Future Redbirds

#25 Luis de la Cruz. This choice leans heavy on a glowing scouting report from Chris Kline at BA, who rated him the best catcher in the GCL. He’s reportedly got all the intangibles you look for in a catcher, and he’s a plus blocking balls and nullifying the running game. He hit .281/.337/.385 in 96 at bats, and was compared to a young Pudge Rodriguez.

#24 D’Marcus Ingram. Maybe I’m overly enamored by early returns, but I really like Ingram. Early reports say he’s a good defender in center, and he has the batting eye, patience and speed you like to see coming from the lead off position. He furthered his prospect status in my eye, and in the eye of the club by hitting .343 in the instructional league, with a .686 slugging %.

#23 Cody Haerther. Haerther was lost for most of the season with a sore right wrist and was recovering from surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in the same hand. He came back with vengeance in August, hitting .270/.387/.517 with 4 homers in 107 plate appearances. In nearly in 1500 at bats, Haerther has hit for average, got on base and displayed moderate power. He’s suffered a number of injuries, mostly due to broken bones (he also had a hairline fracture to his tibia in 2003). I’m surprised it was Marti, not Haerther sent to the AFL. Haerther will be 25 next year. He needs to stay healthy. He looks like a platoon OF, particularly because he’s struggled to hit lefties. For whatever it is worth, his #4 PECOTA comp is Andre Ethier.

#22 Kyle McClellan. Local product came back from Tommy John with a vengeance. His velocity improved after coming back, throwing a 90-93 sinking fastball among a full arsenal, missing plenty of bats. Gets ground balls by the truck load and is a strike thrower, walking just 10 batters over 60 innings of work. There’s a shot he could move into the Memphis rotation next year, which is a big reason why I have him this high. He’s getting hit around a bit in the AFL.

# 21 Jonathan Edwards. What sticks out like a sore thumb is the strikeouts, 67 of them in 188 at bats repeating rookie ball in Johnson City. He still showed good power potential, posting nearly a .200 ISO again. He also takes his fair share of walks. In 35 plate appearances for Batavia, he hit .394/.429/.606. At 19 years old, he stands at 6-5, 230 and has already shown some power. Since power and batting eye are usually something a player grows into with age, his upside looks like a Three True Outcome type of slugger. He also is known to have a pretty solid arm in RF.

20. Tyler Norrick. In my opinion Norrick is overlooked for a number of reasons. He’s left-handed. He throws hard (92-94), and he has a sharp slider. Yes, he is an older prospect relative to his league, but I don’t look at that as a big negative for a pitcher. His FIP of 4.02 was a .08 higher then his rotation mate, Adam Ottavino. I’d like to see him cut down the walks.

19. Brad Furnish. I’m going lefties back to back. Like Norrick, Furnish throws hard and he’s got a very nice curveball. I’ve seen him with my own two eyes and came away impressed. I’m willing to give him a mulligan re: his poor performance at Palm Beach due to the fact that it turned out he had to have some bone spurs removed from his elbow. It’ll be interesting to see what level he starts out next season.

18. Jose Martinez. From the reports I’ve read of him, you get the impression he will be nothing more then a utility infielder. I tend to think he has Placido Polanco like upside, with power, or at least I can dream. What he did in AA as a 21 year old deserves a little more attention then what he’s got. He could take a walk and I’ve heard he ain’t the fastest man alive, but I still really like him.

17. P.J. Walters. He’s been the subject of great debate here at FR because of the whole low-velo thing. There are a few pitchers that survive on that type of slow of a fastball, one being Greg Maddux who can do it because he’s Greg Maddux, the others are the Josh Foggs, Brian Lawrences and Yusmeiro Petits of the world. (I could throw Livan Hernandez and Paul Byrd in there as well, two of the better known pitchers of Walter’s ilk.) He has great control (4.45 K/BB), a trick pitch in the screwball-change, and he knows how to mix it up. Either he’ll top out in AAA, or he’ll end up in the back of the rotation.

16. Joe Mather. The case for: .304 ISO over half a season in AA, while walking more then striking out. The case against: It took him forever to get there, scouts say he has too level of a swing, and he came back to earth in AAA. Color me skeptical of Mather, but it’s hard to ignore what he did in Springfield.

15. Jess Todd. The first 2007 draftee for me to rank is Todd. I love the K/BB, K% and groundball ratios in his early returns, and he’s got nothing but praise from the scouting community. Carlos Gomez went so far as to say that he likes him much better then his former Razorback teammate and St. Louis native Nick Schmidt, who was picked in the first round. The general consensus is that his ceiling is a fastball/slider set up man, but I am hoping he sticks in the rotation. We’ll see.

14. Jason Motte. You have to like his story. He went from a no-hit, all glove catcher to one of the most dominant relievers system. His K% rate was nearly as high as Chris Perez’s, and he wasn’t as wild. He’s nearly all fastball right now, pumping it in at the mid to upper nineties, but reports are his slider is developing. It’s hard not to root for him.

13. Jarrett Hoffpauir. Watching Dustin Pedroia make all kinds of plays for the Red Sox this past postseason has got me a little excited about the outlook of seeing Hoffpauir in a big league jersey. No, I’m not crazy enough to say he’s equally as good as Pedroia, but they have striking similarities. Hoff gets the most out of his ability despite his size, he rarely strikes out, he takes his fair share of walks, he laces line drives and even shows a little bit of pop from the 2B position, a la Pedroia. Goldstein ranked him the #9 2B prospect in all of baseball, while BA thinks he’ll wind up as a utility IF. I just pray he permanently displaces Aaron Miles.

