With the addition of Freese the Cardinals now have two possible successors to Scott Rolen in the mix. Or perhaps I should say they more likely have two heirs of Scott Spiezio? Both players do come with their question marks regarding whether or not they can become regulars. I thought I’d do a little comparison shopping of the two third sackers and see who comes out with the advantage.
Scouting perspective
Allen Craig: Craig is 23 years old. He stands at 6-2, 190 pounds. He has good power and a line drive machine. He hits the ball to all fields with his short yet powerful compact swing. Isn’t really a power pull guy. Very aggressive hitter. Questions on whether his glove will play at third, but the early reports are that he can handle the position adequately.
David Freese: Freese is going to turn 25 this spring. He is 6-2, 220 lbs. A polished college hitter with power potential. Patient. Strong, has good strike zone judgment and good bat speed. Arm strength a plus, he even started a few games as a pitcher in college. Lacks fluidity and range at 3B.
This is a goofy little chart I came up with to illustrate the differences tools-wise of the players, and Freese and Craig are pretty close. Craig has the advantage in the important power category and ‘hitting for average’ category, but it’s not like Freese is far behind him. Two big advantages Freese has is with his size and ability to control the strike zone.
Statistical performance
Let’s just go straight to another groovy little chart based on both players performance in at the high A level.
Other then walks, Craig has the advantage in every category. But let’s also keep in mind context of leagues and parks. The FSL is the most power suppressive leagues in the A+ class, whereas the California League is the most power conducive. League average ISO in the FSL is .122, in the Cal it’s .155. On the other hand, Lake Elsinore Diamond is doubly more suppressive on the long ball then Roger Dean. So again, they’re not that far apart.
Wrapping it up:
Yep, these guys are basically the same. The only big difference I find, and that’s if you want to call it a big difference, is that Craig is one year younger. Freese being a 24 in A ball knocks his status back a bit, but it’s hard to fault him since he was blocked by Chase Headley. I like Craig a little better because of the power and line drives, but then I like Freese because he’s big, patient and I think his ground ball tendencies could be curbed. Give me grape. No, wait. Give me cherry…
Hearkening back to the prospect SAT’s for a moment, here’s what I see–
Craig-Ty Wigginton-Garrett Atkins
Freese-Scott Spiezio-Chad Tracy
If Craig is my # 11 prospect, then Freese would probably land #14-16ish.
I hope this amalgam of info kinda helps give a little perspective in what the Cardinals got in return for Jim Edmonds. It’ll be interesting to see where Freese starts his season. Will he jump to AAA, or will he be in AA along with Craig? If so, will they split the DH/3B duties between them? Both could certainly benefit from the more experience at the hot corner. Since Freese is older, I could see him leapfrog Craig and start in AAA.
Filed under: Allen Craig, David Freese
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
i would think that they would send freese up to aaa. they both need to play everyday and in the field too. we need to see what weve got as soon as possible because were going to need a replacement sooner than later. itll be interesting to see what they do next year, its always nice to have a bit of competition.
Freese probably is what he is at this point. I’ll go with the minorleaguesplits numbers and assume he’s not much of a third baseman, which wouldn’t be too surprising. I don’t think there’s much of a precedent for 24-yo in A ball being ML contributors, blocked or not. Or fifth year seniors that played JuCo ball. Dude’s window is closing and he’s going to have to get a whole lot better in a hurry, but that’s not a shock to me since he came back in the Edmonds trade.
Remember, though, that Freese only played 2 years of minor ball so far and has done so respectably. Interesting note about him being blocked in the Pads organization. It’s been said he also has catcher potential, but I think the organization is set there. However, that could indicate an ability to be a super-sub. Mmmm… Rex Hudler.
Basically, I don’t think he’s showing strong MLB potential at this point, and if he does in our organization, it’d have to be at 3B, given Brian Anderson. That said, one of them has to be our top 3B prospect in AA/AAA, and it ain’t Travis Hansens .534 OPS. Nor is it Rico.
It’s almost as if you’re implying that no one is blocking them currently at the hot corner in Memphis! Oh, wait…
I’m just glad we have two decent 3B prospects in the system (Craig and Freese), with Arnoldi Cruz not a bad #3 option. Not since Terry Pendleton have we developed a decent 3B prospect of our own (I’m not counting Zeile).
“Remember, though, that Freese only played 2 years of minor ball so far and has done so respectably.”
I know, but being drafted at 23 as a fifth year senior probably doesn’t help his comp case. The catcher thing is interesting. I’d be really impressed if the organization tried something crazy like that with him.
Brain Barden anyone? Do people realize that prior to last year this guy put up 3 seasons in AAA of .800+ OPS (max .849). That he has been the voted the best defensive 3rd baseman in every league he’s played in including being voted best college defensive 3rd baseman his last year in college. OK, last year he dropped waayyy off. Maybe that was a fluke. Nagging injury? Personal problem? History would say this guy will put up about a .800 OPS this year in Memphis. He’ll probablynever slug like Craig or Freese but he may be just as good an all around 3B if he returns to form.
I”m not sure I’d give Freese a plus for physicality. I assume that is based on height/weight? The Cards asked Craig to slim down after his first year and he did so. They said he was in the best shape of any player in camp.
Barden is someone people overlook in this organization, not sure why. I really want him to start at AAA, Craig or Freese at AA and the other at A+ and then move from there.
barden’s upside is as a utility player, IMO. He’s a very good fielder and has had good numbers but he’s very much has been a product of his parks, and was overmatched in his 2nd tour of AAA.
