| Hoffpauir | Ryan | Jimenez | Izturis | Miles | Kennedy | |
| Hit for average | Yes | Maybe | Probably not | No | Yes | No |
| Draws walks | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | No |
| Hits for power | No | No | No | No | No | No |
| Speed on basepaths | No | Yes | No? | Yes | No | No |
| Defense @ 2nd | Average | Very Good | Average | Very Good | Average | Above Average |
| Defense @ SS | Poor | Above Average | Poor | Above Average | Poor | Below Average |
I don’t think Jarrett Hoffpauir is really ready for the majors. He had some fluky spikes in his BABIP and probably power as well in AA that aren’t going to be maintained. He’s not going to slug over .500 in the majors, he’ll probably be under .450 more often than not. His BABIP isn’t going to be .352 or even the .321 we saw in Memphis but expect it more around the league averages for the NL, which was near .300 last year. So if you’re expecting him to post the numbers he did in Springfield or Memphis, we’ll you’re expecting too much. If the Cardinals keep him in Memphis to begin the season, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But Hoffpauir has all the skills that Aaron Miles has, plus a little extra. It’s not a stretch to think that he could outhit Miles next season.
Brendan Ryan was injured throughout a lot of his time in the minors. I’m still not entirely sure what to make of him. I think the .289/.342/.406 that he posted in the majors is around his ceiling offensively. He does offer TRUE versatility on the field, good defense and speed. He’s miscast as a leadoff hitter but really slots well in the bottom of the order.
Jimenez is 30 years old and has never stuck in the majors. To expect him to be more than an below-average, above-replacement-level second baseman is probably asking too much. He’ll draw his fair share of walks but if the team is pressed for middle infielders because of injuries or what not, I’d rather test out Ryan and Hoffpauir over Jimenez.
The hope is that Izturis can recapture some of the hitting abilities he had early in his career. He’s also capable of posting a sub-.300 OBP and being a massive liability. I didn’t like this signing from the beginning but it is what it is. He should still be a decent fielder and fine on the basepaths.
Adam Kennedy may be done as a MLB player. 2nd baseman as a group don’t age well because they’re typically the less talented players who couldn’t stick at SS.
It’s important not to expect Hoffpauir and Brendan Ryan to be world-beaters. They’re not and they never will be. Offensively, neither projects as more than slightly above average. I personally prefer Hoffpauir’s skillset from the above group but it wouldn’t hurt with a little more seasoning in AAA to make sure that the gains he made last year don’t disappear. If thee veterans force Brendan Ryan to start the year in AAA, that’s really not where he belongs. The only hope is that someone goes belly-up like Junior Spivey or injured (not that I’d ever wish an injury on anyone). As has typified recent Cardinal squads, the problem with the veterans isn’t money or length of contract but the playing time they steal from players with potential. If nothing else, at least we’ll still have the opportunity to track them in DPRs when the year begins. . . . .
The impact this all has on the minors is that the middle infield backs up to AA where Jose Martinez will probably start the year. What happens to Tyler Greene is a mystery. I’m not sure he’ll be healthy to start the season but it’s possible that he’ll shift to 3rd in Memphis or stay at Springfield for another year. If this kindles recent memories of another situation the Cardinals have been in, it should. They still have a glut of marginal outfielders that they have to sort through as well: Duncan, Ankiel, Barton, Schumaker, Stavinoha, Mather, Haerther. Procrastination on discerning who can really perform in the big leagues is only going to hinder the team in future seasons.
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erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Not sure why Hoff gets the affirmative “hit for avg” tag while Ryan only gets a maybe. Ryan´s career BA is better than Hoff´s. I´d also give Hoff the “maybe” tag for power due to his .125 career ISO slugging and the fact that it was above even this avg last year which shows it may be improving still.
Also not really sure why Duncan was thrown in the marginal outfielders group. Ankiel could even have a case made for him, but he’s so raw I’ll let him remain there, but Duncan has proven he can hit well and just needs to field better
Duncan’s defense is really so bad that it mitigates much of his offensive contributions. they’d be wise to trade him to an AL team, IMO. he’s the best of that list, probably but he’s still on the marginal-ish side to me too.
I really can’t understand why Miles was resigned. He offers very little, particularly when his presence will limit opportunities for both Ryan and Hoff.
If 2008 is really a rebuilding year for the Cards then why waste time/at bats on veterans with limited skills?
I love this diary Erik. Of course I’m also in the choir already. Agree on most every point you made.
If you’re foolishly going for broke when the assets aren’t there (like Houston) this move does not accomplish anything towards that objective. If you’re going to start relying on the system and use 08′ to build for 09′, then this move does nothing for that either. In fact it impedes it.
