Good question coming from the comments. I thought I’d address it here.
Alex asks-
I have an unrelated question. What do you guys think of Bernie M’s opinion that the only valuable pieces in our system are Anderson, Rasmus, and Perez?
He sorta took a shot at the blogger community for what he sees as overvaluing our prospects in this thread at Bernie’s Pressbox.
Do we overvalue guys like Garcia, Herron, Mortenson, Ottavino, Maiques, etc..? Are they nothing more than future relievers and utility men like we have now? After visiting this site for several months now I was under the impression that our farm was getting better and we were gonna be getting some good home grown talent up within the next few years, but his comments kind of got me down since I assume he knows what he is talking about.
I too saw this and felt like it was a cheap shot, but I’m not really offended by it. Bernie’s criticism was:
The sooner Cardinals fans can stop believing the Internet/blogger hype on Cardinals “prospects” the better they can be in dealing with reality.
Also not long ago, I came across this at Birdland-
Colleague Joe Strauss was among the first to point out — oh so perfectly — that the Cardinals prospects are too often compared against other Cardinals prospects, leading to a false sense of potential. Columnist Bernie Miklasz brought it up on his radio show this afternoon, telling listeners to be wary of any local coverage of the Cardinals minor league system. The evaluations tend to be myopic, seen through the narrow, rose-colored prism of Cardinaldom.
Thinking this somehow was directed at me, I bristled at it at first. If anything, I’ve felt AZ and I have been fair and even at times harsh with Luhnow and the farm system. We’ve always worked hard to provide balanced info. Neither of us try and set ourselves as experts. We look at a number of different things. We look at the player’s numbers. And not just “baseball card” numbers, we look deeper then then just batting averages, stolen bases and homers. We look at a host of different stats from ball in play rates and isolated power to percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance, and even things like park factors, minor league equivalences, “upside scores” and Davenport Translations. We also read scouting reports, pulling information from those who I would call experts like Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, John Sickels, and a host of others. And you all know we don’t just read and regurgitate their info, at times we go to them ourselves. We’ve spoken to Derrick Goold here just recently, and he has more info on the Cardinal farm system then anyone else at the P-D. We know we’re not experts, but we try and poll the experts as well as look at the numbers and evaluate. At times, we lean on you readers for your eyewitness accounts, and both AZ and I personally attended games this year and shared our insights. Most of all, this is a community, a place for us all to share our thoughts. This blog is about generating discussion.
Anyway, I was told indirectly that the criticism was not about this site. I won’t get into the details. I do feel it to be strange, because there are only a limited number of sites that do what we do and I don’t think the criticism should apply to any of them, either.
Regardless of who it was for, I wanted to just clarify that I do not feel either AZ and I look at the system through Cardinal colored glasses. In a nutshell, my personal opinion of the system is it’s much better then it was 5 years ago, but still very much a work in progress. I think the system is much deeper, but in terms of impact there is Rasmus and a bunch of guys who are good, but have question marks attached to them. Some more then others. I think that point is underscored by a 25 year old Rule 5 pick ends up being immediately put into our Top 10. That says something, and it’s not all that positive. I do however think there are a lot of very interesting sleepers in the bunch, but few are slam dunks. I do not think the Cardinal system is anywhere near on par with teams like the Reds, Dodgers, Rays, etc. Because of this, we have criticized ownership for not spending money on top flight talent, and we have criticized Luhnow for some of his “safer” draft choices.
On the positive, they have a star in the making with Rasmus, a possible closer or set up man in Perez, a starting catcher prospect in Anderson, and at least a few of their starting pitching candidates will make it to the show as starting pitchers, and some others will make it as serviceable relievers. In a perfect world, Garcia, Ottavino, Mortensen and Herron will end up towards the top of the rotation. They also have some players like Craig, Hoffpauir and Jose Martinez who could possibly blossom into starters, and at worst should be useful bench players. And they should probably start reaping a harvest from their investments in Latin America. There are reasons for optimism. If there wasn’t, this blog probably wouldn’t exist.
As far as the farm system goes, I would take what they say with a grain of salt and keep listening to people who actually make it their job to report on the minors. Their job is to cover the big league team, and I have my own doubts on how closely they’ve looked at the system. We are completely focused on the farm team and we do a as much homework as we possibly can. I’ve only made a few hundred bucks on advertising. It’s not my job, it’s my hobby and it’s a fun thing to do, and I like that it’s become a community. I don’t think they are aiming their criticism directly at me based on what I’ve been told. No matter who it’s aimed at, I do find it sad and pathetic that sportswriters continually take shots at bloggers. Frankly, oftentimes I find sportswriters to be a much more ignorant and banal lot then a lot of the bloggers. (I don’t find that so with Joe or Bernie, just to make that clear). We’re not pretending to be sportswriters, we’re just trying to have fun here. Lighten up.
