A peak at peak translations: The hitters, part 1
AZ had a great post the other day at VEB about why the Cardinals can’t afford to trade Colby Rasmus. One of the arguments he made was that Colby’s MLE (minor league equivalent) was a solid .240/.331/.474 line, and his peak translation line is .273/.380/.538, or a .308 EqA (.260 is considered average, while Curtis Granderson led all CFers with an EqA of .300.) So what is peak translation? Peak translations come via Baseball Prospectus brainiac Clay Davenport. Here is his own definition:
Peak Translation: Applies a typical aging pattern to the regular translation, to try and assess how good the player will be at his peak. Peak generally means somewhere around age 27; however, since the components of offense don’t age at the same rates (speed decays earlier than power, for instance), and since players don’t have the same mix of those components, the actual peak age has some variability, as early as 25 for pure speedsters and as late as 30 for sluggers…the peak translation is an important tool for me to assess prospect status.
Davenport’s system believes Colby is capable of being an above average major leaguer right now. When you apply the normal aging curves of what a player with Colby’s skill set is expected to perform at his peak, we see that Colby is expected to be an All Star, possibly even the best at his position for a period. That got me wondering-what are some of the other peak translations for the other hitters in the system? There are a few worth noting, enough to make this at least a 2 part series. Here we go-
Allen Craig
Actual line: .312/.370/.530. MLE EqA: .267
Peak translation: .299/.355/.520. EqA: .293
The average EqA for a 3rd sacker last season was .269. To put Craig’s numbers in perspective, Aramis Ramirez had a .294 EqA last season and Mike Lowell was at .288. That’s All Star company. Just to throw this out there, Rolen and his creaky shoulder eked out a .256 EqA. To add a healthy dose of skepticism, despite hitting like the dickens in the Florida State League, most scouts seemed indifferent to Craig for one reason or another. Then there’s also that dicey issue of whether or not he can remain at the hot corner. All in all though, this is a very encouraging translation. Rolen may not be expendable for 2008, but he very well could be by 2009.
Bryan Anderson
Actual line: .298/.348/.388. MLE EqA: .230
Peak translation: .301/.356/.400. EqA: .266
Yeah, that is just a little above average on the surface, and it may make some of you Anderson doubters feel justified. But consider league average EqA for catchers last season was .244. Paul LoDuca was the epitome of average, while Jason Varitek and Brian McCann were right around Anderson’s level. Yadier Molina had a .251 EqA, his career high. Lifetime, he has a .228 EqA, but Yadier’s peak translation is .269. Combine that with his Gold Glove worthy fielding (I’m looking at you, NL coaches and managers!), and you can argue that Anderson is expendable. I’ve long thought Yadi was capable of being a better hitter. I’m still a little skeptical he’ll improve the way we’d like, while I feel more confident with Anderson as a hitter. Now if he could start to hit for some power…
There will be a handful of others in part 2 and maybe part 3 of this series, and we’ll also look at the pitchers at some point as well. Stay tuned.
Filed under: Allen Craig, Bryan Anderson, Colby Rasmus, peak translations
erik
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fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Very interesting on Craig. I have never been real high on him before, but my eyebrows are raised.
I didn’t notice Craig’s MLE — that’s pretty impressive. I’ve read a few reports that his swing was a touch long and some scouts thought that might be a problem against better pitchers but he’s certainly got the stats.
These obviously aren’t iron-clad but the regular translations are particularly dubious across multiple levels, meaning translations below AAA should be taken with an additional grain of salt.
Like to see the numbers on Craig. If he can stay at 3b and Rolen rebounds to 2006 levels of production (not that out of the question)in 2008 and 2009, the Cards could be in an enviable position of trading away Rolen from strength.
As for Anderson, these numbers further illustrate why I think the Cards should consider aggressively offering him up on the trade market. Of the Cards top 5, Anderson is the most expendable.
This is awesome work, erik. Craig would have to be major-league average defensively to justify an offensive output like that. Or, he would at least become tradable to a team looking for a LF, 1B, or DH. I gotta say also that Anderson having McCann’s and Varitek’s equivalencies is pretty good also considering the fact that Anderson hasn’t hit for much power. Doubles power, though, would be sufficient. I am surprised that Yadi’s are so high but he’s gonna have to hit double-digit homers in order to meet it.
I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Craig play quite a bit last summer. I would say that reports on his swing being long are inaccurate. My observations are short and quick. Very solid approach, he was definately ready for AA. Defensively, I thought he was solid, not outstanding but got the job done. I would say he can definately stay at 3rd.
I know Team USA’s competition isn’t MLB equivalent, but Colby has 10 doubles and an inside-the-park HR in 11 games. Color me impressed.
I hope rolen is still around when craig is ready so craig can learn from him.
i highly doubt rolen will be open to share w/ anyone regarding taking his job.
^Sadly, I think you are dead right Erik. I am more optimistic that Jim Edmonds will be open to working with Colby in the second half of this season, but it is clear that anyone or anything taking playing time away from Scott Rolen is his enemny, whether it be TLR, a youngster, age, or injury.
Thanks for the 1st hand info Bob. I love hearing that kind of stuff.