Future Redbirds

#25 - Blake King

It’s all about the upside with Blake King. He took a step backwards this past year getting demoted from Quad Cities to Batavia due to his wretched command. He features a power fastball and slider combination as the bread’n’butter of his repertoire. The piggyback setup wasn’t kind to King in QC and I don’t think he’s going to stick as a starting pitcher but his pure stuff is among the top 5 in the system. Look for him to move to the pen permanently if he continues to struggle out of the rotation.

#24 - Daryl Jones

Another upside pick who barely edged out Jon Edwards and Edgar Lara in terms of potential. I’ve seen Jones and while he still hasn’t shown anything in his performance to date, he oozes athleticism in person. He’s got a cannon for an arm with good speed and good instincts in the outfield. He’ll still only be 20 entering next year and if he translates tools into performance, he’ll quickly rise up prospect lists.

#23 - Mark McCormick

Injuries have plagued McCormick over the last two years limiting him to just a few innings this year and less than 60 in 2006. With a fastball that can touch 98, he’s your archetypal power pitcher. There are questions about his command (although most Cardinal pitchers have those questions attached to them) and his ability to stay healthy is obviously a concern. What McCormick needs more than anything else is just a injury free season at Palm Beach — experience at this point is critical. As more recent draftees have stolen McCormick’s spotlight, it’s easy to forget the potential that he represents even if he is an incredible long shot to reach it.

#22 - Cody Haerther

I’ve taken some hits before about Haerther because I’m not really a fan. He put together a good year posting a .289/.377/.486 line in Springfield with decent power and a surprising walk rate. If he can maintain those peripherals moving up to Memphis next year, he’ll probably see time with the big league team. His only ticket to the majors is his bat, however, as he features below average defense in left field. If everything comes out right, he could be a bench player a la David Dellucci for a few years. Limited upside but performance at the plate garnered him the 22nd spot in my Top 25.

#21 - Tyler Greene

I’ve had a bit of a falling out with Tyler Greene. He’s another upside pick for me and I may be ranking him too low — he caused me no shortage of problems when compiling this list. In the end, his ranking is a combination of 3 things: a) the need to shift from SS to 3B defensively, b) blowing out his knee this season and c) his inability to hit for average. He still offers raw power and athleticism but the former first round pick has really only had one truly good half-season at Quad Cities in 2006. He strikes out often enough that it gives me cause for concern and I’m usually willing to overlook strikeouts in prospects. Greene may or may not play in Memphis next year depending on what the team decides to do with Jose Martinez. With Pete Kozma coming up behind him, Greene needs to step up the performance quickly. In the end, I guess I expected more from a college product selected in the first round.

#20 - Eddie Degerman

I’ve got a think for quirky deliveries. When I was watching the world series, I was surprised by how high of an arm slot Okajima uses out of the pen. I went on youtube but didn’t find any videos that I thought were particularly high quality. In any event, his delivery reminded me of Degerman if slightly less over the top. Still they both have to completely move their head out of the way of their arm as it comes right over the top. Degerman is bound to have control problems. He was held back at the start of this year due to his mechanics going to hell. His walk rate was considerably higher than I’d like in Palm Beach. There’s a chance that he can stay as a starter, but it’s a pretty slim one by all accounts. There’s also a chance that he could be a reliever though and that’s not a bad fallback option to have.

#19 - Jonathan Jay

Kevin Goldstein has labeled him as a 4th outfielder previously. I like Jon Jay in the same way that I liked John Rodriguez: he doesn’t fit the typical mold of a corner outfielder. Poor defender + lots of power is your patent for a corner outfielder these days. Jay is neither of those things. He’d be an above average defender with minimal power for a right or left fielder. When people focus on these things, they often miss, in my opinion, what he can do well. Plus defense with decent speed and above average walk rates doesn’t make you typical but it can make you better than league average. He’s still a bit fringy as prospects go but even after this injury plagued year (shoulder), I’ve high hopes for Jay.

#18 - Jesse Todd

I struggled with the 2007 draftees. In the end, three of them will make my Top 25 but it’s problematic in that I don’t think I’ve got enough statistical evidence to point me in the right direction for them. I also have to wonder if the Cardinals aren’t retarding Todd’s development by placing him in the starters role. There’s an element of trying to beat the system here (i.e. identify players that aren’t used as starters in college and draft them as starters in later rounds while everyone else is drafting the “actual starters”) but he’s got the fastball slider combination to be fast-tracked like Chris Perez was. If he was to be a setup man he could reach the majors as early as 2009.

