Future Redbirds

A few weeks ago Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was kind enough to answer some of our questions here at Future Redbirds. I gathered together the best questions I could find, threw in a few of my own and here are his insightful responses. Enjoy.  (Oh, and don’t forget to vote for your #20 Cardinal prospect.)

-How did your gig with Baseball America come about?

David Wilhelm, who covers the Cardinals for the Belleville News-Democrat, had been the BA correspondent for several years. In 2005, he approached me about taking over. I jumped at the invitation. As a kid, I remember devouring Baseball America – racing to the baseball card shop on Pearl Street to buy the latest copy. During the second year as BA’s correspondent, the editors assigned me a few features and then asked me to put together the Prospect Handbook. It’s a great perk of covering the Cardinals for practical and personal reasons. One, BA forces me to have a deeper knowledge of the minor league system. And, two, it gives me a chance to write for that kid who is racing to the baseball card shop for a copy.

-What goes into putting together your annual top 30?

Reporting. Researching. Gathering. Collecting. Interviewing. In short: lots. I usually start with last year’s list and jot notes about where the players are, how they’re season went and then if they should go up, go down or stay put. I go through a few rough drafts and then discuss the list with an editor at BA. There is a vast amount of information about players available from BA’s network of reporters and that is invaluable when sorting through some of the newer players, like Pete Kozma or D’Marcus Ingram. I talk to coaches, scouts (inside and outside of the Cardinals organization) and executives. Sometimes those are straight interviews, sometimes off-the-record discussions. Some are debates. Everybody has their own pet trait that they base their personal rankings/opinions on. My job is to cut through all the spin and collect all the information into a representative top 30. Near the end, I get a tremendous amount of help from Jim Callis, an editor at BA, to refine the final product.

-Being that you have access to the Cardinal scouts and brass, I wanted to ask-What player has flown under the radar, so to speak, that you may know the organization is excited about?

Before this past season it was probably Jarrett Hoffpauir. In a lot of ways Mitchell Boggs fits this description, but he’s a top-10 prospect so it’s hard to say he’s flown under the radar. Jason Motte would also fit were not for his often-told story of switching positions. So … I’ll give you a few, from various levels: RHP Luke Gregerson, RHP Mike Parisi (who probably fits this question best), RHP Deryk Hooker, and, from the position players, 1B Brandon Buckman.

-What is your take on the Kozma pick? Some said “too safe, too cheap”, I wanted to get your take on that.

I’ll go with the “safe” part. Cheap is a little rough, though certainly “cheaper” than the guy they could have gone with at that pick – Rick Porcello. With Porcello sitting there, the Kozma pick just didn’t seem to fit with the direction the Cardinals are going. They need pitching. They’ve been willing to spend on the draft and scouting. They preach a need and willingness to fortify their prospect depth. They wanted to make the most of the 18th pick. Heck, they had Porcello ranked as the best prep pitcher on their board. And, yet, they weren’t convinced they could sign him.

All this is well-traveled ground. Probably time to stop rehashing the past – though you cannot say it’s Monday morning quarterbacking – and start digging into the future. Kozma was the best prep middle infielder available in the draft. The Cardinals believed he was not going to last until their next pick and the two players they were going to take went bang-bang right ahead of their pick. Kozma has been described as a prospect will good all-round tools and no great tool. But, where that description fails is Kozma has skills that the Cardinals believe project reliably to the majors. The glove will play. The swing has to improve. It’s like the Cardinals saw the spectrum of possibilities at 18 and decided to go with the a bond instead of a tech stock.

-Speaking of the draft, what is your take on Luhnow’s drafting strategy?

It’s detailed and fascinating. I find intriguing the story behind Luhnow’s first pick ever as the director of the Cardinals’ draft. They wanted Jay Bruce. They knew they wouldn’t get Jay Bruce. So they went looking for a low-risk, high-reward pick that could be, just might be as good as Bruce if everything went right. That pick? Colby Rasmus. Contrast that pick with this year’s draft when the Cardinals decided that they needed to play it a little more conservative on the signability side.

Luhnow said the Cardinals will take some head-scratchers, and that they have. But they’ve also scored with some late-round picks because of his faith in his scouts. Steven Hill. Jaime Garcia. Etc.

-Allen Craig really raked in the FSL. But how is his glove? Can it play at the hot corner?

Boy, that is the question isn’t it? Talk about a prospect storming into the picture and then taking on more importance because of the goings on at the major-league level (i.e., The Rolen Affair). So, here’s what I’ve been told about Craig: He can play the position. He’s not great at third, he’s not a game-changer at third, but he also – according to an opposing manager – doesn’t hurt his team. He makes the plays. He makes the necessary plays. He doesn’t look all that great throwing, but it gets there and that’s what matters. He’ll play there until he shows he cannot.