12. Mark Hamilton. Bryan Smith of BP thinks he’s the second coming of Ryan Klesko, which is a pretty nice accolade. Unlike Klesko, it doesn’t look like he’s going to be tried out in LF anytime soon, but I’d like to see that. Hamilton was drafted because of his power potential, and he began to show it in Palm Beach to the tune of a .230 ISO in 244 plate appearances. He struggled mightily in AA, but started to show signs of life the last few weeks of the season. He’s struggling down in the AFL right now, but I have faith he will come around. The obvious problem is he has nowhere to go with Pujols in his way, making him a likely throw-in in a deal. Goldstein ranked him the 9th best 1B prospect in the game.

11. Allen Craig. Arguably the best-hitting prospect the Cardinals have outside of Rasmus, but I’ve read numerous accounts that scouts are not that sold on him. For me, it’s just too hard to squabble with the stats. He went yard once in every 18 at bats, which is something for a FSL hitter. He also hits line drives at a very good clip and doesn’t strike out as much as most power hitters. He profiles to hit power and average in the Bigs, and I’ve heard one of you readers (can’t remember who) aptly compare him to Garret Atkins. Like Atkins, Craig is allegedly a butcher at 3B, but I can’t confirm that yet. The PB defense was well above average with him playing mostly at third, so maybe the reports on his D are overblown. His value hinges largely on if he can stick at third base.

10. Mitch Boggs. No one seems to be all that high on Boggs,  other then the Cardinal brass, who have continually sung his praises, one scout going so far as to say he’s the best starting pitcher in the system. I guess he’s overlooked because he doesn’t really blow you away, but Boggs makes all his starts, eats innings, and keeps his team in the game. ZiPS thinks he has the goods to be the team’s fifth starter right now.

9. Kenny Maiques. Now we’re moving into the good stuff. I’ve seen Maiques several times and I think His stuff is as good as anyone in the system, with a 94 MPH fastball and a very, very good slider. There’s talk of him moving him into starting, and I think his stuff can translate there as well. He is a bit small, and he told me he looks up to Roy Oswalt, another short man with great stuff. I’m not sure if he will be that good, we can daydream. But really, his stuff is darn good. Did I mention I like his stuff?

8. Pete Kozma. I am not as down on Kozma as AZ, but I do worry about the same things. I’m putting him up this high because of his draft status and his early returns weren’t too shabby, either. It’s pretty divided when it comes to opinions regarding Kozma. BA says he was the best overall SS of the draft, while others like Gomez and Law think he’s going to be middling. The Cardinals liked his swing enough to take him as early as they did, so I’ll trust their judgment for now.

7. Clayton Mortensen. I really like Mortensen and I hope I’m not overly enamored with his early returns. It’s the K + groundball rates that have me all worked up, and his control was very nice as well. Couple that in with some glowing reviews from BA, and a great performance in the instructional league and I see a lot to like. I think he’ll at least finish his next season in AA, and could work his way into the big league rotation mid 2009. BA says they saw him near the front of the rotation, which is more then what they could say for Ottavino and Herron. I’m going out on a limb here, and will boldly predict by the end of the year he will be in the top 3 of all the Cardinal prospects, and in the Top 100 prospects in the minors. For now, I’ll exercise some constraint and put him here at # 7.

6. Tyler Herron. Love the command, control, dominance and groundball rates, and the fact that he is a young kid not far removed from high school. He’s in his third year of fulltime pitching, and the third time around he’s really come into his own. His peripheral stats aren’t far removed from Jaime Garcia’s last year, though he doesn’t have Garcia’s curveball or sinker. But both of those pitches of his are quite good in their own right. I wish the Cardinals would take more chances on players like him in the draft.

 5. Adam Ottavino. I’m actually sort of disappointed in Ottavino, mostly due to hindsight and who the Cardinals could’ve had. (JOBA!). I’m most worried about the decline in his K% as the season went on, and his command comes and goes. Compare his peripheral stats with the Mitch Boggs of 2006, and Boggs has better fielding independent numbers. On the positive, he does have very good stuff, and a ceiling higher then about any pitcher in the system other then Garcia.

4. Chris Perez. I have my worries about this dude as well. The walks have got to be curbed or he will not survive. His pure stuff is probably the best in the system but if he can’t control it then he will walk down the path of David Aardsma path of college closers, versus the Chad Cordero, Huston Street path.

3. Bryan Anderson. KG ranked him the 2nd best catcher in the game midseason, and PECOTA pegged Anderson as the third best catching prospect going into 2007. Yes, he did sputter down the stretch, but he’s a young catcher, they wear out from time to time. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who happens to be Anderson’s #4 PECOTA comp had a whopping .724 OPS in 2006, and reestablished himself as one of the game’s best prospects the following year. Hopefully he’ll stop sliding, but in any case, what he did as a 20 year old in AA isn’t anything to sneeze at.

2. Jaime Garcia. It sometimes feels like the system’s overall value can hinges much on his left elbow. The dominance + groundball rates here are elite, but I’m not fond of the walks. But all things considered, he was young for his league and still did pretty well. I think he will be the future number two or three starter, we just need to cross our fingers and hope he really is as fine as we’re told.

1. Colby Rasmus, of course. I am really looking forward to the Rasmus era. My only apprehension regarding him is he’s so exceptionally streaky. He’s either red-hot or ice cold and almost never runs in between.