#17 - Jose Martinez

He’s a contact hitter. He’s an average (at best) defensive shortstop. He hits for some power. He doesn’t walk. Jose Martinez used to be overlooked in our system but after a “breakout” year, he’s being gilded for things that are beyond him. At 21, there’s still room for improvement but I don’t see a lot of upside. There’s a pretty good chance he makes the majors. There’s little chance, in my mind, that he’s more than Aaron Miles with a decent glove and a little pop in his bat (aka an actual utility infielder). Great when he’s league minimum but quickly overpriced when he reaches arbitration.

#16 - Pete Kozma

I’ve come down hard on the Pete Kozma selection for our number 1 draft pick this year. I’ve come down on it really hard. Kozma still makes for a good prospect but there’s no flash with him. He rates above average across the board (except for power). The harping on his intangibles always struck me as if it should somehow compensate for his lack of raw potential. In my mind it doesn’t. If I’m accused of being addicted to upside, that’s not accurate; when you set the ceiling low, however, there isn’t a lot of margin for error. If Kozma doesn’t pan out, it will be interesting to see how it reflects on the Cardinal’s draft team and Jeff Luhnow. Tragically, Kozma is still the best SS prospect in our system, which is a knock on our system and not Kozma.

#15 - Joe Mather

The question is whether he had a breakout year or a career year. In Springfield he posted a .304 ISO with a 12% walk rate. He cut his strikeouts by a third and actually was walking more than whiffing. At Memphis, all his peripherals returned to norms. His walk rate was back around 8%, he was striking out 17% of the time and his ISO was at .200. The power is for real. The walk rate isn’t bad. I’m not sure he can handle the more advanced breaking pitches though. There’s still a chance that he can be a regular corner outfielder. Defensively he’s capable of handling RF and he has the power to play the position. More likely he’ll be a part-timer against lefties and bat off the bench. . . or he won’t make the majors at all. Still, he had a tremendous year to reach this high on the list.

#14 - Mark Hamilton

At one point I had mark Hamilton as low as 2o on my list. Another point he was as high as 6. He’s a defensively challenged first baseman with moderate power. I’m not a fan of his. I don’t expect him to make the majors but I recognize that, for some reason, I’m in the minority with regard to his prospect status. For St. Louis, he’s a trading chip that they’re waiting to ripen. There isn’t a place for him at the big league level since he has no defensive versatility and a switch to the OF would probably be worse than Duncan’s.

#13 - Kenny Maiques

I hope they keep him in the pen. I haven’t seen him as a starter but he often began games before the draft. In an effort to prevent injuries, Maiques was sent to the pen at Quad Cities where he was excellent. He’s got a fastball that sits in the low-90s with late movement and a good slider. The slider isn’t necessarily an out pitch but he has sufficient command of both his pitches that he can locate both of them. He’s likely destined for a set-up role but watching him pitch, I thought he had the stuff to be a decent closer.

#12 - Mitchell Boggs

Why does Mitchell Boggs make my list when other starting pitchers didn’t? 1) He’s always healthy. 2) We know that he can add a few mph in the pen. Those are two very important qualities, especially the second. He’s a groundball pitcher who also misses some bats which is a good combination for success. He doesn’t have a discernible platoon split yet, which is something else that bodes well. I’m not enamored with reports of his pure stuff although the velocity is there but he could see time in the STL rotation in 2009.

#11 - Jarrett Hoffpauir

Another prospect that floated up and down my list from as high as number 5 to as low as number 20. There isn’t a ton of upside with Hoffpauir but he’s very close to being major league ready. He had a breakout season at Springfield much like Mather. That was contributed to by a lucky BABIP to a certain degree. The difference between what Hoffpauir has done in the past and what he’s done this year is pretty striking though. His line drives went up, which would lead to a higher BABIP, and helps him maintain his high batting average. His walk rates haven’t changed and they are the key to his success. Walking around 12% of the time pushes his OBP north of .380 and makes him an above average offensive player (relative to position he’s even better). His numbers at Memphis didn’t take the same hit that Mather’s did and he’s currently playing in the AFL. In the end, I expect him to be an everyday 2B with a .290/.370/.420 line with around 10 HRs. Basically, he’s a monumental step forward from what we’ve been subjected to at the keystone for the last few years.

#10 - PJ Walters

I wanted to rate Walters lower than this, I really did. 85 mph fastballs are not characteristic of major league pitches. Anecdotal examples aside, they just aren’t. Walters relies on his extreme control and ability to locate his pitches at will to get batters out. And that’s just what he did posting a walk rate under 5% between low and high A ball while striking out more than 25% of the batters he faced. Those are remarkable numbers. He’s someone who will have to continually overcome his skeptics because his pure stuff wouldn’t seem to translate to the numbers he’s posting.

