wasn’t a world beater, but not a 5th starter. i just had read he had such good command and an assortment of pitches to work with, in particular having a good curveball. but i admit i don’t know the players in the draft like i’d like to…yet.
i’m gonna try and make it to more ncaa games this spring, iowa is only about 30 min away. the big 10 isn’t neccessarily the best conference in the world, but i’m interested in seeing Zach Putman of Michigan and Ryne White of Purdue, whenever they come to town
Bryan: “This is both correct, and it’s incorrect. Look at the Cardinals draft last season — and look at how much their total cost was on signing bonuses in the draft. Now remember, Kyle Russell was deemed too expensive for their budget. If Russell’s million was too expensive, Porcello’s 11M was impossible, given the budget Luhnow gets from ownership.”
Oh, it was no shot at Luhnow, it was a shot at ownership. But in the end I would think you should be able to convince an owner to give you that kind of money. Also, I think any team that signs A-Rod for that kind of money is stupid. You could have 25 Porcello’s for A-Rods money. As we all know Porcello was an instant top 25 prospect. Hell if the Cards would have just taken the money they saved on Edmonds and not made the Izturis and Miles signings theres Porcello right there, or even just Edmonds as thats all the guarantees. When it comes down to it, I think someone in organization has got to convince Dewitt that it’s much smarter to spend on the draft, no matter how hard it is.
Also, I’m not so sure about the Marshall/Garcia thing. At the same ages Garcia was at AA and Marshall was still in college. Marshall also tops out at 90 and sits at 87. I believe Garcia has better velocity than that and also better sink.
Again nice of you to stop by and answer some of the bonus round questions.
“I don’t expect them to make the right decision.”
I wish this didn´t agree with this and allow it to sum up so much of my feelings regarding the current powers that be at Busch - but I do and it does.
Nicholas asked, “Bryan, at what age/level/# of games or other criteria are you comfortable projecting a player’s ceiling or ability.”
It’s a combination of factors, really. I feel I am far better comparing pitchers than I am position players, because with pitchers, you can first narrow down with the arsenal. Handedness, height, fastball velocity, out pitch should all be the first determining factors in making a comparison. However, statistics need to align, and I think you need a full minor league season worth before you can really start thinking about it. Now I was comparing Andrew Miller to Chuck Finley since he was a sophomore in college, and Mark Hamilton to Ryan Klesko since his junior season. Sometimes you get intuitive feels like that — scouts get it all the time — but it’s hardly something to depend upon. And also, think of it like how PECOTA makes comparisons: the more games under a player’s belt, the easier it becomes to find a comp.
haltz said, “Small samples, and I’m not saying he’ll be Brandon Webb, I promise. I just think that him being “hittable” is the least of my concerns if he’s getting .72/.63 GB%.”
It’s a very fair point, but I’m glad you aren’t saying he’s Brandon Webb. I think one thing I (or someone else) definitely should look at is the hit ratios of sinkerballers in the minor leagues, compared to everyone else. Marc Normandin talked about this in his Carlos Silva player profile this fall — intuitively, it would seem sinkerballers should improve their BABIP as the defense around them improves. However, I think when you combine Mortensen’s H/9 with his college BB/9, you see a pitcher still learning how to spot his pitches, which provoked my comment on his command.
And per the draft comments, I think Hunter, Friedrich and Jacob Thompson are all along the same plane. I like Hunter the best, but if Friedrich improves his fastball command, he’s very good in the Jaime Garcia mold. But I’m with fgc, I absolutely love Harold Martinez five months removed from the draft.
Yep, I have no idea if the command is a fluke. That’s where my concern lies. I don’t think it necessarily needs to be coupled though. (Another sample warning: I also forgot how many bats he’s been missing as well in his so-far professional stint. He’s probably the player I’m most interested in following next year.)
We know GB go for hits more often than any type of batted ball, and I just realized I’m preaching to the choir on the NCAA BABIP levels, aren’t I? Same goes for the lower minors of course. I would be shocked if Mort and Webb weren’t the norm.
the 5th starter comment was probably a little overboard, but i just don’t like pitchers that rarely break 90 mph in the first round let alone at 13. he reminds me a lot of james simmons last year, and i said i would be fine with simmons at 36 last year as you couldn’t match his polish. thompson would be a fantastic pickup in that 37-40 range (where it appears our comp pick will be this year), but i think someone will snatch him up before that.
i am glad to see that bryan agrees with me on martinez, that kid is a stud. of course that probably also means he won’t be available. however, there is still a lot of talent that should be available at 13. gerrit cole has an absolutely electric arm, kyle shipworth is a stud catching prospect, aaron hicks may be the best athlete in the draft, and ethan martin is another powerful prospect at the hot corner. as for the college guys, yonder alonso can flat out mash and he may be the best pure hitter in the draft, hunter has great stuff, and friedrich could be a fast moving lefty in the zito mold if his fastball command improves. it should be a lot of fun to follow this spring.
I don’t want to be contentious but I am finding it hard to understand the high esteem that some folks here have for some of the Cardinals prospects. The most prominent of those is Mark Hamilton. Bryan mentions Hamilton in the same sentence as Ryan Howard (though he does state he’s not as good) and then says that he has Ryan Klesko written all over him. At age 22 Klesko was putting up far better stats in AAA than Hamilton did “under the radar” in A. At 23, Hamilton’s current age, Klesko was creaming the ball in the major leagues. Hamilton appears to be a non prospect to me, blocked far more effectively by his own limitations than by Albert’s presence at 1b and yet he is in almost everybody’s top 15. To me he, Cody Haerther and others are poor man’s Chris Duncan’s who might, if given an unwarranted chance, oddly perform better than expected in the majors but who, at this point, have played long enough to show that they have very limited upside. What am I missing here?
easy-
Like Bryan said, the cards system is ok. It looks a lot better when compared to other NL Central systems but the NL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball.
I think some people are bullish on players because the system was god awful a few years ago so people are excited to see some change. I mean if you compare Tampa Bay to STL it’s not even funny. Also Detroit while wining has been drafing some straight studs as well.