Brewerfan.net has their Top 30 prospects that are likely headed into the draft. It’s a pretty good place to go and kill 15 minutes or so. As a former Missourian, I am pretty proud of seeing Aaron Crow and Tim Melville close to the top of the list. Sort of stinks we’ll be landing neither, but I would doubt the Cardinals would take Melville anyway, him being a high school pitcher and all.
Scanning over the names, one player really struck me as the Cardinals type of draft pick, and that is Christian Friedrich. Here is his scouting report at Brewerfan:
Friedrich has been carving up batters since he stepped on Eastern Kentucky’s campus, posting a 10-2 record and a 1.98 ERA during his freshman year. Overall, including his summer performances, he has gone 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA, striking out 307 batters and allowing only 153 hits in over 232 innings of work. He could stand to lower his walk totals (89), but given his dominance that seems like a minor detail. While his curveball is his best pitch, a true downer that disappears from the batter’s eye, he success is predicated from how well he spots his 88-92 fastball that has touched 94 in the past. He also throws a changeup, and has a very smooth delivery and arm action that makes it look as though he’s playing catch. He’s a candidate to soar through the minor leagues upon beginning his professional career.
All kinds of things I can see the Cardinals liking here-Polished college player? Check. Smooth delivery? Check. Dominant secondary offering? Double check. Fast riser? Check. In a deep class in the Cape Cod League, Friedrich was named the # 4 prospect in the league. According to a rival manager of his from the Cape Cod League, “He’s the closest to the big leagues of anyone in this league. That 12-6 curveball is just deadly. It’s like Rich Hill’s–you just can’t hit it. And his 89-92 is fine, especially with that curveball.” If there is anything the Cardinals need in the immediate future, it is a viable starting pitcher that can make an immediate impact. When you look in the system at who is closest to the Bigs, you have Mitch Boggs and then question marks with Garcia’s elbow, Ottavino’s command and declining K% as the season went on, and Clay Mortensen; who we may be getting overly excited over his early returns. Then of course you have Herron, who will not be rushed.
When you scan over the list, the list is deep with first baseman and high school pitchers, and the Cards are not likely to take either. There are some interesting high school position players that could intrigue them, such as power hitting 3B Ethan Martin, or 5 tool CF Isaac Crawford.
What do you think?
Filed under: 2008 MLB draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I don’t mind the Cardinals taking those kind of pitchers when they are candidates to rise up through the system. Two questions:
*His curve is a plus pitch, but is his change and fastball also plus pitches?
*What is his ceiling?
his curveball is truly awesome, but i haven’t read any other reports that have his fastball at 89-92. the reports i have seen say he is usually 86-89, and he can occasionally hit 90 or 91. also his control needs a lot of work and he has walked a lot of guys both in college and on the cape, so i don’t know how fast he will move. however, his curveball might be the single best secondary offering in the draft and he does have a nice delivery and a solid frame. capeprospects.com has a video of him if you want to check it out.
I know it’s fun to think about the next draft, and it’s a nice distraction from that annoying work we have to do so we can feed our kids, but has anybody ever predicted accurately whom the Cardinals would take in any draft?
Maybe I’m just not reading the right forecasts, but in my memory two factors always come into play to frustrate people like us:
* In the runup to the draft, the Cards maintain strict radio silence about their strategy; I get the impression they avoid talking to anybody, on or off the record, in fear of tipping their hand.
* Even on the day of the draft, at least in the past few years, the Cards never pick the guy who’s considered the best player still available when it’s their turn. Just about everybody they pick in the first round ends up described as a “reach,” if not an “overdraft.”
I wouldn’t mind if the Cards had a record of success with these head-scratch picks. The Braves get away with taking Georgia kids who’re lower on other teams’ lists because so many of them pan out.
The funny thing is, the Cards used to be so consistent with their first-round picks that they were boring. It was usually a pitcher, usually from college, usually considered the best guy available when the Cards picked him, and usually on the fast track to the big leagues.
I’m working off deep memory, but I’m pretty sure Benes, Osborne, Morris, Looper, and even Allen Watson were all considered the best available picks. Among hitters, Drew was clearly the best available in ‘98, and I think Dmitri Young was similarly regarded in ‘91.
Even the guys who seemed like overdrafts at the time — I’m thinking of marginal middle infielders like Luis Alicea and Aaron Holbert — made it to The Show. (Holbert was actually our second pick the year we drafted Donovan Osborne, but was still #18 overall.)
The Cards once had an amazing record of consecutive first-round picks who played in the majors. I think it ran into double digits.
The few people who wrote about prospects back then used to predict guys would become big leaguers just by virtue of the fact they were picked by the Cardinals, even if they were overdrafts like Justin Pope in 2001.
Somehow, though, we fell into a rut where we not only overdraft, but we overdraft guys who fall short of the majors. I don’t know if Paul Coleman in 1989 was the guy who broke the string, but I’m pretty sure he’s the first one who failed to make it past A ball.
