Haerther, OTOH, seems to be caught in a glut of lefty-hitting corner-outfield types. He has Jay coming up behind him with the same type of offensive profile and better defensive potential, and Dunc and Ankiel in front of him.

That said, I’ll be happy about any of these guys making it to the varsity, in any capacity. They’ve all worked hard and deserve whatever shot they get.

You’ve found an interesting pattern: The AA numbers seem to over-project our guys, while the translations from AAA numbers seem too pessimistic.

Somebody correct me if I’m wrong, but the hitting atmosphere in Springfield seems a little too good to be true, even by Texas League standards. Meanwhile, we’ve known for a while that Memphis is kind of an island in the PCL, a place where pitchers look better and hitters look worse than they would in most other PCL venues.

The Cards have a really odd pattern in their affiliates. JC seems to favor hitters and punish pitchers, while Batavia, QC and PB are the opposite — tough for hitters, good for pitchers.

A prospect who makes it to AA then has a great place to hit/tough place to pitch, followed by the opposite in AAA. And the new Busch seems to play somewhere in between. We’ve seen Duncan, Ryan, and Schumaker hit better in St. Louis than they did in Memphis.

Maybe the best way to look at our prospects is to take projections based on their AA and AAA translations and split them down the middle.

It’ll be interesting to look back at these numbers when we have a group of guys who’ve played in Springfield, Memphis, and the new Busch, and see if that kind of pattern emerges.