Future Redbirds

We’ve got a couple surprises in this list but nothing too earth shattering. Don’t forget the chat at 11 a.m.

1. Colby Rasmus, of
2. Chris Perez, rhp
3. Bryan Anderson, c
4. Jaime Garcia, lhp
5. Adam Ottavino, rhp
6. Pete Kozma, ss
7. Clayton Mortensen, rhp
8. Mitchell Boggs, rhp
9. Tyler Herron, rhp
10. Jon Jay, of

Comments after the jump.

Before discussing the list itself, there’s a best tools rating that is listed at BA as well. I have to give a shout out to the criminally under-rated Jason Motte and his fastball. Chris Perez gets rated as having the best fastball but I’ll take Motte’s upper-90s with good command over Perez’s fastball any day of the week. It’s interesting that as much as everyone (including myself) acknowledges that Perez is probably the heir apparent to Jason Isringhausen, Jason Motte’s numbers project to be light years better than Perez next year.

Anyway, Colby Rasmus is the uneqivocal top prospect in the system and a top 5 prospect in the minors. Chris Perez, Bryan Anderson and Jaime Garcia are largely interchangable in numbers 2-4. Perez has control problems, Anderson’s power hasn’t developed, Garcia had an elbow injury — pick the issue you dislike the least and rank that player 2nd. Ottavino continues to draw good reviews despite a so-so statistical year.

I’m sticking to my guns on Kozma. At the draft time, he was rated as having 4 average or better tools but below average power. I didn’t like this pick at the time, he didn’t do anything significant during the season to change my mind and I’m not willing to rate him over other prospects based on his draft position. He picked up the #8 spot in erik’s list and I fully expect Kozma to be in the bottom half of Kevin Goldstein’s list so it’s really me that’s swimming upstream here. Goold says the club will probably start him at Quad Cities next year.

Clayton Mortensen, on the other hand, took me by surprise and has become quite well regarded within the system. I’m hopeful the improved command from Quad Cities sticks around next year. And here’s a bit of a bombshell. Mortensen may start as high as Double-A next year. That would really surprise me but it would certainly be an interesting development.

No real problems with Boggs and Herron’s rankings. They’re the second tier pitching prospects in the Cardinal system. Jon Jay comes in at the end of the list. He was ranked 5th in 2006 so it would be hard for him to drop off the list completely. There’s a bit of praise for his CF defense, which I had always read was inadequate. The issue with Jay that I have is that everything needs to go right. Goold says, “Scouts from other organizations focus on Jay’s lack of a standout tool more than his lack of a glaring weakness.” and that’s largely true. He doesn’t have the power that a typical corner outfielder does so he needs all of his secondary skills to pan out (playing an average CF defensewould go a long way toward improving his prospect status imo). I like Jay but he reminds me somewhat of Kozma in regards that a lot of different things need to go well since they both lack a truly elite skill in any one area.

All in all, it’s a very solid list presented by Goold. The disagreements that I have are more quibbles than true issues and the player specific reviews are all well written and eloquent. Of course, we expected nothing less from our esteemed beat writer.