PECOTA’s Upside scores last year for Freese and Barden-
Freese 47.8
Barden 25.6
I would’ve loved it if they’d handed him the util inf job, and given Ryan SS, instead of signing the worst player imaginable right out of the gate in Izturis. Now it looks like he doesn’t really have a place in the organization.
adequately enough=superfluously redundant
Your comment that Barden struggled in his 2nd year at AAA shows you really haven’t looked closely at him. He had seasons of 350+, 500+, and 500+ plate appearances with a combined OPS in those years of about .840. Only in his 4th AAA year did he struggle which is why I think last year was an anomoly.
I’m not versed in Petco upside scores but I know a little about ZIPS projections which show Barden’s .740 projection as higher than 5 of our 8 projected starters. Aren’t those park adjusted as well?
Do you really think Freese will be more than a utility player?
Freese was named the best-fielding third baseman in the California League this year.
He has also excelled wherever he has played. He was named this year to the CL All-Star team at mid-season and at the end of the year. Last year his OPS was .860 in his first half-year of pro experience (262 AB over two levels). The year before he was named the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year, in his last year in college.
I wouldn’t underestimate this guy. It will be interesting to see how he handles AA or AAA pitching this year.
i agree that craig is the better prospect. he put up bigger numbers in arguably the worst hitters’ league in the minors while freese didn’t even slug .500 as a 24 year old in the hitter happy california league. it will be very interesting to see what they do with them next year as it appears that both still need some work at 3rd, but they will likely be splitting the duty unless one of them is moved to the outfield. whatever happens, this organization really needs one of the these guys to turn into a quality regular at the hot corner, but at this point it doesn’t seem likely that either will.
I’d give freese a 40/60 shot at being a regular. barden 15/85. context is important. barden has played in some bandboxes, which have inflated his stats. i’ll look at it again to make sure i’m not mistaken, though. i think freese has a decent shot at a mike lamb type career.
People are vastly overestimating Barden’s abilities here. He’s a 26 year old in AAA who has shown below average power for a corner infielder. He doesn’t walk enough to compensate for his lack of power and he’s not toting around a Scott Rolen like defense. He might make for an adequate utility player a la Scott Spiezio but he is in no way a regular everyday player. The Cardinals got him off of waivers in the middle of the year. This isn’t a player that’s in high demand.
I’ll bet a grape gatorade that either Craig, Freese, or Cruz has a big year and becomes the annointed “3B of the future”.
Yes, but the only people that I think you can annoit the “Position of the Future” is Rasmus as “CF of the Future” and maybe Perez as “Closer of the Future” as they have all-star potential in these roles. Otherwise you are always looking to upgrade positions to all-star level performances. Although I have hope for Cruz…It is blind hope though.
Freese has about a 1-1.5 year window and has several levels to jump. He doesn’t really have the time to have to endure any lengthy adjustment periods. He may be able to handle that, but I’d say he has a battle against time much moreso than Craig. I’d say Craig has 2-2.5 years left and can afford a setback or adjustment period. So for that reason, I’d give Craig a clear edge as far as prospect status.
It’s interesting to note that both of the young acquisitions by the Cardinals this off season have been players who were drafted and started their pro careers at relatively advanced ages. Barton and Freese will each be 25 this year. Barton only had a cup of coffee in AAA and Freese hasn’t seen AA yet yet each has put up very good numbers at the lower levels. It may be that Luhnow and company are ignoring age as a factor in determining potential or that they have insight that age, by itself, is not a major factor in determing potential. If you look at their stats they are actually really impressive if you ignore their age and concentrate on their pro experience. What must one do if you’re 23 and find yourself in class A ball to prove that you’re a prospect? Could it be that their drafting teams recognized their talent but concentrated too much on their age at the lower levels and underrated them enough to let them go? Those of us who follow the minor league prospects closely usually rate the age of a prospect compared with his performance at a certain level as a key to evaluating potential. The Cards seem to be saying that performance compared with a prospect’s experience is more important and they may feel that they’ve stolen a couple of really good talents. It’ll be interesting to watch how these guys actually pan out. This appears to be a test of how much the stat geeks in the organization can contribute to the cause. I, for one, am cautiously optimistic particularly about Barton.
must be the case or marti would be long gone, if ever signed
I like Craig as a future corner outfielder rather than 3rd baseman (his minor league defensive numbers frighteningly echo those of iron glovemen Ryan Braun and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the two most destructive defenders in all of MLB last year, according to Clay Davenport’s Fielding Runs Above Average system). On the other hand, Craig’s hitting for average and power in the FSL was exceptional–at just one year old for the league.
It’s almost impossible to evaluate Freese’s hitting potential, since he was so old for his league. Arnoldi Cruz, however, as others have mentioned, could be a real diamond in the rough.
At an age-appropriate 20 in the Midwest League, Cruz posted a .759 OPS v. the league average of .696; moreover he had a solid 17/25 BB/K ratio, and judging by his very fine DP’s versus errors (as well as his superb range factor), his leather looks good so far.
At 5′ 11″, Cruz may be just a bit undersized for the hot corner, but imagine if he could eventually put up an MLB line of .280/.350/.450 with solid glovework…at *second* base. Intriguing.
We produced Plácido Polanco who did some time at 3b. He ended up being World Series MVP and is a good player.