Man, that was a long post!
Because of the need for more impact position players, I wouldn’t mind at all with the Cards grabbing a 1 or 2 high school players so long as the Cards have stocked up on picks in the supplemental round. 4 picks in the top 80 is a perfect reason to go after such players.
Who Do you think we might get if we get our picks from Eckstein and Percival
I still think Zack Putnam is the Cards pick at #13 he is a 3 year college starter who relies on a heavy sinker that at times is good enough to get people out on it alone. Has the Jake Peavy type of build, athleticism and type of 3/4 motion…but I also thought Jake Arrieta was going to be their choice this time last year…so that just shows how little I know.
I always prefer HS players and Tim Beckam is the best of the best when it comes to the prepsters..he is a Hanley Ramirez like talent with an already polished game for all those raw skills.
I like Friedrich but I worry about him b/c he is basically a 1 plus pitch pitcher who relies on it an awful lot already while facing inferior competition at EKU. He also doenst have much projection left in his body and his fastball has been closer to 85mp then 90mph at the Cape.
To me if the Cards stick with their conservative, cookie cutter 3 year college SP pick, I hope its from this list of 3 Aaron Crow, Lance Lynn and Brian Matusz…those 3 seem to have the stuff and projetion to be top of the rotation guy…especially Matusz.
What the Cards do and what I want them to do is obviously 2 diff things.
My top 5 for 2008 (w/Pedro Alvarez gone)
1. Tim Beckam SS (5 tool SS)
2. Tim Mehlville RHP (Rick Porcello Lite)
3. Brian Matusz LHP (Buehrle esqu with a better FB)
4. Harold Martinez SS/3B (Miami product who is called A-Rod JR.)
5. Yonder Alonso 1B (If I knew he could play LF, he would be ranked higher)
I think the Cards need a high ceiling outfielder as much as a pitcher. The pitchers we have in our system have higher ceilings than our outfielders (other thn COlby). Don’t get me wrong, I think we have lots of outfield candidates but none with a high ceiling that have a reasonable chance of amking it to the show. After Colby moves up, the OF system will look pretty bare from a quality standpoint.
Phil…No idea, but i’m sure we’ll talk about it down the road as the picture becomes clearer.
I really wish Friedrich played against better teams in college. That being said the draft is so far away and players are going to move all over from here until the draft, but as of now I’m dreaming of a local high school pitcher.
I don’t really know what Mitch Harris of Navy throws but he has impressive stats, but like Christian doesn’t really play against top talent. Two guys who I like that I have never really heard talked about are Michael Bowman (VMI) and Anthony Shawler (Old Dominion) but I have no idea what they throw either and they don’t play against the greatest talent either. Which brings me to Preston Guilmet who I like because he actually plays against good teams. But more than likely all the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph can be had after the first round.
We talked about Aaron Crow’s lack of swing and miss stuff in college and I think that is a warning sign, especially from a RH pitcher.
A couple of names from the HS ranks who havent been talked about that impressed me in watching the Aflac game were
Catcher Kyle Skipworth….I know we dont need a catcher, but he is a tall lanky, advanced approach LH hitting catcher with power. He does look a bunch like Mauer and seems to be good enough with the tools to stay behind the plate.
LH Pitcher Brett Duval…..built in the Ron Villone build…has a nice fluid motion that seems easily repeatable. Has an above avg fastball for a 17 yr old LH, but what impressed me the most was his ability and aptitude to vary the speed on his breaking ball. Usually dont see that kinda of experience that early. A 3 pitch LH who can sit 90mph….would be a great pick if we are lucky enough to get a Sandwich (#31 to #45) for Eckstein.
Never too early to talk draft with me….I am a junkie!
Over the past several years the Cards have done as good a job as any team in the Majors of identifying and developing non-college position prospects. Namely, Chris Duncan, Yadi Molina, Daric Barton, Bryan Anderson, Colby Rasmus, and a certain Albert Pujols (I’d bet a month’s salary Rasmus & Barton will both make multiple All-Star teams if they remain healthy).
On the other hand, they’ve done a horrendous job scouting college position players–the nadir being the drafting of Mike Ferris 5 spots ahead of where the Red Sox picked Dustin Pedroia. Ack.
Pitchers are just too risky–high school or college–to justify the use of a first round pick. Let Dave Duncan continue to fix “broken” pitchers at the MLB level (e.g. Darryl Kile, Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan, Chris Carpenter, and lately Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, and Troy Percival), and use later round picks on longshots like pitchers…and *all* pitchers are longshots.
I think the choice is pretty self-evident: draft the high school hitter you think has the best chance to be a star-quality bat, and figure out his defensive position as he climbs through the minors. (I disliked the Kozma pick because (1)he was kinda old for a HS kid, and (2)no one, including the Cards, seems impressed by his potential with the lumber. In short, it appears that all the “insiders” feel Pete Kozma’s upside is slightly-above-average-MLB-regular. Let’s hope they’re way wrong.)