Filed under: editorial
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Don’t sweat it, Bernie is a weathervane.
If you don’t like his opinion today, it will be completely different tomorrow.
although none of us ignore bernie, i’m willing to bet that most of us value your opinion far more than his. the worst case scenario is that he’s right… but this is still a damn exciting learning experience then.
Bernie is a joke. Has he ever done any useful analysis, other than listening in on other people’s conversations and printing rumors that turn out to be false 90% of the time?
Let’s not have this be a “bash Bernie” thread. That’s not what it’s about. There’s a valid tale of caution to be garnered here (i.e. that the second-tier of Cardinal prospects aren’t all that great).
No one at this site has said they were (outside of Rasmus). We like Anderson to be better than Molina in the future. Perez is a good reliever with some control issues. Garcia has nice stats but some health concerns. Those are all pertinent points. No one is claiming that these prospects are going to step in next year and be amazing. Frankly, they don’t have to be to do better than some of the current members of the 25 man roster.
The point is that when you make blanket statements about the “internet” and “bloggers” it comes of as defensive and small. If Bernie ever wanted to offer specific criticism of anything we said here, neither erik nor myself would bristle at that. We both have a lot of respect for the writers at the P-D. They put in a hard days work just like the rest of us.
In the end, we have vague statements that could be about a myriad of different things. No one is up in arms about it but it was worth a post for erik to clarify where this site is coming from and what it tries to acheive.
guys–don’t sweat it., you do a great job and one that does not have to pass editorial, managerial, or commercial scrutiny. here the birds fly free. keep it up
If anything I’ve always found this site to be very “tempered” in assessing the minor league talent. I don’t know what other team’s minor league sites are like, so I don’t have a comparison but it seems like your coverage is pretty moderate and restrained for the most part.
For what it’s worth, I think other teams may have prospects who are overrated in some ways. I think the system needs to be upgraded and that’s slowly being accomplished.
I think he is way off. We have 3 top 100 prospects (and Perez is real close), and yes they ARE prospects since they fit this definition.
pros·pect (prspkt)
n.
1. Something expected; a possibility.
Chris Perez may never be Joe Nathan (a comp of his), but it is a possibility.
I don’t think anyone overvalues Herron, Ottavino, etc—that middle group. They usually are considered guys with #3 starter ceilings. Nobody is saying that Herron is the next Cy Young. He has a lot to prove.
Guys like Walters and Boggs are undervalued. Walters is the best pitcher in our system–the stats tell us this much. His stuff might never touch Ottavino’s or Garcia’s, but stuff alone will rarely win.
There is no reason to not be excited about our AA crop from last year. There were a bunch of very good players on a very good team.
Getting overly excited about the Allen Craigs and Steven Hills is a “problem” I suppose. However, what’s the harm in being optimistic. Usually, I hear that Craig is like Garrett Atkins. How is that overvaluing him? Garrett Atkins for God’s sakes! If I were to overvalue a guy, I would do a little better than Garrett Freaking Atkins.
Writers like Bernie love to dig into the organization and now apparently the fan base with this petty nonsense. Perhaps we wear “red colored sunglasses”on this site. I prefer that to Bernie’s Black Shades. The world is not as bleak as this guy wants us to believe. After all, we do have Colby Rasmus. Only about 5 teams can say they have a prospect as good—-and that is in no way overvaluing the guy!
When I first read that comment I immediately got defensive for you guys as well, because I knew it wasn’t true. Glad to know it wasn’t directed this way. Cards prospects HAVE to be compared with each other for making a top XX list since those are the only ones in the running for said list. But I asked Goold how many of our guys would make a top 30 list when that pool was combined with other systems, say the Tigers (though I said this before the trade)? The “state” of our system can be determined by how many of our guys would crack the top 30 lists of other systems, once we find our selves getting 50+% in that list then we have a strong system but for now we would be lucky to get that many in half of the other systems.
I think this is a great site for getting regular doses of reality. I like coming here because the analysis is as objective as it can possibly be, given that we have limited access to people inside the system.
We don’t get to see these guys play or have insight into their health status or lifestyle issues that might raise red flags.
So we go on stats and whatever eyewitness reports we can get, and this is a great place to see that information compiled and analyzed.
