1. Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Bryan Anderson
Who’s number #4? Let’s hear it!
Filed under: Top 25
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Amaury Marti Watch
Amaury Marti is currently hitting .424/.509/.633 in 39 games for the Mexican Red Devils of the Mexican League, also known as Liga de Amaury Cazana. Bud Selig ordered the Cardinals to banish him to there, in fear of the major leagues losing competitive balance.
Amaury also refuses to accept the watch curse. He has the power to curse, and the power to bless.
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34 Responses to “Reader Top 25, #4”
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erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Perez
perez
Mortensen
Perez
Perez
I’ll keep stumping for Boggs.
herron
mortenson
Perez
Ottavino
Tough things to assess here, with 4 pitchers that I feel are clumped together: Mortensen, Perez, Herron, Ottavino.
I’m going to go with a little unusual pick here of Mortensen, because:
1) He was taken as a starter with 3 good pitches, and with projectability left - i.e., in addition to still developing his offspeed stuff, he may yet add velocity. So there’s reason to expect he may be a good ML starter.
2) With clean mechanics, good health, strong K rates, good control, and more than 2 pitches, he’s free of the 4 most common warts of pitchers.
3) His numbers in this first season post-draft were on par or better than the other guys I mention (I looked at career numbers first, then posted only 2007 for simplicity’s sake - no huge change, and at least it’s the most recent report on these guys):
- His dominance index (Ks divided by H+BB) was .89. This was better, albeit slightly, than the others (Perez=.87, Herron= .82, Otto = .66)
- His K/9 was 10.17, far better than the other 2 SP. Only Perez was higher, and as an RP I would expect this (Perez=12.73, Herron=8.5, Otto=8.3)
- His control is excellent (3.6 K/BB, and 1.8 BB/9IP). Herron’s K/BB is even better (5.0), though the BB/9 is similar (1.7).
So overall, I believe only Herron has equivalent numbers, and he falls substantially shorter in K/9 (about 1.6 less), and I don’t like his scouting report quite as much.
4) The ding on Mortensen is that he was somewhat old (22) for his level (A) last year. However, he gets a bit of a mulligan for me because he basically saddled up as asked - not his fault he wasn’t asked to go to AA, and the A number certainly suggest he warranted the test. In addition, the age can actually be a good thing if we think of him being past the fabled “injury nexus”, which suggests that all else being equal, his arm is a little more mature (and more road-tested) than Otto or Herron.
Next year will clearly allow some useful separation of Otto, Herron, and Mort as we see them all get tested at higher levels. Until then, we have to work with we have, and Mortensen seems to rise to the top when I put all the factors in the shaker and toss it around. I could also listen to arguments for Herron here, due to great stats at a younger ARL.
*5 warts*
Yes, I can count
For me it’s either Perez or Ottavio.
herron, perez’s strikout rate has really dropped in the past few months.
herron
I’m persuaded by Sidd’s argument re: Mortensen.
Here’s the way I look at it:
If Mort had been ranked by BA as one of the top 20 prospects, and we’d taken him instead of Kozma with the 18th pick, and he’d performed exactly as he did, he’d be our #2 prospect, hands-down.
I think the only reason we’re skeptical about his potential is because the Cards’ scouts thought more highly of him than did the scouts who talked to BA.
Which gets back to something I noted on another thread: The Cards’ scouts don’t seem to talk to anybody before the draft, so the only times we know who they’re watching are when coaches and other scouts tell BA who else was watching a particular guy.
“If Mort had been ranked by BA as one of the top 20 prospects, and we’d taken him instead of Kozma with the 18th pick, and he’d performed exactly as he did, he’d be our #2 prospect, hands-down.”
This is an interesting point. I didn’t really factor pre-draft rankings from BA, BP, Sickels, etc. into my thoughts o those 4 guys, so it didn’t really affect my look thru the numbers and pitching report….but if he had the same season after a top-20 ranking, I’d say he’d lived up to expectations.
Note that all 4 of these guys have good draft pedigrees - Rounds 1 and 2 kind of blur as time marches on and players develop differently, etc.
Herron for me
which one is it jacob, perez or ottavino? can’t be both.
Perez because he’s already to AAA. None of the others have passed the AA acid test yet.
Boggs
Ottavino
I’m not sure you should hold perez’s recent numbers against him. He’s been pitching for close to 10 months straight, through 2 levels, was going to the afl but not and now on team usa. He could probably use a break. So after making excuses for him, I’ll vote for him: Perez.
Eh, he won’t win, but I go with Boggs.
Perez
Ottavino
I’m going to vote Boggs also. Perez and probably Ottavino and Herron have more upside, but I think Boggs has a very good chance of being a solid 3-4 starter who eats ~200 innings a year with a middling ERA and occasional flashes of brilliance for a number of years. I think that might wind up being more valuable for the Cardinals in the long run then a lights out closer.
Ottavino
the big o
I am going to have to go with Perez. I am torn here because I really wanted to say Ottavino, Mortenson, or Herron. I am going with Perez for a couple reasons. He has a filthy combo of fastball and slider that produced great results at AA and solid results at AAA. He has passed the test of being able to perform at a higher level than any of our starter prospects. I am also going with him because of the importance of his status in the organization. Izzy’s option was picked up, but wasn’t extended which is a pretty big statement. That to me means that the Cards brass is counting on Perez being the full time closer in 09. If the Cards weren’t sure he’d be ready then they would have extended Izzy much like they did with Edmonds’ contract. He will fill a role that just had Todd Jones get $7 million to resign. Anytime you can fill a prominent role such as closer and have a guy that could potentially be very very good making the major league min. that is major. If Perez doesn’t work out we could end up spending a crap load of money on a retread like Jones or you will see a closer by committee which can get pretty ugly.
Chris, the problem is see with Perez is that a lot of failed starters can be turned into closers, and a lot of guys groomed as closers in the minors just turn out to be setup guys. So right there, it a) means that Perez’s “destined” spot could be filled by guys not even on the radar as relievers, and b) the track record for relievers with great stuff but no control is anything but solid. I like Perez, don’t get me wrong, but his control at AA was NOT good, and that was the stop at which his showing was strongest.
Herron and Mortenson both, by contrast, show pretty much no blemishes in their foundational peripherals (is that an oxymoron?), and thus seem like better prospects than all but the most slam-dunks of the closers-in-waiting.
Gall…i mean Herron
Perez
Sid…My point for taking Perez is based on his value to the organization, pure “stuff”, and his performance at a higher level than our starter prospects. I think the thing to remember about Perez in comparison to our starter prospects is that he strikes out a ton of batters and no one can get a hit off the guy. Perez has the type of stuff and numbers that parlay into a dominant type closer. Perez isn’t a finished product by any means, but if I had to bet on him lowering his walk rates and developing into an above average closer I’d take that bet.