-Of all the hot starters…Clay Mortensen, Jesse Todd, Steve Hill, D’Marcus Ingram…who do you feel has the brightest future?

Got to go with Mortensen here. He’s rapidly become the most interesting first-day pick of that draft. Mortensen did so many things right in his debut and he seems to be earmarked for a rapid rise if he keeps up that kind of production. He could bound over a lot of other starting pitchers this season if he returns this spring throwing the same way he did in his first pro summer.

-What do we make of Daryl Jones?

We make that this is a big year for the super athlete. He does things others cannot do because of his sheer athleticism. He has improved. He has a lot to learn at the plate and there are some who think that once he gets it he’ll soar. It’s just a matter of getting it. Looks like he’ll get an opportunity to start the season in Palm Beach. That could be a good push. Warm weather. No moving after spring training. A challenge wrapped inside of a reward. Certainly something to watch in spring.

- I am curious to know what the org’s thoughts and plans are for Jose Martinez.

I know a few folks who believe he’ll be the starting second baseman in the majors at some point in the next four seasons. He’s been described to me as Placido Polanco-like in his minor-league performance and his profile. He’s also been called a manager’s favorite kind of player. He doesn’t do a whole lot that stands out and grabs scouts by their radar guns and shakes ‘em, but he doesn’t do a whole lot wrong, either. He’s got good hands, but not the range to stay at shortstop. His bat continues to improve and there appears to be developing power there. Martinez is one of the prospects you tell your friends about now so that when he starts starring in Triple-A, you can just nod knowingly.

-Here’s a conspiracy theory for you-Kyle Russell wasn’t signed because of the whole inner office schism, IE Russell was a “Luhnow guy” Jocketty refused to sign. True or false?

Oh, probably false. But it sure makes for a scandalous urban legend.

-Will we see the “piggyback” rotation in 2008, and what is your take on it?

If the Cardinals have the arms on hand to fill out a piggyback rotation, then, yep, you’ll probably see it again. It worked in some places, faltered in others. There were a few pitchers that really thrived in the system. Brad Furnish did. Tyler Herron did. It didn’t slow P.J. Walters down. It did hurt middle relievers and turn teams like Quad Cities into a staff of eight starters and Kenny Maiques. To which a few Cardinals’ officials said: “And? Those are the nine best pitchers on the team.” Touché.

There’s a logic to the tandem system, but it takes a leap of faith from the pitchers involved. I’d like to know if there’s a way to run the tandem that doesn’t impose an inning limit on the “starter”. If he’s got a gem going and he’s got a low pitch count, let him go into the sixth, into the seventh. Let him experience that stress, that pressure, that exhilaration. I understand the priority is on innings and fundamentals in the lower minors, but even prospect pitchers at these levels deserve a carrot then can actually catch …

-Amaury Marti is something of a folk hero around here at FR. But do the Cards have any real plans for him since the cat has come out of the bag on his age?

And the Legend of Amaury you’ve written [ed. note- it's been a collaboration of sorts, thanks to you readers] is one of the best things in the Cardinals’ Blogosphere. Some of my favorites:

Marti once hit a home run on a hit by pitch.

His favorite ice cream flavor is napalm.

When Amaury Marti does push-ups, he’s not pushing himself up, he’s pushing the Earth down.

It reminds me of a Web site out there that offers up the same kind of insight on The Rock. Had me rolling for days. OK, enough bouquets. You asked a serious question, a question I’ve asked in various ways. Like, why send a player of his age to Mexico for a season when the clock is ticking on what kind of player you have? Like, how do you give Marti playing time in the minors when he might be mid-30s by the time he reaches the majors when you could give playing time to a player who could get to the majors in his mid-20s because of that playing time? The answer I consistently get is that the Cardinals judge Marti independent of his age. If his bat gets him to the majors, that is what matters. They won’t let him get in the way of some of the younger prospects, but they also won’t let his age dictate an impatient approach with him.

-What happened to Trey Hearne this past season?

Looks to me like he gave up a whole lot more hits. A whole lot more. In Low-A, Hearne worked his command and his biting sinker for 102 hits and 34 walks in 128 innings. Opponents hit .216 off him in 2006 and he was one of the few Cardinals minor-league pitchers who allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. In 2007, at High-A, Hearne allowed 181 hits and 42 walks in 137 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .323 against him. And that’s the difference. He caught too much of the plate and got hit too hard. It’s what a few scouts and officials thought might happen in his first go at the next level up: His pitches that Low-A hitters couldn’t square would get ripped by better hitters. I’m eager to see how he does with a second tour of the Florida State League.

-I’m curious about Kyle McClellan. What does he throw, and is there any plans to possibly move him to the rotation?