More often than not, we end up tempering our enthusiasm for guys who might be putting up big numbers, rather than getting all worked up about guys with limited upside.
My opnion of the system is very similar to Erik’s. However, in defense of Bernie, he is probably regurgitating what one or two people he repsects has told him. He may have misinterpreted or that person may be wrong as well. Or, unfortunately, that person may be correct. Only time will tell. I think recent history shows that the experts have underated the Cardinals’farm system even in its down years. They may be continueing to do so.
I agree that this site is pretty realistic in it’s presentation of players’ potential. I think we all know that hot prospects even of the Rasmus level can disappoint but we also know that others, let’s say of Martinez or even Derba level can carve out good major league careers. It’s not misleading for a site about a team’s prospects to point that out. As badly as the Cardinals have handled their farm system in the last decade it has been surprising how many seemingly long shot prospects have contributed so it’s only natural that, now that they’re handling it better, to be optimistic.
Maybe he was referring to message board GM’s at his site, many of whom expect all-stars in return for players that can’t crack the Cardinal 40 man. But that happens on every message board, for every team.
Or…the national media has known the Cardinals had a bad farm system for a very long time, so their expectations of the system are going to be tempered.
Also, St. Louis has some major contributors that didn’t make any top 100 lists. They may not have the flashy system top to bottom, but guys like Hoff and Martinez could contribute without being on anyone’s list.
The system does seem a lot better, especially at AA and below. But I don’t know if I feel that way because it actually is better, or because I have been paying more attention.
I think Bernie does a great job of reporting information about the big club but I wonder if he isn’t projecting his own ignorance here. I wonder how in depth Bernie’s knowledge of the Cards farm system is…and also if he could name more than 1 prospect in any other teams system. Maybe his own lack of knowledge is clouding his (and others’) judgment of the Cards system.
One thing I did hear Bernie & Strauss say. was that teams were only asking about Rasmus, Anderson and Perez. I think that is probably true. However, that is exactly what I would do if I were an opposing team. If the Cards want another team to consider an Allen Craig (just an example) they would likely have to sell the other team on him. That’s how trades happen.
Anyway, just my 2cents. Regardless, keep up the good work guys. I think you are objective and fair in most of your evaluations on this site.
I enjoy my trips to this site everyday so I’m glad B’s comments weren’t directed here but it seems hard to think some of it could be as only so many sites focus as this one does.
I think the system is getting better, sure you have the star on top of the tree but the rest is still important to fill it out. I haven’t seen many of our prospects but did watch AA team a couple times on vacation and was very impressed with our top 3 players of Colby, Anderson and Perez who’s stuff was simply awsome and litterally made hitters look bad and real bad on some at bats. Martinez looked good enough to be our shortstop on the big club in the box and field but kinda small sample size.
I think things are only going to improve but I do like to look thru my card red shades.
This is a great site. Your readers love and appreciate it. Even if it were directed at you, the site is incredible. One thing about valuing prospects is that it is so subjective. Obviously Lunhow values the guys he drafted over the guys he could have drafted and didn’t - maybe he’s changed his mind in a couple of places.
I think you guys do a good job of being objective. Everyone has favorites, of course, that’s part of the fun. You have definitely raised a lot of awareness about the minor league system by starting this site, erik. Keep up the good work. I appreciate it.
I know for a fact that a few scouts think you’re right on the ball most of the time erik. They disagree in a few areas, but those are probably 5% of the time. Those comments angered me a lot since I know the time you put in (but then again, most Journalists do) so don’t worry about it.
Oh, and I should have my projections done right after x-mas if ya want um. Only 3 prospects in there though.
yeah, absolutely. send them to futureredbirds@inbox.com
Bernie is simply off the mark. I don’t know if he is trying to play devils advocate or just talking out of his _ _ _. But our system is what it is. Everyone in this system is trying to make it better, from Luhnow to each scout. I am going to remember his comment, and when a Walters or a Maiques becomes a major leaguer I’m going to remind him that he or anyone else can’t foresee how a “prospect” is going to pan out at the next level. This is the 1st site I bring up every day because I am a fan of the Cardinals farm system. I think that you guys are very objective and should be commended on a good solid website. I don’t agree with everything that is said here but that’s what I like most about it. As a father of a prospect I appreciate this site very much.
Continue the good work guys!
Talking about our prospects, where does our farm system rank compared to others? By this, I mean is there a recent BA or BP list of best farm systems? It seems pretty easy for me to find top prospects lists, but not easy for systems. Thanks.