I’ve talked about what all this means to Hoff and Ryan too, but you raise an interesting point. This and Jimenez signing affect Greene and Martinez too. Taken by itself, an Izturis signing, a Jimenez signing (especially conisdering it’s a minor league deal), or a Miles signing don’t mean much. But when you combine all 3 it ought to leave you scratching your head. It leaves me wondering what the direction really is and it’s irritating.
I now see it was Azruavatar’s post. Sorry! Great points made regardless.
Duncan has made some pretty sweet catches. I rember a few that showed up on ESPN web gems. He does seem to mess up the routine plays. I would say he has the speed and the athleticism to play average defense if given more time to learn. Maybe he will improve this year. I wonder how he would play at 3b ?
Duncan could not play 3B.
It’s not that easy to just change positions. I like how everyone says Anderson should just change positions. Anderson even said that there is no way he could play any position other than catcher. You must realize that these guys have always been one of the best players on their teams growing up so they have stuck to one position on the most part. There are some guys who can play multiple positions well but it is just pretty rare.
Why is the Cardinals system so weak on middle infield talent? I mean it seems like evey guy grades out to average at best at the MLB level if they make it there. I guess one could argue Green is the most impresive prospect but he has been hurt and just does not seem to have a chance at being a success. The rest of the guys are fairly average at best. I have seen mixed reviews on Martinez being most likely a future 2B.
It just is kind of sad when the system is so weak in the middle infield.
Maybe even weaker than we realize. Absolutely the only reason I can think of why the Cardinals would let Miles go (the rational thing to do) and then resign him later on is that they may have gotten new information on either Kennedy or Izturis regarding their recovery from injuries. If this is the case it’s most likely that Kennedy’s recovery has become more complicated. A much worse scenario is that Izturis is more compromised than they thought when they signed him. Sorry to suggest that a bad situation may be even worse than we thought but I just couldn’t come up with any other reason for a move like this.
carioca - I’d agree that I underrated Ryan’s ability to hit for average.
charlie - I don’t think Duncan is just going to “field better” some day. His defense in LF is what it is — bad. He really hasn’t shown any ability to hit lefties either. He destroys RHP, which is valuable, but let’s not overstate his skillset. erik hit it right on the button in that his defense hands back a substantial number of runs (10-15) it’s so bad.
ICBIRDFAN - the cards system isn’t unique in being weak on middle infield talent. there aren’t that many elite SS’s to be had. Hopefully Kozma progresses quickly.
azru- You are correct. The only way you get elite talent is to generally draft guys with very high upside that have a lot to learn. We have all seen that the Cards tend to draft the college type aka.. Hoffpauir who are safe, should be able to contribute some albeit not a ton who have generally little to no real high upside. Green was drafted from college which is odd that he was seen as so high in potential. Was he drafted out of HS by a team.
There are not alot of Hanley Ramirez types to be had for sure. I think I am too hard on the farm at times, but it woudl be nice to have some guy in the minors who just makes you say “wow” at SS or 2B, even if they have some glaring holes. You might be able to patch holes, but it is hard to create “wow” from guys who just have no shot at “wow”.
I think we may be underestimating Hoffy’s eventual contribution to the Cards–at least in ‘09 and beyond. His defense is a plus according to the numbers, as well as Deric McCamey. Furthermore, his Davenport translation from AAA was a league-average MLB hitter right now (and he hit much better on the road than at the Memphis home park, if that means anything).
And of course, Hoffpauir’s AA batting implies there may be some *real* offensive potential down the road….
Middle infielders (like catchers) sometimes develop their offense a bit later in their careers, so I remain cautiously optimistic about Hoffy.
Awfully hard on Kennedy, no? He could post a better line than anyone on that list next year, and has actually done it in the major leagues.
I’m not convinced he showed up to the park one day and was completely terrible in every way.
I suspect he played with his injury most of the year. The guy couldn’t move laterally at 2nd base. I just thought it was because I had overrated him defensively, until we found out about the knee.
Tyler Greene was taken in the 2nd round by the Atlanta Braves out of high school in 2002, he instead chose to attend Georgia Tech.
I like Hoff, guys who walk more than they strike out are somewhat rare commodities. If he can slug .400 or better he will be one of the better hitting second basemen that the Cardinals have had in a long time, due to his plate discipline. I really wish the Cardinals would have given this guy a long look this season, but with recent developments that seems very unlikely.
every time i hear aaron miles name i want to throw up.
