Keith Law was kind enough to do a little email Q+A with the me. As many of you I’m sure already know, Keith is the lead baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. of ESPN.com. Before joining ESPN, he spent 4½ years with the Blue Jays as a Special Assistant to the GM, and he also was previously a writer for Baseball Prospectus. He’s a Harvard grad, so naturally he intimidates the crap out of me. I kid, I kid. Thanks again to Keith for taking his time to share his perspective on the Cardinals.
How do you see the Cardinal farm system from where it was 5 years ago and where do you feel it is now?
There’s no question it’s better. Their farm system five years ago was extremely thin, and their best prospects were all low-probability pitchers with injury histories or delivery problems. I don’t think their system is great right now - probably just south of the median - but it’s definitely better.
What’s your take on Jeff Luhnow, in terms of his strengths and weaknesses?
I’ve found his drafts to generally be conservative, surprisingly so for an organization that has historically spent good money in the draft. When he’s gone above slot, it hasn’t worked out so far (Greene, Hamilton), in part because they didn’t go for the high-ceiling types that merit above-slot bonuses. I also think the Cardinals are too rigid in their faith in the predictive power of college statistics; I worked with college stats while I was with the Jays even before I went out to see players, and in my opinion, their value is very limited. On the plus side, the Cardinals’ system is going to produce more big-league value than it has in a while. There are maybe a dozen guys in their system who will at least sit on a big-league bench or pitch in middle relief. They just lack star-level prospects after the big guy. They’ve also done well when they went away from the conservative/college-centric approach and taken high-upside high school players, notably Rasmus, but even Anderson (whose defense I don’t like) is going to play in the big leagues and has a chance to be pretty good.
Anthony Reyes has gone from top prospect in the Cardinal’s system to a pitcher having a difficult transition to an unwanted young pitcher — if you were scouting him for another MLB team, what level of interest would you have and do you think he can still have a respectable career?
I think you always have to give some benefit of the doubt to a young pitcher who struggles under Tony La Russa; his track record there is miserable. That said, we’re talking about a guy who has average stuff and no out pitch, and whose command is significantly worse in the majors than it was in the minors, AND who had big-time injury trouble in college. He’s a guy for whom you don’t want to give anything up; you hope you can snag him on waivers when he’s out of options, or that the Cards just decide to turn the page on him and give him away for 30-40 cents on the dollar.
Is there a hitter, past or present who you’d compare Colby Rasmus to?
I don’t do the comparison game - most hitters strike me as unique. How often is a Stanford RHP compared to Mike Mussina? Why do we typically only hear white players compared to white players, and black to black? Anyway, Rasmus looks to me like a guy who’ll draw walks, hit for plus power and average, and provide above-average defense in center. That’s nothing you couldn’t glean from his ‘07 stat line. He’s got good wrists, takes a short path to the ball, and centers everything. If he was in the Yankees’ system, we’d all be nauseated from hearing about him all the time.
What are the chances rule 5 draftee Brian Barton sticks on the roster this spring, and what do you feel is his upside?
Fourth outfielder. I think he’ll stick - they need someone just like him.
Who in the Cardinal system do you like?
Aside from Rasmus, I’d say Mitch Boggs. I’m surprised he doesn’t miss more bats with that fastball/curveball combo, but he throws strikes and should at least end up a power reliever if he can’t start. I like Tyler Herron as a guy with good command & feel who has some projection on his fastball, which is fringe-average right now.
Do you still think Adam Ottavino’s upside is a MLB reliever?
Yep. Delivery, stuff, command all point to the pen. I did not understand that pick at all; I don’t think any other club was on him that high.
You didn’t seem all that enthused by the selection of Pete Kozma. Care to elaborate?
I have no problem with taking a high school player in the first round, obviously, but my philosophy is that if you’re willing to take on the development risk associated with a high school player, take a player whose upside will provide you with a suitable return. Kozma is a nice player with a soft swing that’s not going to generate power; he throws the bat at the ball and extends his arms way too early, and gets his weight out front early as well. I know the beta on an 18-year-old is really high, but if you offered me an over/under of .400 on his MLB career slugging percentage and forced me to choose, I’d take the under. That said, he plays a good shortstop and people love his makeup, so he has a low chance of providing a zero return.
Does P.J. Walters even have a shot at cracking a big league rotation with his low velocity?
Not in my book. I suppose a club like the Padres, in a huge park, could take a flier on him, but I think he’s an org guy.
Last baseball question…Just a take a crazy guess…who do you see the Cardinals taking first in the 2008 draft?
The Cards pick #13, and on my preseason prospect rankings, #13 was Christian Friedrich, [ed. note, also my prediction. Great minds...] a left-handed pitcher from the University of Eastern Kentucky. He’s got plus velocity and a plus curveball, one of the best in the draft, but his control is shaky and his delivery has some effort to it. I do like him quite a bit, and I think the curveball is good enough to mitigate the other risks.
What book are you reading right now and what’s in your queue?
Currently reading Gabriel Garcia Marquez’ “Love in the Time of Cholera.” I received a whole mess of books for Christmas, so I’m not sure what’s next - Gregory Maguire’s “Wicked,” Arthur Koestler’s “Darkness at Noon,” Edith Wharton’s “The Age of Innocence,” Moore/Gibbons’ “Watchmen” are all in the queue.
You can catch Keith at his blog at ESPN.com for his thoughts on baseball and you can get his thoughts on books and food (and sometimes baseball there, too) at his own personal blog The Dish.
