[Update - 4:47pm] I’m a little concerned that my posting this will cause a deluge of e-mails to this poor guy’s inbox. . .but what they hey — it’s not my inbox! Bryan Anderson has a journal at the USA Baseball Team site (hat tip, SleepyCA). Quoting Bryan:
So now I’m sitting in my hotel room in beautiful Scottsdale, Ariz. We are here practicing for a week to get ready. I’m going to go eat with Chris Perez. He was my roommate for most of the season last year and he is also going to Taiwan to play for Team USA.
I’m in a hurry now, so I have to go. But feel free send me some e-mails and I’ll try to answer some of them in future journals.
It’s pretty exciting that we should get a glimpse into one of our premier prospect’s life over the next month or so. Hopefully, Team USA kicks some a$$ with Bryan leading the way! [/Update]
In Goold’s Birdland article today, which discusses the fate of Mozeliak, there’s some notes about the minor leagues. I want to comment quickly about the front office situaiton before I move on though. I’ve tried to stay out of most of the frackas because so much of it is happening behind closed doors that I don’t know enough to comment on it. Two quick points and this is the last I’ll say about either situation:
- I hope La Russa makes good on his promise to use young talent. People will argue that he’s willing to use top-notch talent from young players. Frankly, he should be willing to use the better player regardless of age. Even if Jarrett Hoffpauir isn’t going to be a superstar (and he’s not), he’s a better bench option than Aaron Miles (who is heading for arbitrartion). Players like Worrell and Perez are better options than the Jimenez’ and Springer’s of the world. Using role players that make league minimum is going to be as important to the Cardinals moving forward as playing Colby Rasmus everyday in 2009. La Russa’s a good manager; certainly good enough that he doesn’t harm the Cardinals with his on the field decisions. He’s good with a bullpen and he utilizes his bench well (even if I disagree with the composition of that bench), but he needs to be committed to a degree of player development.
- As for the GM interviews, if it were me, I’d be frustrated that a large portion of my front office is already decided for me. Furthermore, this situation seems to be tailor made for a repeat of what got Walt fired. Factions between the old (Jocketty) and the new (Luhnow) tore the organization apart. Now we are establishing the a different but no less significant dichotomy between the new GM’s personel and the old front office personel who are already acquainted and used to working with Mozeliak and Luhnow. DeWitt is asking someone to come on board and share responsibilities with someone that they a) may not know very well and b) may have very different opinions on how to run the organization. This is a recipe for more drama like we all saw in 2007.
Anyway, Goold provides a list of those players susceptible to the Rule V draft this year. The big names being Joe Mather, Jason Motte, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Mark Worrell. There’s a few players that probably won’t be poached because of injuries (Pomeranz & Sillman) and some that are a little too far down the farm to worry about yet (McClellan, Haberer, Scherer). Goold mentions that Mike Parisi might get a 40-man roster but I’m hopeful that’s not the case. Parisi hasn’t shown that he can handle AAA much less major league pitchers yet and there are better prospects to protect. Given another year in Memphis, Parisi might show himself to be a servicable 5th starter, which is probably his ceiling, but by then Mitchell Boggs and Jaime Garcia will hopefully be ready as well. Parisi just doesn’t strike me as someone that we need to worry about protecting during the Rule V draft.
If I were Baltimore or the Nationals or another team that is in rebuilding mode and can afford some patience with players, I’d try and snatch some of the Cardinal’s relief prospects like Scherer and McClellan and see if they can’t stick in the back end of a bullpen. Of course, I don’t think those teams will do that, but I think they should.
I also stumbled across this interesting article on Baseball America. We often here that the Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the farm systems (and they have in the past) to which Cardinal fans often retort that the farm system is underrated and has produced plenty of players over the years. A snippet of what their list did:
Plenty of 40-man roster studies have detailed the raw number of players developed by each of the 30 organizations, but we wanted to look at it from a different angle. Specifically, we sought to find out just how successful the developed players have been, looking for quality and quantity. To do so, we quantified success in terms of playing time—plate appearances for hitters and innings pitched for pitchers—because a player has to display a level of competence to keep his job. After all, it’s easy to replace incompetence with less-experienced, and thus cheaper, incompetence.