Erik/Azru, since you’re both on record as down on Duncan’s defense, I’d love to see one of you to a through analysis of the subject. From where I sit, he’s below average but not quite as bad as you make him out to be. Baseball Prospectus, for example, had him above replacement level (though below average) in the outfield in both 06 and 07.
it’s pretty simple. duncan created 73 runs, which is pretty good. but in the field, only pat burrell was worse according to pmr. but then he also made 18 less plays then the average LF. I figure a play for an OF is worth about .8 runs. (i’m just guestimating, az would probably be better at this.) so overall, he was worth about 58 runs..that’s the exact amount of runs created by david eckstein last season.
i personally like duncan, but players of his ilk are a dime a dozen. a couple of dunc’s batting comps at bbref are #1 luke scott and #2 thru age 26 is kevin mench. also, he has a .632 career ops versus lefties, the man needs to be platooned. he’s also not going to be much more valuable in a trade, so now would be a good time to do see what he could fetch.
It’s a rare lefty that doesn’t have give away at least .200 OPS points when facing lefties. The nature of the beast.
And .290/.380/.550 first half would place his trade value a lot higher than it is now. He’s perfectly capable of doing that, he has proven he can. Playing through his injury killed his numbers last year.
I’m with SB12. Love the post, great Sunday reading, but I think you are overly skeptical in re: Kennedy and Duncan with little support.
As for Dunc’s ability to get better. I am firmly behind the guy, definitely inexact, but I know in going to batting practice every time I see again, there is no one working harder on getting better than Dunc. He is miscast as a LF, but his bat is special if you believe in his first half…
As for Kennedy he is not a world beater, but I’d bet on him being league average or better next year, that’s way better than the prospects (next year) or anyone else on that list…
Duncan’s an above average hitter, special, whatever you want to call it. But the fact that he’s an NL LF means that he’s among some of the best good hit / no field players in the game. When you’re a worse fielder than Barry Bonds and Pat Burrell, it’s time to go play in the AL. Really, he’d have to put up 1.000 OPS seasons to be a real plus player out there is he’s giving away that many runs (and relative to the worst fielders in the game). Think about what it means to be 20 runs better than your average LF hitting-wise.
Here’s what I’m having trouble with on Duncan. Baseball Prospectus has him just 5 runs below average defensively last year (including his stints in RF and at 1B) and 1 run above replacement. Compare that to say, genuine butcher Adam Dunn, who was 18 below average and 9 below replacement. (I also know that Bernie M. has a range factor number he likes to trot out to make the case that Duncan is a decent fielder.)
I’m not fluent enough in the various defensive metrics to know which is best, but it sure seems like there’s at least some evidence that Duncan is passable in the field.
Glut check — instead — of Gut Check
re: Kennedy
Take a quick look at his 2005 line: .300/.354/.370
and 2006: .273/.326/.384
Anyone think he’s going to outproduce those lines given that he’s going to be 3 years removed from 2005 and 2 years older than his 2006 line? 2bman don’t typically age well. I think you’re underestimating the aging curves for 32 year old 2B. Tango’s got a nifty aging curve plot near the end although this study is a little old. Here’s another one from Nate Silver that has a specific graph for 2nd basemen. Note that they have a steeper decline phase than the average ballplayer.
DCGreg - If you want to evaluate defense, the best metrics are, imo: UZR, RZR, PMR
The reason Duncan doesn’t look so bad on the BP metrics is, in part, because the replacement level is set far too low for FRAR. If you want to use their metrics, and I’m not a fan of them, use the FRAA as your replacement level. Also remember that those are counting stats so Adam Dunn is going to look worse since he played more games. You can use their adjusted games stat to turn FRAA into a psuedo rate stat.
The 2007 data for UZR hasn’t been released yet (if it will be at all).
The RZR stats are at The Hardball Times but a blogger by the name of Justin Inaz (goes by jinaz at The Book blog) who blogs about the Reds has converted all the RZR data into runs because RZR is a rate (plus there are out of zone plays to account for in terms of RZR). Anyway, RZR put him at around -13 runs last season.
PMR is in terms of plays and as erik noted 1 play = roughly .8 runs. Tango explains this in detail over at The Book blog in terms of linear weights. Anyway, PMR had Duncan as -18 plays or about -14 runs.
A newer system that is a psuedo-play-by-play defensive metric which looks promising is being done by Dan Fox at BP and it’s called SFR (Simple Fielding Runs) you can read about it here. That system pegged Duncan at -16 runs. All the advanced defensive metrics agree that he’s about -10 to -15 runs with the glove.
If you want to read a more detailed description of the fielding stats (with the exception of SFR) written in plain english, I’d check out parts 3a and 3b of Justin’s Player Value series. They’re good primers.
Thanks for the explainer, Azru. You’ve sold me.