#9 - Allen Craig

I’m a Craig fan while not being a Hamilton fan because Craig has at least some modicum of chance to stay at 3rd. Even if he moves to first, he’s probably still better defensively than Hamilton and I don’t think his bat is any worse. That chance that he can stay at 3rd makes a big difference though. He went through some injury problems this year but posted good power, decent walk rates and nice line drive power over the course of the season. Not surprisingly, his numbers outside of Palm Beach were considerably better than at home. He could be poised for a 30+ HR season at Springfield next year if he stays healthy.

#8 - Jason Motte

Motte features a mid-nineties fastball that touches 98. Let’s just do a quick thought exercise: 98mph fastball + no command = Brandon Morrow. I don’t particularly worry about Motte not having any breaking or offspeed pitches. If he can locate his fastball, he’s probably capable of being in the bullpen right now. The Mariners drafted Morrow and threw him directly into their pen. The idea that every player has to be utterly refined before they reach the majors is wrong. Motte’s unheralded relative to Chris Perez (who has a very good breaking ball that Motte lacks) but I think Motte is closer to MLB ready. He doesn’t have the upside that Perez may have, unless he suddenly develops an average complimentary pitch, but he’s another in a solid crop of relievers that the Cardinals should begin mixing into their pen as they phase out the Springers and Franklins of the world.

#7 - Clayton Mortensen

I finally figured out what it is that Mortensen is doing that has caught me so of guard: not walking people. Reports of him heading into the draft mentioned his plus fastball but that he had average secondary stuff and bad command. I’m not sure if the Cardinals changed something in his delivery or if it’s a small sample size fluke but that’s not something I expected out of him. If the command stays, he’s potentially a front of the rotation starter with the ability to miss bats and get groundballs in droves. Next year is important and I’d like to see him start at Palm Beach before midseason. I like this more than the Kozma selection, which is a reversal from my opinion around draft time.

#6 - Tyler Herron

He struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings. A sinking fastball with an average curve and change plus (yet again) surprisingly good command accounted for Herron really making a mark this year. He pitched the whole season in QC — most of which was spent in that piggyback setup. I’m not sure what effect that had on players stats. In the long run, I think it’s probably better for their arms but also pads their numbers a bit so don’t be surprised if Herron and other QC starters take a step back next year. Herron doesn’t have the pure stuff of other pitchers in the system but he’s a more refined package at this point.

#5 - Adam Ottavino

A fastball that sits in the low 90s and a slider to complement it are the core of Ottavino’s repertoire. Command is a question (as it so often seems to be) but the movement that he gets on his pitches compensates. He doesn’t have to be as precise as a PJ Walters; finding the strike zone with his pitches will be key. He’s been labeled a mid-rotation starter to a middle reliever. I lean more toward the mid-rotation starter but I’m hopeful that he can add an offspeed pitch to go with his breaking stuff.

#4 - Chris Perez

I’ve had the same song and dance from the very beginning with Perez. His command sucks. It’s the difference between him being Jorge Julio versus Jose Valverde. While it isn’t a huge concern for he, his GB rate took a nose dive this year at Springfield. It rebounded in Memphis but the number of innings he pitched at each spot prevents us from drawing anything conclusive. He’s going to be a major league, the question is really whether he’s going to be a closer or not.

#3 - Bryan Anderson

Scouting reports cite Anderson as turning into a plus offensive prospect — enough so that it’s possible that he could switch positions. The questions mostly lie with his defense behind the plate. Not surprisingly, I really don’t have any concerns about his defense because catcher defense is overrated and he’s not that bad behind the plate. I’m still waiting for that gap-to-gap power to develop that was advertised. Both his walk-rate and strikeout rate went in the wrong direction this year at Springfield. Neither are terrible and he hit nearly .300 but wasn’t the offensive force that I had hoped to see. Still relative to catching prospects, he’s a very good one.

#2 - Jaime Garcia

Damn that balky elbow. It’s hard to know exactly where to put Garcia. If he had required surgery, he wouldn’t have made my top 5. The organization is saying all the right things right now — “he’ll be ready at the start of next season”, “he just took some time to rest and rehab his elbow”, etc. — but I’m still very concerned. All that aside, Garcia is the most polished starter in the system. He features a sinking fastball with a plus-curveball as a real outpitch. He held his own at Springfield last year and it’s possible he could start in Memphis. (Hell, it’s not like we have pitching prospects blocking him in Memphis.)

#1 - Colby Rasmus

There isn’t a player in the major leagues that I would trade straight up for Colby Rasmus right now. Not one. Rasmus is a true centerfielder with 30 HR power. He’ll hit for average, he takes walks and he runs the bases well. He’s a perennial all-star in the making and the player that is most likely to revive the major league team on arrival. The combination of speed, power and premium defense is hard to find and Rasmus is going to be that for 6 cost-controlled years. He’s the only truly elite talent in the system and if the Cardinals were to trade him, I’d honestly take a hiatus as a fan. He’s that good.