Players on 40-man rosters as of mid-March were considered, with each credited to his signing organization. But there’s a twist: Only players signed since 1995 were considered, to better illustrate the teams’ recent player development acumen. For example, we didn’t think the Pirates should still be getting credit for nabbing Barry Bonds in the 1985 draft.
Using this system they rough out the number of position players and pitchers that have come from each organization. The Cardinal’s rank 11th on this list which isn’t bad but also exposes one of the flaws of the organization. The ranking is heavily dependent on the fact that the team has developed 26 position players compared to just 10 pitchers (tied for the lowest number of pitchers produced). Now those position players accumulated 41.8 seasons and the pitchers produced 18.7 seasons (which is around middle of the pack). A lot of that pitching comes from Matt Morris who as a starting pitcher racked up some significant season totals.
Again, this shows the flaw of our farm system and one that may well be exposed the next few years. If Chris Carpenter doesn’t return to ace-like form, and even as he ages the next few years, the Cardinals may be hard pressed to find any top of the rotation pitchers. Anthony Reyes was widely regarded as being a front-line starter as recently as last offseason, but things haven’t worked out on that front. Adam Wainwright put together a very nice year but I’m skeptical that he can maintain his HR/FB % which was a big part of his success. Even then, Wainwright came over in a trade from Atlanta and wasn’t really a product of our farm system. The best bets down on the farm right now to develop into something resembling a front of the rotation starter are Jaime Garcia (elbow problems) and Adam Ottavino. Clayton Mortenson and Tyler Herron are both a bit further off.
There’s a chance that one of these players could become front-line material but the Cardinals need to make a concerted effort at improving their drafting of starting pitchers. Developing players like Rick Ankiel or Anthony Reyes to match the premier starting pitchers emerging on other teams is vitally important to the long term success of the organization. Whether that means forking out the cash for the Ankiel/Porcello/Miller/Brackman ’s of the world or simply identifying other underappreciated talents is something I don’t know. I do know that starting pitching is key to good baseball though; I’m worried that the Cardinals don’t have enough of it down on the farm.
Filed under: analysis
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
The problem with Hoff over Miles as a backuo is that Hoff doesn’t have much experience playing positions other than 2B and I believe his range at SS may be limited. for me the dynamic for Miles is like this: If you go with Eck, Renteria, or some other experienced player at SS, then you let Miles walk and have Ryan be the backup. If you go with Ryan as the primary SS candidate, then you keep Miles for his experience.
AS for the Rule 5 draft. I’d originally thought Pomeranz wouldn’t be protected becaus eof his injury but he seems to be throwing pretty good in AZ so I may have to reconsider. Of course, Like Parisi, you have to ask how much he would be missed. I also originally thought McClellen would be protected as I thought teams might have thought that even though he pitched well this year he might be even stronger next year being another year removed from surgery. However, he seems to be struggling in AZ so now I don’t know if they should protect him. My gut now says you only protect him if you think he has starter potential. Of course a lot depends on how many spots they end up having open on the roster.
I think there could be advantages for the new GM having a staff in place at least for this year. If we get a guy that has focused mostly on development, having a guy like Mo that may have more experience at contract negotiations could be good. Another critical opening will be the minor league coordinator - Riggleman’s old job. I wonder wether the new GM will have final say on that or whether Luhnow will. I think the Luhnow situation is going to be the most critical management test but I’m also sure that will be discussed during any interviews.
oh, yes. we will have to ask mr. anderson for a moment of his time to speak w/us here at FR.
“Players like Worrell and Perez are better options than the Jimenez’ and Springer’s of the world.”
I don’t think there is any chance that Worrell is better than Springer at this point. Perez has a chance to be, but he’s not there either. Next year he should be, and he might be by mid-season next year (or even early on if he gets things figured out in the off-season and has a good spring training) but he isn’t a better option right now.
No argument about jimenez.