Filed under: Adam Ottavino, Anthony Reyes, Brian Barton, Christian Freidrich, Colby Rasmus, Interviews, Jeff Luhnow, Keith Law, Mitch Boggs, Tyler Herron | Tagged: Interviews, Keith Law
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Awesome stuff! Thanks to Keith for taking the time to respond. I disagree with his Ottavino assessment but otherwise I think its a fairly accurate portrayal of our system. Still a ways to go…but getting there. Also remember that Luhnow is still probably learning on the job.
While I do disagree with Law most of the time I do find his take interesting. I just seems he is always more pessimistic then others but that gives a new viewpoint.
On an editorial note your question of “Who in the Cardinal system do you like? ” didn’t get bolded and ran into the Barton question.
Oops. Thanks for pointing that out.
I would have liked to see a question on Garcia. I also don’t agree with his statements on ottovino, but everything else seems pretty reasonable.
Good interview and info. I agree with almost everything he said. We’re all encouraged that the Cards know they have to build up their farm system but I don’t think they’ve shown a lot of evidence that they know how to do it.
The draft, particularly in the early rounds, is not the place for the stat heads to have their influence. We drafted a bunch of college guys last year who took a lot of walks in college and got off to good starts in the low minors. Most of them tailed off by August. I predict that virtually none, other than Derba who will make it on his defense with his batting eye a bonus, will see the major leagues. I’m certainly hoping that the Cards aren’t giving out their half million bonus bucks for 16 year old Latin players who show they can take a walk or pitchers who can keep the ball low. I’m hoping they’re giving it to guys who can run like deer, have good power, can throw a ball through a brick wall and have the attitude prerequisite to learn the rest. The stats guys can come in handy in identifying sleeper players in higher levels of our and other teams’ systems but don’t have much to offer at draft time or signing teenagers. On the good side Luhnow and Mo seem like intelligent, non dogmatic guys who will learn to do the job. Hope it’s quick.
P.S. If you get a chance tell Keith that Love in the Time of Cholera isn’t worth plowing through and recommend 100 Years of Solitude.
i have made it known that i don’t often agree with law, but i think i agree with pretty much every thing he said in that interview. he finally gave colby his due, he said pj doesn’t throw hard enough, he finally admitted that anderson can be a good player, and he agreed that ottavino was an overdraft. those are all things i have said in the past.
Great read. Law’s perspective is always interesting and undoubtedly supportable, I just take it with a grain of salt like everything else. The top 10 prospects each year have a pretty good shot at making it, but beyond that I am a big believer in having quantity and the Cards seem to finally be putting that together…
That said, should they have taken Porcello - undoubtedly and indubitably!
Easy: I read One Hundred Years in 2005 - fabulous book, one of my favorites, and far better than Cholera. Chronicle of a Death Foretold is also very good.
fewgoodcards: I take some issue with your phrasing of these two statements - “he finally gave colby his due,” “he finally admitted that anderson can be a good player.” I’ve been consistent on both of those positions since I started writing again in 2006. I have always believed in Anderson’s bat; it’s his arm and his actions behind the plate I don’t like. As for Rasmus, show me one place where I didn’t give him “his due.”
birdland - we just don’t know about Garcia because of his injury. Elbow injuries of this magnitude (judging by missed time) don’t typically resolve themselves without surgery. Let’s see him on a mound again before we assess his chances.
Nice to see Law do the Q&A in the first place, then follow it up with a visit. I also liked seeing him mention Herron, whose numbers are really growing on me, fringy fastball or no.
And I liked reading Easy’s take, that the stats guys are especially valuable for assessing current minor leaguers, and maybe less so for the actual draft.
keith, it just seemed you weren’t willing to put him up in the conversation with guys like upton and maybin although he has shown he belongs there. it seemed like from your comments in this piece that you are putting him in that league now.
As for Anderson, I am worried about the power outage at the end of last year: low isolated power despite higher LD%. What should we expect out of the guy? Does it depend on whether he tries AA again? And about the defense, I just hope he’s passable and that the traditional Cardinal catcher model (all defense, no bat) still required by the time he’s ready.
Keith, glad we agree on Marquez. If you haven’t read it try Love and Other Demons an oddly charming novella that’s far less demanding on the reader than his other stuff.
if you were a betting person, which players would your money be on?
If Ottavino is a bullpen guy. he will be a top of the line Setup or Closer.
Awesome interview! I agree with almost all of what he said except maybe about Ottavino…
“I think you always have to give some benefit of the doubt to a young pitcher who struggles under Tony La Russa”
I was wondering what he means by that?
Keith Law, nice get.
“Awesome interview! I agree with almost all of what he said except maybe about Ottavino…
“I think you always have to give some benefit of the doubt to a young pitcher who struggles under Tony La Russa”
I was wondering what he means by that?”
Rick Ankiel? Dan Haren? Anthony Reyes?
He probably means every young pitcher….ever. Run Adam, run!
“I think you always have to give some benefit of the doubt to a young pitcher who struggles under Tony La Russa; his track record there is miserable. That said, we’re talking about a guy who has average stuff and no out pitch, and whose command is significantly worse in the majors than it was in the minors”
Well, one thing leads to another. Seems the average stuff and command problems didn’t show until he became a Cardinal. However, it’s been gone long enough that it’s probably never coming back. They can’t afford to keep doing this.
Glad to hear another respected voice sees the system on the rise, but how much value is there if these guys top out as back-of-rotation starters and utility players? I think Mr. Law is right-on that Luhnow & Friends need to go above-slot on guys based on high potential, instead of focusing on who is most projectable.