He throws hard. Consistently hard. McClellan has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and has a sharp sink to it. He also has a slider that riddles righthanded hitters. The plan is to keep him as a reliever for a couple reasons. First, he could move fast as a reliever. Second, and more importantly, the Cardinals believe coming out of surgery McClellan is better served by being groomed as a reliever rather than taxing/testing his elbow by developing as a starter.

-What player currently in the minors do you see having an impact on 2008?

Wouldn’t be surprised if RHP Mark Worrell or RHP Chris Perez made their way into the bullpen at some point in 2008. OF/1B Joe Mather could hit his way into a cameo if the need arises at Busch Stadium, but the more likely position player to earn a promotion with his play in the Triple-A this season: 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir.

Here’s the dark horse, the potential surprise of spring: RHP Mike Parisi.

Need coupled with his ability might open a spot for him early in the 2008 season.

- What is you take on Pete Kozma as a hitter?

I’ve heard and read so many different things. I want to see him for myself this spring before believing one scouting report over the other. There are a few people I’d like to talk to while we watch him hit.

- The Cards seemed to break with recent tradition when they reached for a HS RHP at pick #46 in the draft (Tyler Herron). Now, 2 yrs later, he’s put up darn fine numbers - solid K/IP ratios, great control, and an excellent WHIP. And yet, he’s not garnering much attention. What are the things that caused the Cards to break tradition for him in the first place - did he appear to have a golden arm, or was it as much about signability as anything?

By not garnering enough attention, do you mean not being included in the Garcia-Ottavino-Boggs enclave of pitching prospects? Herron certainly pledging for membership. Herron fits that risk-taking side of Luhnow and the Cardinals’ recent drafts described above. When they get to a pick and a guy with tantalizing talent is there and no other player compels them to urgency, the Cardinals will take the talent. Herron had that kind of talent. He also came from a pitching hotbed there in Wellington, Fla.

Herron has three pitches that he can work with, including a breaking ball that sometimes hangs on him but has the makings of a solid pitch for him. His finish to the 2006 season – 4-1, 2.67 in his final five starts – hinted at his 2007 breakout, but he remains on the fringe of that top-flight group because all of his pitches are as refined as the other prospects and this was just his fist 100-inning season.

– This question comes from Larry Borowsky, of VEB fame. I’ll keep it in small caps, in lboros fashion: out of the top group of SP prospects in the system - hawksworth, parisi, garcia, boggs, walters, ottavino, herron, and mortensen - how many do you think will have a big-league career lasting at least 100 starts (irrespective of which team the starts are made for, or the quality of the starts)?

Ah, figures Larry would ask me to crawl out on the predictive limb. I’m high on Mortensen. I think he and Jaime Garcia have the blend of ability, age and (perhaps) durability to get to that lofty number. One hundred? Seriously, Larry, one hundred? I’ll add two names if you’ll alter the definition to combination of 100 starts and key relief appearances $$ either setup or closer, say in an Adam Wainwright fashion. The two:

Mitchell Boggs and Adam Ottavino.

– I would like to know a little more about D’Marcus Ingram. He hit for a good average, drew walks, and seems to have speed. Is he a legit prospect?

Yep. He’s a prospect on the rise. An athlete who showed some good baseball instincts like the walks and the approach at the plate (more BBs than Ks). He received raves from coaches during instructional league. He’s got striking speed and will be a threat to steal. In batting practice, I’m told, he shows gap power, though it didn’t show up in games (35 of his first 39 pro hits were singles). He’s not the biggest or tallest of chaps, but he’s said to play above his height and is capable of playing center field. Put him up there with Ryde Rodriguez as one of the newcomers I’m eager to see in spring.

Oh, and Ingram is one of the last of his kind: a draft-and-follow.

– How are Mark McCormick and Stuart Pomeranz coming along after spending so much time on the DL?

McCormick is expected to have a normal spring training. Pomeranz threw well in the Arizona Fall League and plans to have a normal offseason in prep for his spring training chance to pitch his way into a rotation. To me, Pomeranz is the more interesting comeback of the two. He was a highly touted pitcher a few years ago, and if he can regain his form he could climb back into the conversation.

-You get to see in person and talk to some of the Cardinal prospects from time to time. Who is that guy you may have talked to and seen in person that just gave you the impression of “wow, that guy is going to be good.”?

You mean besides Rasmus, right? Because definitely Rasmus. Definitely Rasmus. And then … Well, Cameron Maybin. Oh, did you want Cardinals’ prospects? When he was healthy and rolling, Jon Jay had that kind of look about. Kyle McClellan did this season. Chris Perez has people talking, and when he made his 1 o’clock debut in spring training this season a few major-leaguers stopped to watch him pitch. I’m eager to see if anyone stands out like that this spring.

I’ll have a better answer then.

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