The problem with Hoff over Miles as a backuo is that Hoff doesn’t have much experience playing positions other than 2B and I believe his range at SS may be limited.
Miles is terrible at SS and barely adequate at 2B. Hoffpauir really isn’t a significant downgrade defensively.
I don’t think there is any chance that Worrell is better than Springer at this point.
Springer was excellent last year . . . and it was totally aberrant with the last 3 years of his career. The odds of him posting another sub-4 FIP aren’t very good. Again, the huge strides in his FIP came, in large part, from the very low HR/FB %. Relievers aren’t subject to the same kind of norms as starters in this category but I’d bet that Springer is closer to 10% than 3% next year. Given their respective age and cost, I don’t have a problem saying that Worrell is as likely to be equably valuable in the bullpen next year as Springer. Worrell is dominant facing right-handers thanks to his quirky sidearm delivery. I wouldn’t let him face a left ever but he could be a useful part of the major league bullpen as early as next year and Springer could turn into a pumpkin in a flash.
Some people would disagree with you about how productive Worrell will be in the big leagues. It’s a pretty low percentage of guys with quirky deliveries that fool major league hitters. Chad Bradford is more of an exception than a rule.
I don’t know that Worrell becomes a big leaguer - maybe for one year. I guess we’ll see.
Erik, I don’t see the new GM as having such a big handicap. You need some continuity in an organization during a change of leadership.
In my experience, people decide whether they’re committed to the organization or loyal to an outgoing boss. If it’s the latter, they either get sacked along with the boss (like Bruce Manno), or they get marginalized by the new management and find their own way out the door.
But a lot of people will stick around and work enthusiastically with the new boss, either because they love the business, love their jobs, or buy into the new guy’s program and philosophy.
I know my experiences in publishing aren’t exactly analogous, but people are people. You can’t assume people who worked for Jocketty or have their own little fiefdoms within the org won’t do a good job for the new boss.
Todd-
I’m going to have to disagree with you about the guys with quirky deliveries. There are quite a few sidearmers in the big leagues right now, virtually all of whom succeed with deception, rather than great stuff. Hell, Chris Young of the Padres is making it as a starter based on control of average stuff and great deception. Cla Meredith, also of the Padres, has been an extremely valuable reliever. Mike Myers has been throwing 75 mph junk by hitters for more years than I can count. And just for the record, Worrell has very good stuff. His fastball gets up to 91-92, his slider is above average, and his changeup is good, if inconsistent. He should have no problem carving up right handed hitters as a middle reliever.
It’s tough to make it as a starter on deception, when hitters have a chance to see your delivery a couple of times. Out of the bullpen, though, with only one shot at a guy with a funky arm angle, hitters don’t have a chance to figure out a release point, and even average stuff often proves too much to handle.
Just for clarification Lou, those were my words (not erik’s) and I very much hope you are right. I find it unusual for all these different (and prominent) positions to be filled already before the GM has even had a chance to voice their opinion.
Sorry Az!
I’ve never worked in sports, so I’m just guessing, but I’d be surprised if successful organizations typically clean house and tell the new guy to start over. I could see why a really bad franchise would clean house and let the new boss fill every desk with his own peeps. But the Cards aren’t that bad. (I think we all agree on that.)
Plus, it’s hard to imagine a guy like Luhnow, who’s still a relative newbie in baseball, getting so territorial that he’d undermine the new GM. I don’t know the man, but I think anybody in his position would welcome a boss who understands and appreciates what he’s trying to do. It must’ve been hell knowing he was in no-man’s land between the owner and the boss.
I would have to disagree with some of the above-mentioned comments on Parisi. I had the chance to watch him pitch a handful of times in Memphis and I think he most certainly deserves a spot on the 40-man. Hammer Maloney spoke highly of him in an interview. He said that Parisi is probably the closest guy they have to the big leagues and there is a strong liklihood of him pitching in St. Louis next year. If Maloney is saying these things about Parisi, then he’s probably spreading the word on him. I’ve noticed that Parisi is consistently learning and improving and by next year I wouldn’t be surprised if he made it to St. Louis.