Future Redbirds

Something that may not have been clear from the get go is that erik and I have not seen each other’s lists prior to making our own. We each made them separately and still haven’t shared them. At the end, I’ll line them up side by side as well as all the other important prospect lists that come out over the course of the year.

#20 - Eddie Degerman

I’ve got a think for quirky deliveries. When I was watching the world series, I was surprised by how high of an arm slot Okajima uses out of the pen. I went on youtube but didn’t find any videos that I thought were particularly high quality. In any event, his delivery reminded me of Degerman if slightly less over the top. Still they both have to completely move their head out of the way of their arm as it comes right over the top. Degerman is bound to have control problems. He was held back at the start of this year due to his mechanics going to hell. His walk rate was considerably higher than I’d like in Palm Beach. There’s a chance that he can stay as a starter, but it’s a pretty slim one by all accounts. There’s also a chance that he could be a reliever though and that’s not a bad fallback option to have.

#19 - Jonathan Jay

Kevin Goldstein has labeled him as a 4th outfielder previously. I like Jon Jay in the same way that I liked John Rodriguez: he doesn’t fit the typical mold of a corner outfielder. Poor defender + lots of power is your patent for a corner outfielder these days. Jay is neither of those things. He’d be an above average defender with minimal power for a right or left fielder. When people focus on these things, they often miss, in my opinion, what he can do well. Plus defense with decent speed and above average walk rates doesn’t make you typical but it can make you better than league average. He’s still a bit fringy as prospects go but even after this injury plagued year (shoulder), I’ve high hopes for Jay.

#18 - Jesse Todd

I struggled with the 2007 draftees. In the end, three of them will make my Top 25 but it’s problematic in that I don’t think I’ve got enough statistical evidence to point me in the right direction for them. I also have to wonder if the Cardinals aren’t retarding Todd’s development by placing him in the starters role. There’s an element of trying to beat the system here (i.e. identify players that aren’t used as starters in college and draft them as starters in later rounds while everyone else is drafting the “actual starters”) but he’s got the fastball slider combination to be fast-tracked like Chris Perez was. If he was to be a setup man he could reach the majors as early as 2009.

#17 - Jose Martinez

He’s a contact hitter. He’s an average (at best) defensive shortstop. He hits for some power. He doesn’t walk. Jose Martinez used to be overlooked in our system but after a “breakout” year, he’s being gilded for things that are beyond him. At 21, there’s still room for improvement but I don’t see a lot of upside. There’s a pretty good chance he makes the majors. There’s little chance, in my mind, that he’s more than Aaron Miles with a decent glove and a little pop in his bat (aka an actual utility infielder). Great when he’s league minimum but quickly overpriced when he reaches arbitration.

#16 - Pete Kozma

I’ve come down hard on the Pete Kozma selection for our number 1 draft pick this year. I’ve come down on it really hard. Kozma still makes for a good prospect but there’s no flash with him. He rates above average across the board (except for power). The harping on his intangibles always struck me as if it should somehow compensate for his lack of raw potential. In my mind it doesn’t. If I’m accused of being addicted to upside, that’s not accurate; when you set the ceiling low, however, there isn’t a lot of margin for error. If Kozma doesn’t pan out, it will be interesting to see how it reflects on the Cardinal’s draft team and Jeff Luhnow. Tragically, Kozma is still the best SS prospect in our system, which is a knock on our system and not Kozma.